ACC Basketball is Down

The facts are undeniable. Basketball in the ACC is having an atypical year and the conference as a whole is reeling from some very bad losses in the non-conference slate. Let’s look at the details and the ultimate ramifications.

State loses to New Orleans and ECU. Boston College loses to Robert Morris and needs a last-second bucket to escape Northeastern. Virginia loses by 38 to Xavier. Miami loses to Winthrop, Maryland loses to American U. Georgia Tech loses to UNCG.

Trust me, there's more but you get the picture.

Duke has played very well for the most part but plays suspect in a win over Cornell and the Blue Devils’ depth is now a bit more depleted with the loss of big man Brian Zoubek for an indefinite period of time. Carolina, for the most part, has played terrific and has looked every bit a contender for a national championship but outside of the Heels and Wake Forest, the conference is reeling from these embarrassing non-conference losses and close calls.

As we head into the heart of ACC play this weekend, how many teams will be on the bubble come March? My opinion at this point is that the ACC is a safe bet for four teams, possibly five, come March. Carolina, Duke, Clemson and a TBD. Someone will emerge in the next couple of weeks to be that fourth team. The problem with five teams making the NCAA Tournament is that after the first three, the rest will bash each others brains in and will have a ton of continued mediocrity in the middle of the ACC standings. Let’s examine the middle ACC ground and assign a percentage of chance on their opportunity to make the NCAA Tournament.

Wake Forest: Can't knock the job Dino Gaudio has done after taking over the program due to Skip Prosser's untimely death. Some nice wins, particularly last night’s over Brigham Young, have Wake Forest in pretty good shape. If the Deacons continue to play good defense, I like their chances. A .500 ACC slate gets them in. Chance of making the Tournament: 70%

Virginia: Last year’s surprise, the Cavaliers have played very well at times (Arizona) and extremely poor (Xavier) at others. I'm not exactly sure what to expect night in and night out but clearly their dynamic point guard, Sean Singletary, is as important to his team as any player in the nation. As Sean goes, so goes the mood in Charlottesville. It's why I offer them a coin flip of a chance to make the tournament. NCAA chances: 50%

Miami: I like this team. I want to believe in the 13-1 record. But are they this year’s Clemson? They really haven't beaten anyone of note and their only loss was to Winthrop (8-6), which while decent, is still very much mid-major. My money says they'll get in but it will be a struggle. Don't be surprised if they need an ACC Tournament win to get in. NCAA chances: 50%

Florida State: A real enigma to me. Have played an OK out-of-conference slate but not earth-shattering. The Florida win isn't overly impressive to me and their losses to Cleveland State and South Florida have my eyebrow's up. Their stock could rise as to whether or not they get in but they'll have to play well against tough conference opponents Clemson and Duke out of the gate to get my attention. NCAA chances: 40%

N.C. State: The aforementioned losses above have spelled trouble for the Wolfpack. With no real leader in the backcourt, Sidney Lowe's team is in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAAs. Picked to finish 3rd, my crystal ball sees a 6-10 conference slate for the Pack. Inconsistent shooting, bad defense and no leadership on the court is killing this team. See ya next year State. NCAA chances: 20%

Georgia Tech: A couple of early season losses have spelled trouble for Paul Hewitt's bunch. They sure could use some early ACC victories to erase doubts but I have too many. Streaky shooting and a porous defense are dooming this team. Hewitt is absolutely on the hot seat. NCAA chances: 10%

Boston College: A blowout home loss to Kansas wasn't nearly as bad as this week’s home loss to Robert Morris. The Eagles are far too reliant on Tyrese Rice to make any serious run for the NCAA field. Although I like how BC is coached as the year progresses, this is an NIT year for this young bunch. NCAA chances: 10%

No love for Virginia Tech and Maryland. I'll give Tech the hall pass after last year’s nice run to the tournament and a very young lineup. I'd like to give Gary Williams a pass but I can't. Gary's going to have to start recruiting better and loosen up the collar. This is a pretty bad Maryland team that for the most part hasn't played with tons of passion. Has Coach Williams act grown tired in College Park? That being said, nice to see the retro uni's on display for the Holy Cross game. Maybe they should keep using them after that comfortable win by the Terps.

So where does that leave us? Let’s assume Carolina, Duke and Clemson are in. Wake Forest looks pretty good but as the competition heats up in conference, we'll find out if they're for real. That fifth team is potentially coming from Miami, Virginia, and possibly Florida State. If those three can't distinguish themselves in conference play, it's a short list of entrants to the tournament representing the ACC come March. Early season success has spoiled ACC teams in the past. On paper, some of the records this year still look impressive. It's when you go inside the records and look at some of the bad losses to historically average, non-ranked programs that having 4 in the tournament isn't so far fetched.