Well our first band of rain this evening did not live up to expectations. Our surface dewpoints were in the low 50s which is not conducive for severe weather. Aiding in the lack of moisture was the big convection across South Carolina and Georgia. This typically robs the moisture transport into North Carolina to support our showers and storms and potential for severe weather. As of posting time, we are watching another area of convection in eastern Tennessee that has the potential to hold together and bring us rain overnight. By 8am we should be seeing this exit our viewing area. By the way, the storms in South Carolina and Georgia did produce severe weather. Check out the storm reports on the Storm Prediction Center website. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/
Another opportunity to see convection here is with the cold front late tomorrow morning and into early afternoon. With this front there is the chance we could see showers and storms activate. Right now it is hard to tell if this will happen. The morning convection could have the effect of stabilizing the atmosphere, effectively preventing more rain from developing in the afternoon with the front. However, if we have the sun break out in the morning, this may be enough to destabilize the atmosphere and showers and storms could develop. If there happens to be a blowup of showers and storms, some could become strong or severe with the threat being large hail and damaging winds. Once the front passes your community the winds will become more westerly and there will be a drop in the humidity and a cool down will progress into the evening. Stay tuned!
