Tropical Discussion

809

axnt20 knhc 011730

twdat

Tropical weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

205 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2009

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central

America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections

of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast

from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based

on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather

observations...and radar.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery

through 1715 UTC.

...The ITCZ...

the ITCZ axis is centered along 5n10w to the Equator along

21w...to 3s30w...to northeastern Brazil near 5s38w. Scattered

moderate to isolated strong convection is from 6n-1s between

3w-12w. Isolated moderate convection is from 1n-4s between

28w-44w.

...Discussion...

The Gulf of Mexico...

as of 1500 UTC...a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle

to the Bay of Campeche along 31n85w 26n90w 19n96w. A weak 1007

mb low is embedded on the front near 22n94w. Scattered moderate

convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida from

28n-31n between 82w-85w. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds

are over the N Gulf N of 27n. Winds are 15-20 kt on both sides

of the cold front. In the upper levels...mostly zonal flow

prevails. Significant upper level moisture is over the N Gulf N

of 27n. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf. Expect...the

surface low to dissipate and the front to retrograde over the

next 24 hours. The resultant warm front will extend from N

Florida to Louisiana with convection. A new cold front will also

be over inland S Texas moving towards the Gulf.

The Caribbean Sea...

fresh tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with very little

shower activity. Scattered showers are over the Lesser Antilles

E of 62w...over Hispaniola...and over E Cuba. In the upper

levels...an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean

along 80w with strong subsidence suppressing convection.

Expect...little change over the next 24 hours.

The Atlantic Ocean...

a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32n46w to 26n60w

26n68w. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. A 1024

mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35n17w. A ridge axis extends

SW from the high to 25n45w. An area of African dust is over the

E Atlantic from the Equator to 15n E of 30w. In the upper

levels...a ridge is over the W Atlantic N of 20n between

60w-80w. An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of

20n between 50w-60w. Zonal flow is over the remainder of the

Atlantic. Expect the cold front over the central Atlantic to

move E to 32n40w with showers in 24 hours.

$$

Formosa