WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

I see (on weather.com) that the forecast for the last Friday in Dec. is for rain & SNOW showers. Is this upcoming weather system set up anything at all like the 2' snow storm we had a couple of years ago? I know you wouldn't forecast it, but - What are the posibilities? Anne

Posted December 31, 2006

MIKE MOSS SAYS:    Anne,    I didn't see your question for some time, I'm afraid, but thought I'd answer it just as an example of how much can change in a forecast made 8 days in advance (of course, there are times it can be tough to pin things down accurately a few hours in advance, especially dealing with localized severe storms or with the finely balanced elements that all interact with one another to produce snow, sleet, freezing rain or cold rain, or on occasion, fail to interact in a way that ends up producing little or no precipitation at all). The level of uncertaintly that far ahead is such that we prefer to keep our forecasts focused on the next 5 days. Needless to say, even over that period we (as do all forecasters) make frequent adjustments as new observations and analyses are made, new patterns emerge, and updated computer model projections become available.

In this particular case, I can't say when the other forecast may have dropped the idea of snow showers here on the 29th, but as you know by now it turned out to be Partly to Mostly Sunny with a low of 29 and a high of 63.

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