Survey shows 1 in 5 NC students at risk of not advancing to the next grade level

That’s according to a new survey of North Carolina’s public school districts and public charters. The schools submitted data to the state Department of Public Instruction following a request in January from the state Legislature.

The definition of “at-risk” is defined by each school district, so districts’ responses can’t be compared to one another, and the survey further indicates that conditions are likely to improve before the school year ends. But the data are a first statewide look at the potential longer-term impact of the pandemic and the “learning loss” that may take years for districts and students to fully make up.

“I think, just like everybody else in the nation, we know that when schools closed last March, that it was going to take more than just one academic year or two academic years for kids to catch up,” Whitney Oakley, chief academic officer for Guilford County Schools, told WRAL. “So it’s not going to be something that we can fix just in the summer. It’s going to be a long runway of identifying skill gaps.”

Other school officials have echoed Oakley’s thoughts, some even positing the possibility of extended school days or calendars in the next year for students who need more instruction.

The switch, abrupt at first, to remote learning has caused a disruption in students’ education, particularly for those who still lack Internet access at home or who waited months to obtain a laptop from their district.

“I think teachers and students and families did the very best they could during school closure and in remote learning,” Oakley said. “But nothing takes the place of consistent face-to-face learning, and that’s true for most students.”

Schools reported that about 323,000 of their nearly 1.5 million students — about one in five students — are “at risk.” The results aren’t complete. While all public school districts and most public charter schools responded to the survey, 42 charter schools with more than 23,000 students total, did not respond to the survey.

The state’s largest school district, the Wake County Public School System, reported 30,063 of its 157,673 students were “at risk,” about 19%. The state’s second-largest district, Charlotte-Mecklenburg, reported 47,942 student “at risk,” out of 138,884 — 34.5%. It expects about 4,800 students to drop off the list by the end of the year.

What “at risk” means varies school-to-school. Dozens of districts reported that they anticipate improvements by the end of the school year, which would mean thousands of currently at-risk students would end up being on grade level by year’s end. Districts and charter schools more than 54,000 students will end up getting back on grade level before the end of the school year

Some schools are still receiving shipments of devices to give to students who don’t have one of their own to use at home, and many students who now have them are able to make up missed work from earlier in the year, potentially improving their grades.

Guilford County, North Carolina’s third-largest school district, just got its latest shipment of Chromebooks for students last month. Students still struggle for Internet access. But by next week, all students will have the option to go back to school for face-to-face learning for two days each week or all five days for elementary students. Pre-kindergarten through 5th grades, along with some career and technical education students and studnets with disabilities, have had the option of five days each week since mid-November.

Schools ultimately choose whether to advance students, and they do so based on several criteria.

End-of-grade test scores can factor in, and preliminary data show scores are so far down this year across the Tar Heel State. But schools can judge students’ work and success in other ways, using other assessments.

The state has no formal definition for “at risk,” so exactly how likely a student is to be held back a grade isn’t reflected in the data. Schools locally have their own way of defining “at risk” to help them identify students in need of interventions. Per DPI, some districts and charters reported students whom they considered at risk, even if they may still be promoted to the next grade level. Others, according to DPI, reported only those who may not be promoted.

But other data collected by WRAL through public information requests to the state’s school districts show grades are worse this year than in past years.

About three dozen districts have so far responded, and those who supplied grade data reported students are earning fewer As and more Fs. Often, more students are failing at least one course than have in typical years past.

The Wake County Public School System reported statistics showing that last month.

In Guilford County, one in three students failed a semester course this last fall, compared to half that the fall before.

Getting students back on track will take time and will last well beyond this academic year, said Patrick Miller, superintendent of Greene County Schools.

“It’s certainly going to take some time, not just summer school, but community buy-in,” he said.

Miller’s 2,700-student district reported 901 students at risk — one in three.

Except for the 9th grade, which had the biggest number of at-risk students at 125, the district, like most surveyed, doesn’t expect much of a change by the end of the year.

Students might be far enough behind that they’ll need more instruction than what summer school can provide, Miller said.

Miller is looking at a three-year period in which the district has access to federal pandemic-relief funds and wants to provide what he can for as long as students need it.

Classroom time is key, as Miller said it appears the students who are attending more often are doing better.

So he’s looking into an extended-day option for next year, in which students could stay for another hour or hour and a half after school each day for additional instruction, with busing provided for the later dismissal. Miller will look into being able to use the federal funds for that.

“I think we’re probably going to continue on this same trajectory throughout the end of the year,” Miller said. “I think when we’ll start to make up ground will be in summer school and into next year if we’re able to use some of that (federal) money to have an extended day program. I feel like we’ll get a great start at recuperating some of those losses in summer school, but like I said before I don’t think it's going to be a done and done type situation. It’s going to take time and some resources.”