I'm trying to plan some boating in VA and NC starting in early September and into October. Statistically, when have we had the late hurricanes?
Posted August 9, 2007
MIKE MOSS SAYS: Charles, Statistics on the timing of hurricanes affecting North Carolina and nearby areas are usually broken down month-by-month, showing a strong peak covering August and September, with the numbers falling off by about half for October (more common in the first half of the month than the second) and then very little activity for November in most years. As with any statistical probability, there is no guarantee for a given season, but chances become pretty slim by later in October. It is worth noting, though, that by October and November storms, though few in number, become more likely to form nearby and perhaps with less advance notice than the long-track August and September storms that often form far out in the eastern Atlantic. See the attached graphic (from the NC State Climate Office) for a look at the average distribution of hurricanes affecting NC throughout the year. For a good feel as to how the formation regions for tropical cyclones vary throughout the year, and the typical tracks that result, scroll down about halfway at www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml to the section entitled "Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks by Month."