The Huddle: QB tiers for 2024, realignment analysis, & early transfer rumblings

Welcome back to The Huddle!

I have to leave to make my way over to Winston-Salem for the 2024 NCHSAA basketball super regional and state championship setting at Lawrence Joel Colesium. I’ll be there all week. I will be very tired at the end of this week.

So let’s get to the gridiron.

1st Down: Realignment & Predicting the Conferences

Over the next few days, I’m going to roll out some conference predictions for the upcoming 8A realignment in 2025.

Things are going to look quite a bit different than we’re used to. By going to eight classifications, some areas are really stretched thin when it comes to a certain school size. No matter how you cut it - Big 32 schools in 8A, Even classifications, Little 32 schools in 1A, there are going to be some schools that end up in no man’s land. A big example of this is South Brunswick, which will be 6A as opposed to the other Brunswick schools (7As) and the Wilmington schools to the north (7As/8As). It is also too big for the schools in the near counties to the west, which tend to be 4A and lower. Since the NCHSAA probably will not put three classifications in one conference, South Brunswick is going to have to travel up to the similarly sized schools in the Jacksonville/Onslow County area.

I still think that the best option to solve a lot of these issues would be football only conferences. Because, let’s be real: football is the driving force behind a lot of these changes. When people discuss these realignment issues, they’re more than often talking purely from a football perspective. In case you missed my rational for doing football only and my example of what it could look like, check out the following:

The Huddle: Should the NCHSAA realign football separately? Here's what it could look like

One good piece of news in all of this is that it’s going be impossible for the NCHSAA to establish a solid East/West regional dividing line like we have now. In some of the classifications, there will be far too many schools on one side of the current line than the other. It seems that we are going to go back to establishing that East/West line AFTER teams qualify for the playoffs. With no predetermined boundary deciding which region a school is in, that opens up possibilities for forming conferences with teams that have been and could still be a mixture of East/West members. One of the conferences in one of my scenarios consists of Lee County, Southern Lee, Western Harnett, Union Pines, Asheboro, and Montgomery Central. That is the type of region-spanning conferences we could be looking at.

Overall, I think the conferences that come out of the Little 32 realignment option are the best. However, it is sounding more and more like the actual realignment will feature the Big 32 option. So pay closer attention to those conference prediction scenarios when I get them out. I’m hoping to have them out by Wednesday before day three of basketball in Winston-Salem.

2nd Down: Quarterback Tiers for 2024

I’m going to start these tiers for each position group. I’ve seen some rankings that I don’t like. I won’t rank the individual players, because I don’t necessarily believe in that. Instead, I have these guys placed into tiers.

Here is how I view the returning starting quarterbacks in 2024.

Elite HS Quarterbacks

• Braden Atkinson, Rolesville
  • Atkinson has supreme arm talent. He completed 72.8% of his passes for 3,701 yards and a crazy TD:INT ratio of 46:4.
• Bryce Baker, East Forsyth
  • The 4-star UNC commit dazzled with 39 touchdowns to three interceptions in his first year in a new system at East Forsyth.
• Faizon Brandon, Grimsley
  • The highly touted 4-star class of 2026 prospect was awesome in his first year as a starter, completing 69% of his passes for over 3,000 yards, 36 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He also rushed for over 500 yards and nine touchdowns.
• Maddox Greene, Watauga
  • Greene is a game-changer in Watauga's tricky option attack. He has thrown for 3,200 yards, 42 touchdowns, and six interceptions since becoming a starter as a freshman. He's also rushed for 3,398 yards and 47 touchdowns.
• Justin Little, Independence
  • Little is on the smaller side, but he is a pure winner. He has thrown for 5,840 yards, 57 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in two years starting at Independence. He’s also rushed for over 1,000 yards and 21 touchdowns.
• Brady Stober, Hickory
  • Stober put the Red Tornadoes on his back and pulled off a game-winning drive in the 3A state championship game. Extremely efficient and extremely accurate, Stober completed 70.3% of his passes for 3,933 yards, 47 touchdowns, four interceptions as a junior.

Very Good HS Quarterbacks

• Jackson Byrd, Cleveland
  • Byrd is at the top of this tier both in last name and talent. He has thrown over 6,500 yards and 75 touchdowns in two seasons as a starter, but his TD;INT ratio of 37:12 last season wasn't quite on par with those guys in the elite tier.
• Tyson Broadway, Southern Durham
  • I'm taking a gamble on this one, as Broadway will only be a sophomore in 2024. As a rotational varsity player, Broadway attempted 99 passes and completed 73.% of them for 1,328 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Georgia Tech saw enough and offered before he becomes a full-time starter this year.
• Lan Farmer, Shelby
  • The 6-foot-4 Farmer had a big season as sophomore starter at Shelby, throwing for 3,399 yards, 44 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 65% of his passes.
• Gannon Jones, Cardinal Gibbons
  • The rising junior was forced into Gibbons' starting role out os necessity and was sensational. Jones completed 71.4% of his passes and threw for 2,193 yards, 29 touchdowns, and three interceptions over 10 games. He added 337 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
• Zach Lawrence, Butler
  • Not sure why, but Lawrence's numbers were down from his sophomore year. As a sophomore, he threw for 32 touchdowns to nine interceptions. As a junior, he threw for 24 touchdowns to eight interceptions. He has a chance to into that elite tier as a senior.
• DeAndre Nance, Seventy-First
  • The dual-threat quarterback has completed 65% of his career passes for 3,452 yards, 41 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He's also rushed for 2,885 yards and 54 touchdowns as a powerful force on the ground.
• Jacob Smith, Reagan
  • His numbers aren't anything to write home about (thank the crazy competition on Reagan's schedule), but the NC State baseball commit has one of the very best arms in the state. I think we will see him turn in one of these 30 TD, low INT seasons before he's gone in two years.

Above Average HS Quarterbacks

• Lane Allbright, Mount Tabor
• Trey Blakeney, Hough
• Gavin Chastain, Bessemer City
• Kaden Davis, Freedom
• Jackson Debe, Providence
• CJ Gray, A.L. Brown
• Deiondre Goldston, Leesville Road
• Grayson Harvey, Mountain Island Charter
• Jaylen Hewitt, Havelock
• Riley Horton, Parkland
• John Kilpatrick, Randleman
• Ben Kessinger, Brevard
• Braylon Knapp, Perquimans
• Dan Mahan, Williams
• Ji’San McPhatter, Scotland
• Brody Norman, Mooresville
• Izeiah Oates, Eastern Wayne
• Elijah Oehlke, Trinity Christian
• Jared Lockhart, Porter Ridge
• Hawke Shoenfield, Middle Creek
• Kavon Simmons, Wake Forest
• Charlie Smith, Charlotte Catholic
• JaRon Ward, Hendersonville
• Famous Wilson, North Pitt
• Cade Young, West Henderson

3rd Down: Early Transfer Rumblings

We are going to be putting out a transfer tracker for HSOT Insiders at some point this offseason. Here is a preview of some of the names that will be on it. The following are some of the biggest confirmed transfers that will impact North Carolina high school football in 2024.

One of the biggest transfer stories of the offseason is A.C. Reynolds getting the enrollment of a former IMG Academy quarterback Ely Hamrick. Hamrick played on IMG's varsity "white" team, which is the strongest of the two varsity teams but not as strong as IMG's "national" team. As a sophomore, he threw for 1,244 yards, 18 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also rushed for 88 yards and four touchdowns. Hamrick has received offers from Appalachian State, Kentucky, and Toledo. He is listed at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds. If Hamrick is the real deal, pairing him with speedster Max Guest in the backfield and an always strong Rockets defense could create a serious contender in the 3A West.

The defending 4A state champion Weddington Warriors already had a great front seven returning on defense, and it got even better with the move in of former Panther Creek standout Trajen Odom. Odom is considered a 4-star prospect by On3 and ESPN. As a junior last fall, Odom was credited with 54 total tackles, 22 tackles for a loss, and a forced fumble. During his sophomore season in 2022, Odom had 41 total tackles and 11 tackles for a loss. Odom has been credited with nine career sacks. Now, Odom will wreak havoc on a defensive line that already had the highly-recruited Harris twins Drew and Aiden.

East Forsyth had a lot of transfers last year and it looks like that will continue. In Forsyth County, there is a school choice/open enrollment program that allows students to attend whichever high school in the county as long as it’s not near capacity. Rising senior Kenyon Smith won Defensive Player of the Year in the Mid-State 2A Conference when he was at North Forsyth last fall. That’s Reidsville’s conference. Smith is now at East Forsyth, according to his X account. He recorded 125 total tackles, 20 tackles for a loss, 7.5 sacks, and a forced fumble in 2023. Now, he’ll be a defensive leader for a top 4A program. I’m told that East Forsyth will also land a near 1,000-yard rusher who already has a Division I offer before this offseason ends. The Eagles are shaping up to be one of the top contenders for the 4A West crown in 2024.

A few players have transferred to Crest, including a defensive back in JHari Mosely who was previously offered by UNC-Charlotte. He had 47 receptions for 793 yards and 11 touchdowns at CHASE High School last season. He also rushed for 249 yards and seven touchdowns. On defense, he had 53 total tackles, seven tackles for a loss, two sacks, and three interceptions.

CHASE also lost its 1,100-rushing yard, 14-touchdown running back Da’Zion Murrary. Murray now attends West Henderson High School, which has won 12-plus games in back-to-back seasons.

Jay M. Robinson picked up two key returners from Hickory Ridge: rising senior wide receiver Dominic Testa and rising senior linebacker Myles Hudson. Testa had Had 68 catches for 904 yards and 10 touchdowns during his junior season with the Ragin’ Bulls. Hudson had 38 tackles for Hickory Ridge, but could fit nicely with the Bulldogs’ defense. Robinson had a huge season in 2023, finishing 12-1 overall and winning the South Piedmont 3A Conference in its first year after moving up a classification. Things could still be trending up for coach Jason Seidel and Robinson.

Former West Carteret starting quarterback Jaylen Hewitt is now at Havelock. Hewitt, a rising senior, is a big 6-foot-5 passer that has thrown for 5,493 yards, 58 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions over his career. He’s completed 56.8% of his passes. Havelock had an incredible rushing attack last season but was unable to effectively push the ball downfield through the air. Airing it out is one thing that Hewitt will be able to do for the Rams.

Please, for the love of God, don’t send me angry messages when this transfer list comes out. I’m not advocating for transfers by covering them, my job is to simply inform people about what is going on in North Carolina high school football. If you think transfers are a big issue, you should be glad that someone is putting a spotlight on it. Don’t shoot the messenger.