There’s Much Talk About Latino Voters, but Are Campaigns Talking to Them?

Latino voters in California could help decide party control in Washington in the midterms, with several of the country’s most competitive congressional races being fought here. But just how many Hispanics will show up at the ballot box remains a big question, and it appears that most in the state have not been contacted directly by campaigns.

Latino turnout in California has steadily declined in recent years, to 47 percent in 2016 from 57 percent in 2008, according to data analyzed by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. Midterm elections saw even lower rates: Just 25 percent of eligible California Latinos cast ballots in 2014.

Perhaps nowhere is the Hispanic vote so critical this year as in the 10th District, surrounding Modesto in the Central Valley, where Josh Harder, a Democrat, is running a competitive bid to unseat the incumbent Republican, Rep. Jeff Denham. Denham clung to his seat in 2016 by just a few percentage points even as Hillary Clinton won the district.

Denham has been a pro-immigrant voice on the right and has often butted heads with fellow Republicans over reform efforts. But Harder is hoping Latinos in the district will make it to the polls to cast protest ballots against President Donald Trump this year. He is looking for young voters like Estela Arreola, 18, a pro-Democrat student at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, who said she was extremely excited to vote in her first general election.

But Arreola worries that others are not tuning in, and that local campaigns are not doing everything they can to reach out. There is data to support her concern: A tracking poll released this month by Latino Decisions, a polling firm, showed that more than 60 percent of registered Hispanic voters in California had not been contacted by any political campaigns.

“I think people just don’t know,” Arreola said. “They have no clue what’s going on. They don’t get advertisements as much, and also I think they don’t realize how much of an impact they have.”

And campaigns may be overestimating the extent to which Trump alone will spur voters to the polls. Many Hispanics, especially in the more conservative Central Valley, like some of the president’s policies.

Jose Alvarez, 20, said he supports Trump because he feels the economy is doing well under his direction. He said he would vote to bolster the president’s agenda, but he seemed unaware there was a midterm election coming up.

“Voting is a very important thing; I’m not saying it’s not,” Alvarez said. “But just in general, politics in general, I just don’t want to hear it.”