Stevens: Some perspective on the decline in NC high school sports participation

We've been anticipating the release of new high school sports participation data for a few years now. On Wednesday, the National Federation of State High School Associations finally delivered.

Posted 5:57 p.m. Sep 15, 2022 — Updated 5:57 p.m. Sep 15, 2022

Nick Stevens

, HighSchoolOT managing editor

We've been anticipating the release of new high school sports participation data for a few years now. On Wednesday, the National Federation of State High School Associations finally delivered.

In 2018-2019, the last year the NFHS released participation data because of the COVID-19 pandemic, participation declined nationally for the first time in three decades. North Carolina was not spared. And some of the most tenured sports were some of the most affected.

Then came the pandemic. Schools were shuttered, sports were stopped, and the amount of uncertainty in the world was off the charts. Kids were finding other things to do, club sports to play, jobs to work. There were deep concerns among schools, athletic directors, and coaches about the future of high school sports.

NC high school sports participation down 9.1% since pandemic; Girls sports saw sharpest drop

High school sports resumed on a limited schedule in North Carolina in November 2020 — meaning the state went about eight months without them. In spring 2021, HighSchoolOT conducted a survey of athletic directors and found 79.4% of NCHSAA member schools saw a decline in sports participation during the 2020-2021 school year, 66% reported dropping at least one junior varsity sport, and 35.9% said they dropped at least one varsity sport due to a lack of participation.

HighSchoolOT ran another survey this past spring. In April 2022, 26.6% of athletic directors reported a drop in participation during the 2021-2022 school year — still a significant number, but far below the 79.4% seen the previous year.

Now we have the real numbers that show just how impactful the pandemic was. To no one's surprise, there was a decline in participation.

The top line numbers

During the 2018-2019 school year, participation in high school sports in North Carolina was approaching 200,000 student-athletes. That number fell by 9.1% by the 2021-2022 school year, dropping to just over 180,000.

Take a moment to digest that. Over the three-year period that included the pandemic, 1-in-10 high school athletes in North Carolina stopped playing sports. And since that 9.1% figure is for the 2021-2022 school year — where most schools did not see a decline in participation compared to the 2020-2021 school year — it's safe to say the decline during the 2020-2021 school year was likely much sharper.

One of the questions that people invested in high school sports will need to explore: why was North Carolina's decline of 9.1% so far above the national decline of 4%?

I don't have the answer to this question, but one theory I've thought about: Did North Carolina's decision to change the sports calendar in 2020-2021 and create non-traditional overlapping seasons have more of an impact? And what impact did the pandemic-related protocols have on participation? How about the lack of middle school sports in many areas? I'm not making the case that any of those decisions were wrong — but even the right decision can have some less-than-desirable consequences.

The difference in boys & girls participation

Since the NFHS data was released this week, I've had some people ask me about the different in the decline of boys participation compared to girls participation. It's quite big difference.

In North Carolina, boys participation declined by 6.4% while girls participation dropped by 12.5%. It is alarming, but it is not shocking.

In the HighSchoolOT survey conducted this spring, we heard from athletic directors that they were more optimistic overall, but still had deep concerns about girls sports and junior varsity sports. At the varsity level, 42.6% of athletic directors saw drops in softball participation, 39.6% reported declines in girls basketball, 36.1% said fewer girls were running cross country, 33.6% said fewer girls are swimming, and 28.8% reported a drop in girls soccer participation. In addition, more than 20% of schools reported declines in varsity girls golf, girls track & field, and girls lacrosse.

This is not a phenomena caused by COVID-19. It is something that was already happening before the pandemic and is now being accelerated. There are many theories as to why girls are seeing sharper declines in participation, but it has not been resolved. It's a national issue, but... North Carolina's decline was much steeper than the national decline.

North Carolina saw a decline of 12.5% in girls participation from 2018-2019 to 2021-2022, but the drop nationally was just 4.7%. Again, that is something that needs more exploration. Why is that happening in North Carolina? And what can be done to help reverse that trend?

The decline in boys participation in North Carolina was also steeper than the national decline — 6.4% in North Carolina compared to 3.5% nationally.

These numbers are concerning, but...

It may not be time to hit the panic button just yet in North Carolina.

Remember, the start of the 2021-2022 school year was not normal. There were still mask mandates in some areas, there were still pandemic-related restrictions and protocols, some teams were still being quarantined too. There was still a lot of uncertainty about everything, not just high school sports. Even in December 2021, there were concerns that the Wallace-Rose Hill football team could be quarantined due to some COVID-19 cases on the team the week of the state championship game. So things were not "normal."

We've come a long way since then. So far, this fall sports season has basically been like any other before the pandemic, and that could help participation.

There is not hard data yet on participation for the 2022-2023 school year — it's too early for a HighSchoolOT survey to really show much and the NFHS won't release data for 2022-2023 until this time next year. However, there are plenty of anecdotal examples of participation rebounding this year. I've heard from many fall sports coaches and athletic directors in many different parts of the state that participation is up. Some football coaches are even reporting record numbers.

That's all encouraging. It's not across the board though. There are still some areas that are struggling. There are sports that are struggling. And everyone involved in high school sports needs to continue to focus on this very important issue going forward.

There are still a lot of unknowns. For example, how will the lack of middle school sports during the pandemic in some areas impact the future of high school sports down the road?

Another red flag: the HighSchoolOT survey from April 2022 showed far-reaching concern for participation levels in junior varsity sports last school year. Does that trend reverse this year? And in a big way? Most of the attention gets paid to varsity sports, but the junior varsity players today are going to be varsity players tomorrow. If there aren't enough junior varsity players, chances are the varsity participation problems will persist — and perhaps worsen — in the future.

We are still awaiting sport-specific participation data for North Carolina, but what we know now confirms the concerns that many people had during the pandemic: participation was impacted a massive way. Now we need to take the data and focus on ways to resolve that problem. Hopefully when the data for 2022-2023 comes out, we see a positive trend in the opposite direction.

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