'Pay attention to this issue': Wake student shares teacher turnover research with school board, lawmakers
Knightdale High School graduate Kiara Bush walked to the microphone at the Wake County Board of Education meeting in June. Nearby, her parents recorded video and her AP statistics teacher watched in support as Bush told board members about a statistical analysis she did of teacher turnover and school grades in Wake County.
"I ran a linear regression and found that there is a moderately strong, negative, linear correlation between teacher turnover rates and school grades, which in simple terms that means ... higher teacher turnover rates tend to be associated with schools that have lower school grades," Bush told the board at its June 18 meeting. "I was thinking about this because my school, Knightdale High School, has a relatively high teacher turnover rate as compared to Wake County, so I wanted to examine this relationship further."
North Carolina education leaders who have studied teacher turnover say Bush's findings are consistent with what they have seen. However, they caution against drawing conclusions that high teacher turnover causes low school grades or low teacher turnover causes high grades – something Bush was careful to note in her research.
"There’s definitely some sort of association. There’s something going on between those two variables," she said, but "one should not assume that correlation implies causation."
Bush did the research as part of her final project for AP Statistics and AP Calculus. She aced the assignment, according to her statistics teacher, but she wasn't done. After graduating in June, she created an infographic and narrated slideshow of her research and presented her findings to the Wake school board and state lawmakers at the North Carolina General Assembly.
"I think it’s important for me as a student to speak on it and share what I’ve found with other people," said Bush, who plans to attend North Carolina State University this fall. "It’s something that can impact students a lot."
School board chair: 'Her statistics are sound'
At Knightdale High, where Bush graduated in June, about 20 percent of the teachers left in 2018. That same year, the school received a performance grade of D. The school had similar results the year before. All North Carolina public schools have received A through F letter grades since 2013-14, when the General Assembly passed legislation requiring it.
Overall, Wake County public schools saw about 10 percent turnover among teachers in 2018, and North Carolina had about 8 percent teacher turnover.
The majority of North Carolina teachers who left public schools in 2018 – about 54 percent – cited personal reasons for their decision, according to the latest state data. On average, the teachers who left their jobs had lower teaching effectiveness than their counterparts who remained employed in North Carolina public schools, state research showed.
While Bush said she hasn't lost many of her advanced placement teachers, she has seen some instability in other classes.
"I get work done whether or not someone tells me to get work done," she said. "And so for me, turnover has impacted me in a way that ... I’m not sure what work I need to be doing or I feel like I’m not being challenged enough as a student because the substitute teachers aren’t really there for that necessarily. But most of the students around the school, I just noticed a lot of them don’t seem to really care that much or don’t realize how important their education is, and I feel like if they had those bonds with teachers, they would be able to build those connections."
Bush's research topic is a timely one, according to Wake County Board of Education Chair Jim Martin, who said he and his colleagues have discussed teacher turnover as part of their broader conversation on equity in schools.
"Her statistics are sound," Martin said. "I haven’t looked at the specific numbers, but her conclusion is completely consistent with what I’ve seen."
There is an even stronger correlation between school grades and poverty levels, according to Martin, who encouraged Bush to keep researching and seeking solutions.
"I know how to address this issue – Create great working environments. Create an appropriate salary structure. Create an appropriate support structure – and I guarantee you we’re going to lower teacher turnover," Martin said. "So I know how to fix it, but I just don’t have the tools to be able to do what we all know would fix the problem. That’s the challenge."
Bush decided to study the topic after her AP statistics teacher, Margaret Borden, asked students to do individual passion projects and analyze data on a subject that interested them as part of their final project for class. Since her AP Calculus teacher was also allowing students to do similar projects on anything math related, Bush combined the two assignments into one to learn as much as she could about teacher turnover and school grades in Wake County.
"It was a super interesting topic that Kiara delved into, for sure," Borden said. "Interestingly enough, it was something that I’m pretty passionate about and care pretty deeply about, and so it was kind of a nice moment for us because it was something that I knew enough about that I felt like I could help guide her through it."
Instead of analyzing all 187 schools in Wake County, Bush decided to take a stratified random sample and examine 17 schools in the district, including her own. Using publicly available information posted on North Carolina School Report Cards' website, she compiled teacher turnover and school grades data for each of the 17 schools for the past five years and analyzed the data in a Google spreadsheet.
"I saw the differences between eastern Wake County and western Wake County schools. That was definitely a shock, like what the grades were," Bush said. "And something that I learned that was most shocking was that they don’t count internal transfers towards teacher turnover, so the actual list is likely higher."
North Carolina's turnover rate only includes teachers who left the field or left the state. Teachers who take a job in a different North Carolina school district are tallied in a figure the state calls "teacher mobility."
Lawmakers praise project, say teacher turnover 'is a challenge'
Bush's attention to detail and caution in presenting her findings impressed Tom Tomberlin, who studies teacher turnover at all 115 school systems in North Carolina every year. WRAL News shared Bush's research with him to get his insight.
"Ms. Bush's findings in Wake County align with what we see across the state," said Tomberlin, who works as director of educator recruitment and support for the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. "Ms. Bush is very careful not to make causal statements related to the findings – that makes her awesome in my book."
"The only thing that I would say is that it is difficult to say what the strength of the relationship between achievement and turnover is without controlling for other factors in the model," Tomberlin continued. "Student poverty, student race, and school working conditions could explain much of the teacher turnover that this study attributes to (the school's lack of) student achievement."
Bush said she received similar feedback from lawmakers when she and her teacher, Ms. Borden, met with them in June. More than a dozen lawmakers from the North Carolina House of Representatives agreed to meet with Bush or review her research. Some suggested looking at the socioeconomic status and demographics of students and how that relates to school grades.
"It was pretty much just every 30 minutes meeting with a new representative," Bush said. "They actually had some really good questions and suggestions as to things that I could look into further if I wanted to do further studies."
Borden, who helped set up the meetings, said she and Bush met with lawmakers from across the political spectrum.
"Everyone was really receptive to what she had to say and had their own take on how it would help them in their advocacy," Borden said. "It was an awesome experience, even for me. I was like, 'Man, this is cool.'"
Rep. Graig Meyer, D-Orange, and Rep. Frank Iler, R-Brunswick, were two of the lawmakers they met with.
"I was so glad to talk to Kiara. She had really done solid research and constructed some very compelling arguments. Taking her work and bringing it to talk to legislators is exactly the type of thing we want North Carolina’s public school students to do," Meyer said. "And Ms. Borden’s willingness to spend time to bring Kiara is a great example of how student-focused public school teachers are. Teacher turnover is a challenge to our schools right now. We’ve seen that in the statewide data for years. Kiara made it real by connecting the data to the student experience."
Iler was also impressed with Bush's research and said the project reminded him of the time he visited Brunswick County's 19 schools a few years ago and sat in classes.
"I found that experienced teachers not only managed their classrooms better but seemed to have 'sharper' students," Iler said. "This is the main reason we focused on veteran teachers' pay in our 2019-2021 budget. As we know, the Governor vetoed the budget on June 28th, so there is no raise for them unless it’s overturned."
One of the most common pieces of advice Bush and Borden said they received at the legislature was to share the research with members of the Senate who focus on education issues, not just the House of Representatives. Borden said that might be a good project for a future student.
"I might see if I can get [Bush] to come speak to my stats students next year and see if we might be able to get a bite and have someone continue the project," she said.
Although Bush is focused on her transition to college, she is open to continuing the project and growing her math skills.
"I thought that taking a statistics class would benefit me, and it certainly has," she said. "I, at first, was a little confused about it, but I had a very good teacher and she taught it in a way that really made sense to me and I was able to grasp it. So now I really enjoy statistics and I actually might incorporate it into my college education."
In the meantime, she wants education leaders to "pay attention to this issue" and continue listening to students like her.
"Something that I learned just about the general process that I’ve gone through is it’s really easy to get into a school board meeting and speak," Bush laughed. "That’s something that I didn’t expect to be an easy process."
