Tropical Discussion

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Tropical weather discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

128 PM EDT Thu may 11 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1715 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending

from 08n36w to 00n36w, moving westward at 10-15 kt over the past

24 hours. The wave is embedded in an area of abundant moisture as

noted in tpw imagery. Isolated showers are occurring within 100

nm on either side of the wave's axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis

extending from 13n55w to 02n56w, moving westward at 10 kt over

the past 24 hours. The wave is also embedded in an area of

abundant moisture and scattered moderate convection prevails

mainly north of 08n between 52w-60w.

A tropical wave extends over western Venezuela and eastern

Colombia with axis extending from 11n70w to 01n71w, moving west

at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Isolated showers are associated

to this feature.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 14n17w

and extends to 06n20w. The ITCZ begins near 06n20w and continues

to 06n34w, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 02n38w and

continues to 00n48w. Aside from the convection associated with

the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 01s-08n

between 39w-52w.

...Discussion...

The Gulf of Mexico...

Fair weather and stable conditions prevail across most of the

basin supported by mid to upper-level ridging and surface high

pressure centered over the northeast Gulf near 28n84w. The only

area with scattered showers is the southern portion of the Bay of

Campeche, where the remnants of T.D. Adrian are supporting this

activity. A light to gentle breeze prevails across the eastern

Gulf while moderate return flow dominates the western half of

the basin. The daily thermal trough is expected to move over the

Bay of Campeche tonight enhancing winds in that region through

Thursday morning. No significant changes are expected until late

Friday, when a cold front will move into northwest Gulf waters.

Caribbean Sea...

A mid to upper-level trough over the W Atlantic extends south

reaching the eastern Caribbean. This trough continues to support

a surface trough that extends over the Virgin Islands and

northeast Caribbean from 19n64w to 15n66w. Persistent scattered

showers are occurring with this trough affecting the Leeward

Islands, Virgin Islands, and adjacent waters north of 16n east of

66w. In the SW Caribbean, the eastern extension of the epac's

monsoon trough continue to support scattered showers south of 11n.

Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the

remainder of the basin with fair weather. Expect for showers will

continue for the northeast Caribbean through the next 24 hours.

...Hispaniola...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. This pattern

will continue through the next 24 hours as a surface high from the

west Atlantic approaches the island.

Atlantic Ocean...

A 1018 mb area of high pressure centered near 25n73w dominates

the western Atlantic waters with fair weather. To the east, a cold

front extends from 31n54w to 27n60w then becomes stationary from

that point to 24n63w. Scattered showers are along the cold front.

The surface trough extends from 22n61w to 18n64w. Scattered

moderate convection prevails along and east of the trough between

55w-65w. Two tropical waves extend across the basin. Please refer

to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is

dominated by a surface ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered

near 27n44w. Expect for the cold front to drift east while

weakening. A new cold front will clip the north-central Atlantic

by late Friday.

For additional information please visit

http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine

$$

Era