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Will 'Super Mario Run' be as successful as 'Pokemon Go'?

Posted December 17, 2016

The new Nintendo mobile game earned 2,850,000 downloads on its first day, which is almost triple the amount of downloads Pokemon Go saw on day one (about 900,000 total). (Deseret Photo)

"Super Mario Run" had a peachy first day of downloads.

As Forbes’ Dave Thier reported, the new Nintendo mobile game earned 2,850,000 downloads on its first day, which is almost triple the amount of downloads "Pokemon Go" saw on Day One (about 900,000 total).

This is good news for the new Nintendo game, but it’s important to remember that iPhone users had a warning about this game’s release date, whereas "Pokemon Go" seemingly appeared out of nowhere, according to Forbes. That game relied “on word of mouth and keyboard to spread naturally,” which lead to 5.6 million downloads on Day Three.

Even though downloads are high, it’s unlikely the game will make much money, either, Thier wrote for Forbes.

“There is a cap on how much money 'Super Mario Run' can make because it uses a traditional pricing model instead of the more popular free to play model. You download a trial version that can be upgraded to a full version for $10, and that's it. No buying coins, toads or anything else, though I wouldn't rule out new levels down the road.”

At best, that means the 2.85 million downloads would earn Nintendo about $28.5 million. No more money to be had, unlike "Pokemon Go," which still earns money to this day. Most recent numbers suggest the game pulls in close to $2 million a day.

"Super Mario Run" isn’t expected to see similar success. Data from Sensor Tower, a research company, estimated that the new game will earn about $71 million in its first month — about half of "Pokemon Go" ($143 million) and less than "Clash Royale" ($107 million).

However, revenue isn’t the entire story. The game can still find success without pulling in as much money. It’s already on pace to hit more downloads.

“This game can still make a lot of money, of course, but it won't be able to generate the consistent income that comes from a successful free to play game,” Thier of Forbes wrote. “I don't know exactly how much I've spent on 'Pokémon Go,' but it's sure more than $10.”

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