Tropical Discussion

Posted August 19, 2013
Updated May 11

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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EDT Thu may 11 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 08n36w to 00n36w, moving westward at 10-15 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave is embedded in an area of abundant moisture as
noted in tpw imagery. Isolated showers are occurring within 100
nm on either side of the wave's axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 13n55w to 02n56w, moving westward at 10 kt over
the past 24 hours. The wave is also embedded in an area of
abundant moisture and scattered moderate convection prevails
mainly north of 08n between 52w-60w.

A tropical wave extends over western Venezuela and eastern
Colombia with axis extending from 11n70w to 01n71w, moving west
at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Isolated showers are associated
to this feature.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 14n17w
and extends to 06n20w. The ITCZ begins near 06n20w and continues
to 06n34w, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 02n38w and
continues to 00n48w. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 01s-08n
between 39w-52w.


The Gulf of Mexico...

Fair weather and stable conditions prevail across most of the
basin supported by mid to upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure centered over the northeast Gulf near 28n84w. The only
area with scattered showers is the southern portion of the Bay of
Campeche, where the remnants of T.D. Adrian are supporting this
activity. A light to gentle breeze prevails across the eastern
Gulf while moderate return flow dominates the western half of
the basin. The daily thermal trough is expected to move over the
Bay of Campeche tonight enhancing winds in that region through
Thursday morning. No significant changes are expected until late
Friday, when a cold front will move into northwest Gulf waters.

Caribbean Sea...

A mid to upper-level trough over the W Atlantic extends south
reaching the eastern Caribbean. This trough continues to support
a surface trough that extends over the Virgin Islands and
northeast Caribbean from 19n64w to 15n66w. Persistent scattered
showers are occurring with this trough affecting the Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands, and adjacent waters north of 16n east of
66w. In the SW Caribbean, the eastern extension of the epac's
monsoon trough continue to support scattered showers south of 11n.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
remainder of the basin with fair weather. Expect for showers will
continue for the northeast Caribbean through the next 24 hours.


Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. This pattern
will continue through the next 24 hours as a surface high from the
west Atlantic approaches the island.

Atlantic Ocean...

A 1018 mb area of high pressure centered near 25n73w dominates
the western Atlantic waters with fair weather. To the east, a cold
front extends from 31n54w to 27n60w then becomes stationary from
that point to 24n63w. Scattered showers are along the cold front.
The surface trough extends from 22n61w to 18n64w. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and east of the trough between
55w-65w. Two tropical waves extend across the basin. Please refer
to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered
near 27n44w. Expect for the cold front to drift east while
weakening. A new cold front will clip the north-central Atlantic
by late Friday.

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