What’s done is done.
Don’t cry over spilt milk.
Let bygones be bygones.
Get over it.
Point taken. There’s no sense in dwelling on the merits of the ACC’s ham-handed expansion to a dozen members, as any number of well-worn admonitions would attest.
But resignation is no excuse for wearing blinders. Clearly, the results of expansion have not been as salutory as advertised, except in terms of garnering revenue. Besides waiting for that improved football profile to emerge, there’s mounting evidence the loss of round robin play during basketball’s regular season clouds the league’s ability to get teams into the NCAA tournament.
The recent growth of mega-conferences, much like the consolidation of banks and media outlets, is less a tested approach than a trendy choice, inevitably attended by unpredictable consequences. Expanded basketball leagues have felt forced to eliminate universal home-and-home competition, creating important advantages for some teams and disadvantages for others.
Coaches in power conferences believe NCAA tournament selectors underestimate the difficulty of intra-league competition in the best of circumstances. And the death of round-robin play exacerbates the problem. “I think a lot of conferences, especially the BCS conferences, are going to look at how they schedule as much as anything else,” said Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, whose team hosts North Carolina on Dec. 3 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. “A lot of things can be determined by the schedule.”
The vagaries of unbalanced league play can skew a league race, Izzo insisted. “Now you’re playing the top four teams in your league, maybe in a row, while somebody else plays the bottom four teams in a row,” he said. Taking on a wave of top teams risks both defeat and shaken confidence. Conversely, a rival facing weaker opposition can bolster its record and sense of self-worth. “What’s the most important thing in sports?” Izzo asked rhetorically to underline his point. “Confidence.”
Recognizing that truth, and saddled with a very young team, in 2008 Virginia Tech’s Seth Greenberg chose a modest nonconference challenge to build early confidence. The Hokies also were spared playing more than once each during the regular season against the four ACC schools that made the NCAA field. “The complaint is that they didn’t get a chance to play those four teams,” Izzo said. “On the other hand, those could have been four losses and they wouldn’t have had a snowball’s chance of getting into the tournament.”
Among the pitfalls Virginia Tech avoided in 2008 was a visit to Cameron Indoor Stadium, the toughest venue in the ACC. This season Boston College, Clemson, and Georgia Tech don’t venture to Duke, a league-mandated escape that could have a pronounced impact on the standings and, perhaps, postseason eligibility.
If, as expected, BC is among the league’s weakest teams, skipping Cameron gives it an advantage over similarly unimposing N.C. State and Virginia. Each faces Duke once, at Durham. Clemson has an edge over fellow first-division contender Miami, which meets the Blue Devils only at Cameron. Georgia Tech, fighting to rise above the middle of the pack, benefits compared to similarly situated Florida State and Maryland, which each face Duke twice.
Of course there’s no advantage in facing the Tar Heels, either, especially this season. Tell that to Duke, Maryland, Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia, which play UNC home and home. In fact, the poor Terps are the only squad that plays twice against both the Heels and Blue Devils. BC, Clemson, and Georgia Tech are the lucky ones who face the preseason national favorite just once each.
Looking deeper into schedules offers other insights into the shape of the upcoming season:
MIAMI: Now that coach Frank Haith got his program into the NCAAs for the first time since 2002, he’s moderated the nonconference schedule a bit…Takes on Kentucky, a victor in three previous meetings, at Rupp Arena on Dec. 6…Faces 4 teams from bottom 100, including in-state opponents North Florida, Mercer, and Florida International... No league champs or Top 25 teams on schedule outside ACC except in Paradise Jam in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, with Wisconsin...Plays Duke and UNC in consecutive mid-February games…3 of last 5 contests on the road…Never plays more than 3 games at home at BankUnited Center…Earliest opener in the ACC, hosting Clemson on Dec. 21…Single games against upper-echelon ACC rivals Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest at home, with one-shot deals at Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia…Don’t face the Yellow Jackets until next-to-last game of regular season…Play UNC twice.
NORTH CAROLINA: Only ACC schedules of comparable difficulty undertaken by Duke and Virginia Tech…Half of games at Smith Center, where Heels suffered both regular season losses in 2008 (vs. Maryland and Duke)…Faces NCAA participants Kentucky, Michigan State, and Oral Roberts, all by Dec. 13…UK, with 16 more all-time wins (1,966 vs. 1,950), plays at Chapel Hill in second game of season…In field at Thanksgiving-weekend EA Sports Maui Invitational, with 2008 NCAA entrants Indiana, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Texas…Never more than two straight home games…Evansville and Penn only bottom 100 opponents…ACC opener against Boston College on Jan. 4…Following BC, hosts College of Charleston and coach Bobby Cremins, formerly of Georgia Tech…UNC-Asheville, a 2008 opponent, only in-state rival from beyond ACC…For fourth time since ACC expansion 5 seasons ago, plays once against Wake Forest, a traditional rival and potential league power, this year on Jan. 11 at Winston-Salem…Starts season at home with Penn, among four Ivy League schools on ACC schedules, with Harvard (BC), Brown (UVa), and Columbia (Virginia Tech)…Meets Michigan State at Ford Field in Detroit, site of Final Four.
N.C. STATE: Recovering from a losing season that ended with 9 consecutive losses, and still lacking a proven playmaker, Sidney Lowe has built a schedule that apportions challenges cautiously…2 of 6 in-state opponents, Winston-Salem State and East Carolina, ranked in the bottom 100 of the 2008 RPI…Like Georgia Tech and Virginia, not involved in an early-season tournament…Excluded from the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, plays 2 power conference opponents, along with NCAAs entrant Davidson and Winthrop…Visits New Orleans and Florida, both coaching stops for assistant coach Monte Towe…Meets Davidson at Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, site of 2008 ACC Tournament…Ends 6-game home stand on New Year’s Eve against Towson and head coach Pat Kennedy, who was 5-1 at Raleigh while directing Florida State during 1990s…Also hosts Marquette (No. 25 in 2008 AP poll) with new head coach Buzz Williams, and Loyola (Maryland), coached by Jimmy Patsos, former Maryland assistant...
Only meeting with Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where last beat a Mike Krzyzewski-coached squad in 1988, led by 17 points from freshman guard Rodney Monroe.
VIRGINIA: With a single double-figure scorer returning (Mamadi Diane) and 8 underclassmen, coach Dave Leitao has chosen an unimposing schedule…17 of 27 games at home, a higher portion than any ACC school except Boston College…Plays four BCS opponents, but all on a downbeat: Syracuse, Minnesota, South Florida, and Auburn...Only non-ACC road games at Syracuse and Minnesota (with coach Tubby Smith) in ACC/Big 10 Challenge…Hosts South Florida of Big East and SEC’s Auburn, coached by former Tar Heel Jeff Lebo…Also receives Charlottesville visit from Xavier, only Top 25 team (No. 12 in 2008) on schedule from beyond ACC…Takes on 5 in-state teams besides Virginia Tech...Plays North Carolina twice and once at Duke, an identical challenge shared by Miami and N.C. State…Opens season with 4 straight home games, and 7 of first 9…Finishes season with 5 of 7 at John Paul Jones Arena…Hosts Brown, winner of 19 last year under Craig Robinson, Barack Obama’ brother-in-law who has since moved to Oregon State…Plays on arguably ACC’s six toughest home courts: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Maryland, UNC, and Virginia Tech.
VIRGINIA TECH: After last year’s schedule likely cost his team an NCAA bid, Greenberg scheduled more games away from home than at Virginia Tech…Only ACC squad participating in two in-season tournaments… Field in Puerto Rico Tip-Off Classic includes NCAA entrants Memphis, Xavier, and Southern Cal…Plays at least one New York team (Columbia) in 2 games of pre-Christmas Holiday Festival at Madison Square Garden…BC and Duke can wind up at Madison Square Garden if they advance in other early tournaments...Also meets NCAA teams Mount St. Mary’s, Wisconsin (ACC/Big 10 Challenge), and Georgia, SEC Tournament champ coached by Dennis Felton, former Clemson assistant…Takes on Navy at Verizon Center in D.C., likely a hostile court…Elon, coached by former Wake assistant Ernie Nestor, comes to Cassell Coliseum the night before Thansgiving…Single meeting with North Carolina takes place in next-to-last game of season, March 4 at Blacksburg…Longest homestand 3 games at mid-January against UVa, Richmond, and BC...Opens ACC play at Duke, still burr under Greenberg's saddle, on Jan. 4.
WAKE FOREST: Heavily reliant on underclassmen, and eager for a return to the NCAAs for the first time since 2005, coach Dino Gaudio has crafted an uneven and generally unimpressive schedule…Only NCAA entrants faced are crippled Indiana at Joel Coliseum and Brigham Young in Utah…Field in Anaheim Classic, first in-season tournament for Wake since 2005-06, includes Arizona State, directed by Herb Sendek, former N.C. State head coach…Opens with 3 home contests, leaves for Anaheim, returns for 3 more games at Joel…Plays archrival UNC on Jan. 11 in ACC opener...Tar Heels’ visit to Winston-Salem adds degree of difficulty to already-dangerous stretch with 5 of 7 games on road…No Top 25 opponents from last season, even among other 7 teams in Anaheim Classic…Forced to play consecutive away games against ACC competition 3 different times during season, including 2 of last 3 prior to ACC Tournament…Of 4 bottom 100 teams on schedule, Winston-Salem State, N.C. Central, and East Carolina from within North Carolina…Other in-state opponent from outside ACC is UNC-Wilmington…Indiana, sole BCS rival on schedule, excellent example of unanticipated factors (probation, new coach, early NBA departures, transfers) lessening value of game in predicting strength of schedule.







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Now let's say Kentucky, MSU, etc. falter and have a down year. ALL you ABC'ers will be exclaiming how UNC plays a weak non-conference schedule (remember last season). BLAH, BLAH, BLAH...YADDA, YADDA, YADDA! The same could be said of anyone outside of the ACC who played Duke during the 2006-2007 season. Duke was expected to be good that year. Instead, they turned out to be mediocre at best. Anyone that scheduled them thinking they were going to up the ante come tournament time was sadly mistaken. Much like the Heels of the infamous 8-20 season (don't ask me what year that was...I'm trying my best to push it out of memory). It happens. So, I don't want to hear any whining from you ABC'ers.
September 9, 2008 8:08 a.m.