WRAL.com: Raleigh, Durham, Fayetteville

WRAL meteorologist Nate Johnson answers your snow questions:

WRAL:
Hi everyone, WRAL meteorologist Nate Johnson will be joining us at 1:30 p.m. today (Jan. 17, 2013) to answer your snow questions. You can start submitting your questions now. Thanks!

WRAL:
By the way, we'll be hosting another live chat about snow tonight from 6:30 to 7 p.m. with meteorologists Greg Fishel and Mike Maze: http://www.wral.com/weather/page/11992269/

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Hello, everyone! Big day here in the WeatherCenter with SNOW in the forecast! I'm ready for your questions now.

Comment From Gary
What time is the snow expected to start?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Gary: We'll have rain this afternoon, and as the cold air moves in, we'll see it begin changing over to snow this evening. I expect that changeover to happen perhaps as soon as 7-9pm here in the Triangle.

Comment From Trey
How much and how fast do you think it will fall?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Trey: We could have an hour or two of snowfall 2-3" per hour snowfall rates in some spots.

Comment From Ryan
Gonna be like 2001....system will stall and dump a ton....please say yes!! :-)

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Ryan: Unlikely. This storm is being driven by a strong and fast-moving upper-level disturbance. It was in MS this morning and is now crossing from AL to GA. So, it's going to be fast.

Comment From Snowman
Is it going to snow in Raleigh?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Snowman: We are very confident in seeing snow here in Raleigh this evening. The catch is the warm ground temperatures will limit how much of it sticks around until tomorrow morning.

Comment From Pam
What do you think SW Chatham County will be getting??? Thank you :)

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Pam: Y'all may have 3-5" of snow fall tonight, of which a couple inches or snow may stick - mostly to your deck, grassy areas, etc.

Comment From MadWolf
Which model are you favoring and why?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
MadWolf: We try to avoid picking a single model, preferring an ensemble approach. Think "strength in numbers". The ensemble has been pretty good for the last couple of days, as well.

Comment From Courtney
What do you think the chances of schools closing tomorrow will be?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Courtney: That's a complex question and takes into account far more than just how much snow falls and sticks. It's certainly more likely the farther north and west of the Triangle you are. I would expect quite a few systems, especially from Raleigh north and west, running on a delay tomorrow AM.

Comment From Angie
Nate I have heard mention of "Thunder Snow" do you think that is likely?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Angie: They're getting some of that right now in northern AL and south-central TN. I suspect we'll have a few isolated reports of thunder with this, and with those small pockets, the snow will fall fast and furious!

Comment From Jimmy Balls
will there be a lot of ice????

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Jimmy: Not initially. The changeover will be pretty clean - from all rain to all snow for the most part, with perhaps a very brief spit of sleet in the middle. Much of it will melt overnight, but as temperatures fall - after the snow ends - we could see it re-freezing into a slick spots tomorrow AM, especially on bridges.

Comment From Tracie
About when should it start in Durham and when will the heaviest be? I love watching it :)

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tracie: Changeover for you is probably 7-9pm, and it will be all over by just after midnight. Plan on staying up a bit late tonight, and you will be rewarded.

Comment From Snowman
Why are we having so little snow these last couple years compared to before? Is it global warming?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Snowman: Not particularly GW - which, by the way, won't mean we stop having winters. Lots of factors at play, though, including overall weather patterns which haven't been particularly favorable in recent years.

Comment From Tania McLeod
Elizabeth Gardner mentioned that the chance of getting snow is lessened if the cold air flow is delayed. Any update on that status?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tania: Yes - this kind of event is all about the cold air chasing the moisture. If the cold air is late, and some of the models are hinting it could be delayed, the window for how much snow we get will be narrowed.

Comment From Callie
What time tomorrow morning should the temp rise enough to melt the bridges/overpasses.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Callie: Mid-late morning. We'll likely have slick spots across much of our area in the morning.

Comment From Torrie
Any chance Johnston county will see anything?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Torrie: Expect flakes to fly this evening, but you probably won't see much accumulation in JoCo.

Comment From Todd
What is the expectation of snowfall in Oxford/Granville County?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Todd: Up to 3-6" falls, 2-4 sticks on the grass for you.

Comment From Kanisha
How fast will the temperatures drop?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Kanisha: Temperatures will begin dropping later this afternoon and will drop this evening. We should hover around or just above freezing for much of the night, and when the cold air finally takes over, we'll drop below freezing after midnight.

Comment From Tonya
What are the chances of me buildiing a small snowman for my little one and him still seeing it when he wakes up at 8am ( I am in North Raleigh)

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
I should note that in the heavier snow bands, we can expect the temperature to drop a degree or two - which might affect how much snow tries to "stick" - but as the snow lets up, temperatures may come back up a bit.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tonya: To be safe, I'd build it tonight and bring it into the freezer. Ground temps will still be well above freezing throughout this event and will continue to resist the snow.

Comment From Marlania
Should this be considering one of those things that people go to the grocery store and buy all the bread, milk, and water or would it not be considered that sever?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Marlania: Let me tell you what I'm doing differently: Nothin'. I'll take extra care on the roads tonight and tomorrow, but there is no need to make a run on bread and milk for this one.

Comment From Lena
Is this possibly our last chance for snow this year?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Lena: Too early to tell, but the pattern shifts much colder next week... winter isn't over yet!

Comment From Holly
Do the school systems stay in contact with you guys to determine whether they should do delays/closings or pretty much make the determination themselves based on what they see outside?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Holly: Some do, others communicate with other stations, others talk to the NWS. Each system is different and handles these differently, but each is talking to someone - if not multiple someones :)

Comment From Richard Dribbles
Will this snow be suitable for sledding? Or will it be that gross wet snow??

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Richard: Probably not great sledding snow.

Comment From Jana
When in history for NC was our latest snowfall in the season?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Jana: Mid-April was the latest measurable... we've had flurries as late as early May.

Comment From Cheryl
Sounds like the wet, heavy stuff. Power failures expected?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Cheryl: It's not out of the question, but i would expect any outages to be very limited.

Comment From Scott NC State student
What makes predicting snow accumulations difficult?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Scott: Predicting snow is every bit as challenging as predicting rain - you need moisture and lift in the right combination - but you also have the added complexity of needing cold air... and the fact that the same amount of water may make an insignificant amount of rain but could make major snow don't help.

Comment From Thomas
Why does the National Weather Service have parts of Raleigh recieving 2-4 inches of snow but Apex getting 1-3. Such a difference in only couple of miles.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Thomas: The cut-off for how much snow accumulates will be very sharp due to how this system will be set up. Not out of the question that one side of a county could wake up with a few inches but another end of the same county wakes up with wet grass and nothing else.

Comment From Kirk Sniffles
I work a late shift and will need to drive in the middle of the night. What time is snowfall predicted to be the heaviest?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Kirk: This evening. Snow's all done by 1-3am (West to east across our area). Be careful for slick spots where melted snow has re-frozen.

Comment From Charlie
Is there a "rain gauge" type device used to determine the amount of actual snowfall, before melt off? I have always been curious out actual measurements of snowfall were determined.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Charlie: We measure snow a couple different ways, including letting it melt and seeing how much water it melted down to. Measuring snow accumulations is tricker. See this from the NWS http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=snow_measurement

Comment From TONY
WHEN AND HOW WAS R RECORD SNOWFALL!

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tony: Our record 24-hour snow fall was back in January of 2000. This will NOT be a repeat of that event.

Comment From Ruth
How snow should we expect in person county

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Ruth: The clouds will probably snow out 3-6", of which 2-4" will stick, mostly on grassy areas, decks, etc.

Comment From TONY
I BET THE FISH IS HAPPY!

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tony: He loves the snow but is always skeptical until the flakes fly. He's here looking at model data and getting ready for the evening news.

Comment From NCMike
What is the outlook for Wilson? I am guessing this side of I95 will see very little?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
NCMike: Probably a dusting to an inch or two for you folks... the window for when the snow starts and ends is later for y'all 9-10pm for the changeover with it ending ~2am.

Comment From Malcolm
What is the difference between a Winter Storm Watch & Warning?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Malcom: Watch = it's possible and we're watching out. Warning = it's happening and could be a big deal.

Comment From Brian
Any chance you're wrong about your predictions in the Raleigh area

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Brian: A friend of mine said today, and I agree 100%, that "Southern snow forecasting is not about being right; you won't be. It's about minimizing how wrong you are."

Comment From Torrie
My brother claims that it has been flurries in Garner already...is that possible?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Torrie: Unlikely for now.

Comment From Eddie Clark
Man im hoping or praing for just 1 inch in northern fayetteville i HOPE

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Eddie: Plan on going out this evening to watch it - no guarantees it will be on the ground when you get up tomorrow AM.

Comment From Thomas
Where is the cold air now. Triad looks to be in 40's, Triangle is around 50's.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Thomas: KY, TN, AL, MS, & OH.

Comment From Chris
Is this a watch or warning? Im watching outside and don't see any snow!

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Thomas: Starting to get snow falling in SW VA and in the higher elevs of NC.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Chris: Most of the area from Raleigh N or W is under a winter storm warning for the possibility of 2-4" of snow.

Comment From TONY
DO U LIKE THE SNOW!

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tony: I like it - my only reservation is that it means extra hours at work instead of playing in it with my daughter.

Comment From Rob
Why is there a "Winter Storm Warning" when this is boing to be such a non-event as you guys are saying?

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Rob: The NWS has guidelines for when they issue certain warnings, and this event - with up to 2-4" of snow accumulating in grassy areas - meets those criteria. That's not to say we won't get snow or that it won't stick, of course... but the warm ground temps and short duration of this snow will keep it from being a huge deal here.

Comment From Frank
Why doesn't WRAL use the name for the storm? It seems you guys are slow to react to this information!

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Frank: While we do all our own forecasting here - and feel free to disagree with the NWS from time to time! - we defer to them on what storms get names and whether warnings are posted, in the interest of being consistent with them and other folks. They don't name winter storms, so we don't, either.

WRAL:
Ok, last question.

Comment From TONY
WILL YALL HAVE HOURLY UPDATES!

Comment From Rob
Thanks for your time Nate.

Comment From Thomas
Thanks Nate

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Tony: We will update the situation using the crawl at the bottom of the screen, of course... we'll hit this hard during our evening newscasts - 5/5:30/6, 10, 11, etc. And will update on TV beyond that as needed. Of course, we'll have Live DUALDoppler 5000 and updated information via WRAL.com, Twitter, and Facebook.

WRAL:
Thanks for all the great questions, and thanks to Nate for taking time to be with us today. Stay safe everyone.

Nate Johnson (@nsj):
Thanks, everyone! Hope you enjoy the snow!