WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

Waffling Weather

Posted November 7, 2005

We all need rain....Some are more desperate ( the rainfall deficit at RDU stands at 8.04" as I write this) than others but in general a good widespread, soaking rain is a necessity these days. Well if you have been looking at the model guidance recently, there has been quite a bit of waffling going on when it comes to Thursday's rain and Friday's cool-off.

So much waffling has been going on, where on one model run there will be rain and decent cooling coming and then the next run of the model it is completely different, that it is hard to make a call on Thursday's weather. It seems the GFS model is plagued by uncertainty when it comes to the forecast.

Let's talk about what is expected....

A decent trough develops in the atmosphere which would deliver a cold front into North Carolina some time between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon. The moisture transport preceding the front looks half way decent and so do the upper dynamics, which would allow for some rain.

Now if the front comes in during the afternoon on Thursday, the heating of the day would play a role in destabilizing the atmosphere allowing for a better shot at showers and perhaps thunderstorms.

Once the front passes, it would become windy and cooler with high temperatures in the 50s or 60s on Friday.

Let's hope as we get closer to mid-late week there will be a definitive pattern that would make for a ripe shot at rain!

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