Players now turn away from college life

Two weeks before the deadline on declaring for the 1984 NBA Draft, Michael Jordan was still planning to return for his senior year at UNC. I remember him telling me: "I enjoy college life." Coach Dean Smith would later persuade Jordan it was in his best interest financially to turn pro a year early, and so he did. But left to his own counsel, Jordan might have stayed for his senior year.

I wonder how many young basketball stars today truly enjoy college life. Grant Hill, Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, and now Tyler Hansbrough all found reasons to stay four years. Most players with a decision turn the other way.

UNC Coach Roy Williams said recently he believes any player not guaranteed to be taken in the top 20 picks should return to school. In this draft where there is so much depth and equality, a player not drafted among the top 20 could easily fall to the second round. There is no guaranteed money for second round picks-the only thing guaranteed is a loss of eligibility.

UNC's Tywon Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green have all told the NBA they are not just "testing the waters." They say they have entered this draft with the intent of joining the league. At the same time, all three players told WRAL they plan to return to school if they are not going to be first-round picks. But the question is-how do you know for certain whether you will actually be drafted in the first round?

NBA teams typically evaluate many more players than they can select. It is in their interest to identify several collegians who can help their team. This is particularly true of the stronger franchises-and they are the ones who make their selections during the latter part of the first round. A team with the 20th pick will show interest in, say, a couple of point guards just in case a player they want gets taken off the board by a team with an earlier selection. On the other hand, this team may also show interest in a couple of shooting guards, in the event they don't re-sign a veteran free agent. And teams are always looking for big men. So even though a team may have a need at point guard or shooting guard, if a big man with potential is still undrafted at the time this team gets to pick, those point guards and shooting guards in which the team showed interest could miss out on the first round.

Injury is another issue. A player may enter the draft because of the fear a future college injury will hurt his stock. But a player may also become injured during the NBA tryout process. An untimely injury can move a player from the guaranteed money to the land of no guarantees.

Ask former Duke star Carlos Boozer about falling to the second round. Boozer left Duke after his junior year, expecting that he would be drafted in the first round. That didn't happen. Boozer managed to play his way into the league as a second-round pick with no guarantees. But his story is unusual. And he had no safety net. If a team has just one open slot, it will keep the first round pick over the second round pick, because the first rounder's money is guaranteed. Free agents actually are better off than second round selections, because they can negotiate with teams that need them. Second round picks are often selected by and bound to franchises that may have great depth at their position.

The UNC trio, in order to remain in college, must withdraw from the draft before June 16. The players may have a better idea how solid their first round stock is by that date, but likely this will be a leap of faith.

There are so many reasons why a player wants to take this leap. All his life he has dreamed of playing in the NBA-making big money and living the NBA lifestyle. The NBA means a life of just two obligations-basketball and free time. There is no going to class. Family members can be a big influence, persuading a player he is ready (they want the money and the glamour, too), when an in depth conversation with an NBA GM would suggest the player needs another year or two of development in college. Players see guys they've competed against playing at the next level. Egos and pride get involved-"if he can play in the league I can play in the league," players and their families reason. Fans and media critics who question a player's readiness only fuel his desire to prove people wrong.

And so, more often than not, college players who commit to the NBA Draft, stay in the draft. When it comes to their chances of getting drafted in the first-round players hear what they want to hear. Some do get drafted in the first round. Some will make the NBA as a second-round pick or a free agent. Some will wind up playing in Europe. And we should note here that sometimes players who return to college wind up hurting their NBA stock-maybe they are no longer the focal point of the offense or maybe they get hurt.

To go or stay? Either way this is one big game of chance.