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N.C. State researchers expect active hurricane season

Posted April 26, 2010
Updated June 24, 2010

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— Researchers at North Carolina State University on Monday issued a prediction of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin in 2010.

The researchers, led by Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, forecast 15 to 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

The 50-year average is nine to 11 named storms in the Atlantic.

Eight to 11 of the named storms could reach hurricane strength, the researchers said.

There is an 80 percent chance that one of the named storms will make landfall along the southeastern U.S. coast and a 70 percent chance that the storm will arrive as a hurricane, they said.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the researchers expect five to seven named storms, with two to four becoming hurricanes. Three to six of the named storms will make landfall along the Gulf Coast, they said, and there is an 80 percent chance that at least one of those storms will be a hurricane.

The researchers said the Gulf Coast has a 55 percent chance of being hit by at least one major hurricane of Category 3 or higher.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as variables like weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

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  • geosol Apr 26, 2010

    "I was a student of Dr. Xie and I can tell you he is a brilliant man in this field. His prediction is about the best you will find out there. In fact a couple of years ago he got right when everyone else did not." - jgilchr

    That is correct. Dr. Xie's models have consistently outperformed others', such as the infamous Dr. Gray's. I just wish they would stop trying to predict the actual # of storms. That is ridiculous, but i think its OK to mention that the data indicates a higher than normal amount of tropical activity for this season. In spite of what the little right wing "scientists" have been told to think.

  • Malcontent Apr 26, 2010

    "They say the same thing every year. How can I get paid to predict and average to active hurricane season?" rossfranco. Yeah, I know. I'm right with ya. Can I get paid, too? Where do I sign up? :)

  • johnstonredneck Apr 26, 2010

    They ALWAYS expect an active season. No man or computer can predict what God will do.
    The best weather is Eyewitness weather, I open the door,I witness the weather. So far, I have not been wrong.

  • Jimm57 Apr 26, 2010

    I predict WRAL will hype this and their $8 weather call even more now, when you can sign up for FREE at WTVD for the same service

  • CrewMax Apr 26, 2010

    "Geez, some of you people must have gotten your science education from Fox News, or the School of Intelligent Design. Slippery Mercury"

    Or the same place your got your profile.

  • hi_i_am_wade Apr 26, 2010

    It should be an active year. El Nino is fading. El Nino suppresses hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, hurricane intensities should be way down. The ocean is losing a lot of heat, much to the chagrin of global warming believers. The new ARGO buoys show a clear and marked downward spiral of deep ocean water temperatures, which means less energy for hurricanes and colder weather around the world. I expect the NWS to use most of the names, in part because they are now overzealous and name storms even if it is a tropical storm for only a few seconds.

  • Capt Mercury Apr 26, 2010

    Geez, some of you people must have gotten your science education from Fox News, or the School of Intelligent Design.

  • benno Apr 26, 2010

    Why does the news media publish this cxxp? I get so tired of them telling me what is going to happen. Please report on what just happened, thanks.

  • NoFreakinWay Apr 26, 2010

    i bet there are 3 storms and none hit land on east coast.
    as for rain in morrisville on Wednesday,
    no go.
    as for drought reaching record levels this season,
    right on target.

  • WhoMe44a Apr 26, 2010

    I predict that tomorrow there will be oxygen to breathe like today!

    Pay me!

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