NC Democrats poised to gain ground in Congress, but how long will it last?
Democrats are expected to win more North Carolina congressional seats this year, but the gains could be short-lived.
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A pair of races in and outside the Triangle are among the nation’s most competitive and divisive, and they’ll play a role in determining whether Democrats maintain their slim majority in the House.
Democrats currently control five of the state’s 13 seats. After data from the U.S. Census Bureau gave North Carolina an additional seat, the Republican-controlled legislature last year passed a redistricting plan that could have given the GOP up to 11 of the 14 seats.
By the end of Thursday, more than 1.7 million North Carolinians had voted early.
The new map puts Democrats in a position to pick up two additional seats on Tuesday, one in Charlotte and one in Raleigh. While the Charlotte-area seat leans Democratic, a Triangle district covering parts of Wake, Wayne and Harnett counties and all of Johnston Count is a toss-up.
Here’s a breakdown of the state’s congressional races and candidates:
Smith entered the home stretch of her campaign with twice as much money in the bank as Davis, despite raising half as much money as the Democrat from Oct. 1 through Oct. 19.
As of Oct. 20, Davis raised $1.7 million, while Smith took in $2.1 million.
Both are campaigning as the candidate best equipped to tackle rising costs, with Davis presenting himself as best able to get more infrastructure money to the district and Smith advocating for a change in federal leadership to better control the nation’s purse strings.
By the end of Thursday, 121,800 early votes had been cast in the district. Fifty-three percent of early voters were registered Democrats, 24% were Republican and 23% were unaffiliated, according to state voting data. Conservatives traditionally turn out in larger numbers on Election Day.
Ross has served in Congress since January 2021. She has campaigned aggressively on the issue of abortion rights, vowing to ensure women get federal protections to ensure they have access to the medical procedure.
Villaverde is a member of North Carolina's statewide Emergency Response Team and is a former law enforcement officer. She frequently discusses issues of crime and education while on the campaign trail. Since the start of her campaign, she’s taken in less than $140,000, as of Oct. 20, which includes a $55,000 personal loan to her campaign.
Villaverde’s haul pales in comparison to the roughly $2.1 million Ross has received this cycle.
Murphy is a urologist who has served in Congress since 2019. Before that, he was a state representative in the North Carolina General Assembly. He’s campaigned alongside former Trump and stands to benefit from voters’ economic frustrations under President Joe Biden.
Gaskins is a founder of an incarceration reentry nonprofit organization and championing changes to the K-12 educational and criminal justice systems.
She’s raised less than $89,000 this election cycle, far less than Murphy’s $1.8 million.
Geels is a travel nurse with the economy as a central issue to her campaign. She says on her website she’d push for a balanced federal budget that lowers the nation’s outstanding debts.
Through Oct. 19, Geels raised nearly $362,000 and had almost $93,000 left in the bank. Foushee took in about $1.2 million and had more than $170,000 in available cash.
Parrish works in the technology industry and has a vocal presence on social media, where he often discusses his fears about the future of democracy in the country. He criticizes Foxx and other Republicans who voted against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election. He is running to ensure Foxx has a contested general election.
Foxx, who spent a decade in North Carolina’s state Senate before being elected to Congress, is the ranking member of the U.S. House education and labor committee and is seeking to help the GOP retake control of the chamber to hold Biden in check.
Parrish raised less than $30,000 this election cycle and entered Oct. 20 with little more than $10,000 in the bank. Foxx has taken in more than $2 million and has more than $2.6 million in her campaign’s coffers.
Manning is running against Republican combat veteran and political newcomer Christian Castelli and Libertatrian political newcomer Thomas Watercott.
After wrapping up his military service, he served as an advisor to senior military defense officials. After transitioning to civilian life in 2012, he started two small logistics businesses.
Castelli’s website notes he opposes any new tax increases, would work to increase domestic oil production and work to prevent “political indoctrination in curriculum” for young students.
Manning has raised more than $2.9 million this cycle. Through Oct. 19, Castelli and Watercott had taken in $679,000 and $15,000, respectively.
Rouzer has served in the U.S. House since 2015. Before that, he was narrowly defeated in a 2012 congressional race and served four years in the state Senate. Rouzer is running in a slightly less conservative district this year, but the area running from Cumberland to Brunswick counties remains politically favorable to Republicans.
When Graham declared his candidacy last year, he received a warm welcome in a video that has since accumulated more than 5 million views. But revised maps and a competitive primary dwindled his prospects.
Graham is seeking federal recognition of the Lumbee tribe. A member of the tribe himself, he is the lone Native American in North Carolina’s General Assembly. He’s campaigning with increased health care access and reduced costs as a central part of his campaign.
Bishop is an ally of Trump and signed a legal filing in 2020 contesting the results of the presidential election. Bishop went on to oppose the certification process.
Since Biden’s election, Bishop has been known for his aggressive questioning of administration officials during congressional hearings. He’s seeking to restore Republican control of the U.S. House with a message focused on tackling inflation and unlawful border crossings.
Huffman has a sizable social media following and is campaigning with a message focused on restoring federal abortion protections, implementing a Medicare for All health care system and addressing income inequality.
Bishop is the overwhelming favorite to win the race. Through Oct. 19, he raised $1.9 this election cycle and had $1.2 million in available cash. Meanwhile, Huffman took in $93,000 and had less than $14,000 in the bank.
Despite it being a GOP-leaning district with many rural counties that swung heavily for Trump, the district does have some blue pockets with all of Chatham County and parts of Cumberland County.
Clark, who has held elected office since 2013, has bucked his party at times and is widely seen as a moderate candidate. He was among a handful of Democrats who crafted the state budget last year alongside Republicans, which phased out corporate income taxes over the next decade. He’s also championed more funding for the military and pushed for K-12 schools to be reopened as rates of Covid-19 fell.
Hudson is also seen as a more centrist Republican. He’s been in the U.S. House since 2013, slowly climbing the GOP ranks and being selected by his peers last year as the House GOP Conference Secretary. On the legislative front, he has worked to increase pay and improve health care treatment for veterans.
Hudson raised nearly $3 million this election cycle through Oct. 19 and had about $1.6 million cash on hand. Clark raised less than $62,000 and had little more than $3,000 left in the bank.
McHenry, who voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election, has represented western North Carolina in Congress since 2005. The congressman raised $3.5 million this election cycle through Oct. 19 and had nearly $2 million in available cash. Genant had taken in less than $16,000 and had nearly $7,000 in the bank.
Cawthorn’s defeat has made the reliably red district harder to attain for Democrats who hoped that running against a more divisive candidate in Cawthorn would help them win the general election. Edwards is a more disciplined messenger and centrist Republican, making it difficult for Democrats to make a stark contrast.
Democrat Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, a Christian minister and Buncombe County commissioner, is hoping to resonate with locals concerned about the economy, abortion access and K-12 education.
If elected, Beach-Ferrera would work to bring an agricultural processing plant to the region, expand the child tax credit, codify Roe v. Wade and enact universal pre-K.
Libertarian David Adam Coatney is also vying for the seat.
With the backing of prominent GOP lawmakers, including U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, Edwards was able to capture the Republican nomination. He’s campaigned extensively on the issue of immigration, citing a need for greater collaboration between county sheriffs in North Carolina and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Edwards is also looking to bring his business experience to Washington, D.C., if elected. He was a McDonald’s franchise owner and believes voters in the district could benefit from an officeholder that is more focused on serving constituents.
Through Oct. 19, Edwards had raised $1.5 million, which includes $250,000 in personal loans to his campaign. He had almost $221,000 in available cash. Beach-Ferrera took in $2.2 million and had $154,000 in the bank.
Adams has run with abortion access as a central part of her campaign, while her Republican opponent, Tyler Lee, has appealed to the further right end of the GOP.
Adams has represented the western North Carolina district since 2014. Before that, she spent a decade serving in the state House. She entered Oct. 20 with $539,000 in the bank after having raised nearly $903,000 this election cycle. Lee took in more than $206,000 and had less than $2,000 in the bank.
The swing district bends slightly Republican based on past voting trends, but could go either way this election as newcomers to the growing district bring more moderate views. It includes parts of Wake, Wayne and Harnett counties and all of Johnston County.
Hines, a 27-year-old and former N.C. State football player, has embraced the support of Trump and controversial Republican U.S. Reps. Marjorie Taylor-Greene of Georgia and Matt Gatez of Florida. He’s walking a political tightrope of resonating with hardline Republicans without alienating more moderate voters who may dislike Trump’s style and have concerns about electing a politically inexperienced Republican.
Hines insists he will go to Washington, D.C., to not just hold the Biden administration accountable, but also to govern. He cites his experience working at his father’s hard goods licensing company as an asset and said he will work to reign in federal overspending, which he blames in large part for an economic downturn many in the district have seen over the past year.
Meanwhile, Nickel has developed a reputation as one of the legislature’s most liberal lawmakers since joining the chamber in 2019. He is an attorney and Cary resident living outside the district. He said he’s the only serious candidate in the race who could bring forth policy solutions to economically frustrated voters. Like Hines, Nickel has sought to move the ideological middle to appeal to a general election audience.
The race between the two candidates has been free of any allusion of cordiality, as each candidate tries to portray the other as too extreme to represent voters. Nickel points to Hines’ abortion views, refusal to accept the 2020 presidential election results and lack of legislative track record as disqualifying factors. Hines says Nickel would be soft on crime because his law firm represented violent criminals and believes Nickel is the one whose calls for federal abortion protections is out of step with voters. Both candidates dispute those claims.
Through Oct. 19, Hines raised $2.9 million this election cycle, which includes $925,000 in personal loans to his campaign. He also had nearly $157,000 in available cash. Nickel took in almost $3.3 million, which includes $900,000 in personal loans, and had about $390,000 left in the bank.
By the end of Thursday, 127,404 early votes had been cast in the district. Thirty-eight percent of early voters were registered Democrats, 31% were unaffiliated and 30% were unaffiliated, according to state voting data.
While Jackson is expected to defeat Republican Army veteran Pat Harrigan, he insists he’s not taking anything for granted. Indeed, Jackson has continued a retail style of politics similar to that of former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas.
Jackson quickly traversed all 100 counties in the state during his U.S. Senate run and continues to stand on tables, knock on doors and hold events.
Harrigan is presenting himself as the candidate most likely to get the economy back on track. His campaign website notes he and his wife created a small firearms business while he was on active duty. The couple has since purchased a large manufacturing facility in western North Carolina for American-made defense products.
Jackson has served in the state Senate since 2014, where he’s been known to tangle with Republican lawmakers and give animated speeches about equality and voting rights.
Through Oct. 19, Jackson raised $5.5 million— a period that includes his U.S. Senate run that ended in December 2021. By Oct. 20, Jackson had almost $877,000 in available cash. Harrigan had taken in $748,000, which includes $50,000 in personal loans to his campaign. He had almost $206,000 in the bank.
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