Bracket busters? These teams could get upsets in the conference tournament finals

Although last night wrapped up a handful of conference basketball tournaments across the state, most teams will be playing their championships tonight.

As is the case every season, there are a few Cinderella teams who have made it all the way to their respective tournament final.

For many years, the winner of the conference tournament was assured a spot in the playoffs, often bumping the 2-seed from the league out of its spot. That was back when 2-seeds couldn't be jumped by 3-seeds in the bracket, but the rules have since changed so that only 1-seeds have that clause.

A newer wrinkle complicates the nature of these games.

It's no longer win-and-you're-in.

Instead, each conference is allowed to have its own rules regarding its conference tournament. If a conference decides to have its tournament champion take an autobid (something that by the league in the offseason) it must take one from its own league. If a conference doesn't do that, you could very well have a team win its conference tournament and not make it into the state playoffs.

As we look at teams that are outside the playoff bubble going into tonight, we break down how likely it is they'll make it into the playoffs with a win.

Also, don't forget that we have mapped out all the tiebreaker scenarios entering the night for HSOT Insiders. Here are the boys tiebreakers, and here are the girls tiebreakers.

1A

Avery County Boys (10-15): The Vikings stunned Mountain Heritage in the semifinals of the Western Highlands' conference tournament, but are still well outside of the final spots in the 1A West. The Western Highlands only has one automatic bid for 2A schools and one bid for 1A schools in its league. Typically, conferences do not allow a conference tournament champ to bump out a 1-seed, which means there's no automatic spot for Avery County to slide into even if it wins tonight. The Vikings' RPI is low enough where a win may not put them into the field as a wild-card.

Update: Avery County lost in the tournament final.

Hayesville Boys (13-13): The Yellow Jackets began the week out of the playoffs but — after going 0-10 in the league! — they've won back-to-back games and are in the final. Even if they lose, they're safely in now.

Update: Hayesville lost in the tournament final.

2A

East Surry Boys (12-14): The Cardinals are just a few spots ahead of the cutoff, but a win against North Surry in the Foothills Conference tournament championship would alleviate all fears. The Cardinals would likely get the 2-seed (unless conference rules say otherwise) and gently bump Surry Central out of an automatic spot (which would not hurt Surry Central's seed).

Update: East Surry lost in the tournament final.

Monroe Girls (10-15): Monroe is just outside of the cutoff line for a wild-card spot and is facing Piedmont in the Rocky River Conference tournament championship. This is a split conference, however, and the 2A side only has one bid, so a win might get the Redhawks in on RPI, but it probably does not get them an automatic bid (or else they'd bump West Stanly from the 1-seed).

Update: Monroe WON in its conference tournament final, and though the win didn't give them an autobid, it did improve their RPI to put them into the playoffs.

3A

C.B. Aycock Boys (14-12): The Golden Falcons have a good RPI but are currently boxed out by South Johnston (9-15) because South Johnston was fourth and CBA was fifth. The Golden Falcons are facing Hunt in the Quad County Conference conference tournament championship. If CBA wins, they'd likely (not confirmed if the conference has this rule) take Hunt's automatic bid, which would ensure both teams making it. But make no mistake: CBA cannot make the tournament without defeating Hunt.

Update: C.B. Aycock lost in the tournament final.

Richlands Girls (13-11): The Wildcats have already broken a tie for fourth place in the Coastal Conference, but here's their problem: they're behind White Oak. White Oak is 7-13 overall and their RPI is going to "box out" Richlands per the "no leapfrogging" rule about playoff entry. Richlands knew, going into the playoffs, that it couldn't make the playoffs unless White Oak did. This is where the Coastal is unique. According to reporting by Chris Miller of the Jacksonville Daily News, the Coastal had already decided to NOT give the 2-seed to the conference tournament champ. That means, even if Richlands wins, it's probably out of the playoffs because there's no way it can jump White Oak.

Update Richlands WON the conference tournament final, but the conference's own rule will keep them out of the playoffs.

4A

Alexander Central Boys (12-14): I have some bad news, Cougars fans. The Northwestern only has one automatic bid for 4A schools and one bid for 3A schools in its league. Typically, conferences do not allow a conference tournament champ to bump out a 1-seed, which means there's no automatic spot for Alexander Central to slide into even if it wins tonight. The Cougars' RPI is low enough where a win may not put them into the field as a wild-card.

Update: Alexander Central lost in the tournament final.

Enloe Boys (8-18): There's good new for the Eagles — they can get an automatic spot if they defeat Sanderson in the Cap-6 Conference championship. They'd bump second-place Sanderson out of their autobid, which would likely put Enloe as the last team into the playoffs but not affect Sanderson's seed that much.

Update: Enloe lost in the tournament final.