WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

Do you have any idea what the forecast for Thanksgiving may be this far in advance?

Posted November 10, 2007
Updated November 11, 2007

MIKE MOSS SAYS:       Scott,     I'm afraid specific forecasts that far in advance (twelve days as I write this) simply wouldn't have much meaning and would likely change several times before Thanksgiving arrived. While there are some weather patterns that foster predictions out to a week or so in advance that may work out okay, in many cases about three to five days in advance is the point where you can begin to put more stock in the specifics of a forecast (of course, the nature of the atmosphere/land/ocean system is such that even some of those will not work out, but on the whole, within that time frame forecasts will be more correct than the alternatives of assuming weather will stay the same as it currently is, assuming the weather will match a climatological average for the date, or making a random guess).

UPDATE:   One thing I usually like to add to answers like this and forgot to include is a mention of the climatology for the day in question. Thanksgiving this year is on 22 November, and for the Raleigh area the normal low for that date is 38 degrees and the normal high is 60, both with a standard deviation of about +/- 10 degrees. The probability of receiving measurable rain that day is just under 30%, while the probability of receiving at least a quarter inch of rain on that day is a bit under 15%.


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  • wsareweak Nov 12, 2007

    It may be windy or calm, sunny or cloudy with possible showers,or not, it could even have a chance of continued weather. That would be called a "weather event"

  • JustBreathe Nov 12, 2007

    Maybe we can change the name of the favorite Christmas Carol...I'm Dreaming of a Rainy Christmas!

  • br549znc Nov 12, 2007

    I predict it will be sunny, or cloudy, or warm, or cold, and it may or may not rain.

  • gopanthers Nov 12, 2007

    I predict it will either be rainy - cloudy or sunny.

  • my3kidz Nov 11, 2007

    Wouldn't it be fantastic to have a hurricane sit on top of us over the next week and into the holidays? We so desperately need the rain!

  • AKA PikeMom Nov 11, 2007


  • wsareweak Nov 11, 2007

    I predict we will have weather on Thanksgiving.

  • drnc Nov 11, 2007

    I'd be interested in knowing why the tropical predictions were so far off this season? I'd also like to know if the warmest years on record coincided with above average hurricane activity?

  • Made In USA Nov 11, 2007

    Well, I can say for certain where the warm weather will be. You'l be able to find it in many people's kitchens right before - and during - Thanksgiving Day.

  • dontlookback Nov 11, 2007

    Go to accuweather.com - they predict 15 days out and I have found them to be pretty accurate for the most part!