Published: 2007-03-17 10:41:55
Updated: 2007-03-17 10:41:55
Posted March 17, 2007
MIKE MOSS SAYS: Amy, I'm afraid that any attempt to choose the date according to temperature this far in advance has to be based on the climatological normals for that date, with the understanding that there is a chance the actual temperature could end up well above or below that normal value. Long term forecasts for above or below normal temperatures are so general as to be of no real use when it comes to a specific date, and shorter term forecasts that are likely to be more reliable will not be available until a week or less before the event.
Here are some resources you might like to make use of as October gradually draws closer:
1. For climatological planning purposes, you can retrieve daily average temperature and precipitation info for various stations around the state from
Just click on the site of interest, and then scroll down to the "Daily Tabular Data" and "Daily Summary Stats" links along the left hand side of the page. For that time of year, there is almost a 70% chance that the high temperature will fall somewhere within +/- 8 degrees of the average shown for each date.
2. For climate outlooks months in advance, see
and click the outlook centered on October. These are very general, as noted above.
3. Once you're within a few weeks, you can check the following products, also fairly general
4. At 5 days or so in advance, meaningful specific forecasts will become available and typically become more confident/reliable as the day draws closer.