WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

Is there any possible to tell what the weather will be like June 7, 2008. We are planning an outdoor wedding. I won't hold you to it! LOL, just an educated guess (which I know ya'll are WELL educated and talented, etc. etc...)

Posted March 2, 2008

MIKE MOSS SAYS:         Patricia,      I'm afraid that's way beyond the reach of any kind of actual weather forecast. What we can do is take a look at climatology (i.e. "normal" conditions for that date) and see what kind of large scale seasonal signals might be reflected in climate outlooks for that period.

In particular, for June 7th in the Raleigh area, the normal high is 84 with a standard deviation of +/- 7 degrees, while the normal low is 62 +/- 6 degrees. The lowest high on record for that date is 61 and the hottest is 96, and the coldest low has been 47 while the warmest low has been 71.

As for precipitation, we are subject to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that time of year, with hit and miss coverage that ends up giving a particular location just over a 20% chance of rainfall of one tenth of an inch or greater on a given day, so that this tends to happen about 6-7 days in June.

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the May-June-July period (a single month is too volatile for skillful predictions that far in advance) calls for equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperature and precipitation, meaning that there is no large scale forcing pattern evident at this time that would tilt the odds toward more or less rain, or toward warmer or cooler temperatures. There is a La Nina patern in place in the Pacific at this time that is expected to linger through spring and perhaps into early summer. However, while La Nina correlates reasonable well with some areas of above or below normal rain and temperature for parts of the U.S. during the mid-fall to mid-spring period, it does not impose much of an influence during the warmer months that is useful for predictive purposes.

Hope that helps, and for you or anyone else whow would like to looks some of this up for other dates or events, here are some of the online resources I used to find that information...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://ols.nndc.noaa.gov/plolstore/plsql/olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00095-PUB-A0001#TABLES

http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical_nc.html

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