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Barry Jacobs

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WRAL sports columnist Barry Jacobs

Draft Limbo Lingers, Lessens For UNC

The suspense is over. Some of it, anyway.

North Carolina’s starting guards, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson, won the race. They declared for the NBA draft before John Edwards, the Tar Heel fan and former presidential candidate, declared whom he would support for the Democratic nomination to succeed George W. Bush.

The players had until this Sunday, the deadline for announcing their intentions, to throw their hats into the professional ring. If Edwards wishes to enhance his political leverage, he has until the May 6 North Carolina primary to indicate his preference.

Of course Edwards, like UNC junior Tyler Hansbrough, can choose to simply stand pat and let the election tide roll on without him.

The rewards for Hansbrough’s decision to stand pat – in his case to return for his senior year -- are quite clearcut.

One more year as a Tar Heel means Hansbrough, the reigning national player of the year, will be around to set a slew of UNC and ACC records. In the process the three time All-America will secure a rare measure of immortality; clearly he will be counted among the best produced by a conference second to none in its pantheon of great collegiate players.

Hansbrough's return assures another chance to win championships within the league and nationally, and to play alongside living companions Bobby Frasor and Marcus Ginyard. He will almost certainly earn his degree in communications.

By staying four years, Hansbrough also will be a far more marketable commodity as he enters the pros, burnishing his name recognition a la Wake Forest’s Tim Duncan and Duke’s Grant Hill. This is no small matter in an era when few superior players stick around to exhaust their eligibility.

Barring injury, Hansbrough’s draft status probably will not be much different in 2009 than it would be if he departed now. NBA folks project him as a mid-first rounder, his work ethic and toughness counterbalancing concerns about size and athleticism.

Since Hansbrough’s family is financially comfortable, the compulsion to leave in order to provide for loved ones is absent. By all accounts 2009 is expected to be a weaker draft, meaning Hansbrough could actually move up later by not moving on now.

The draft realities may prove similar for Ellington and Lawson, who chose to test the waters regarding an early exit.

As long as neither guard signs with an agent, they can return for their junior seasons by removing their names from draft consideration by mid-June.

If Lawson and Ellington do come back, North Carolina will be the prohibitive favorite to win the NCAA title, a prospect that can be both exciting and burdensome. There is a chance the roster might be too stacked with talent, a problem that undermined the 1994 Heels a year after capturing the NCAA title.

Even if both guards leave, UNC will have a strong backcourt with Frasor, Danny Green, Will Graves, and freshman point guard Larry Drew Jr.

Frasor can play either guard position, assuming he recovers fully from tearing his ACL a dozen games into the 2008 season. Drew is more physically suited to pushing the ball in Roy Williams’ attack. Surrounded by veterans, freshmen playmakers from North Carolina’s Ed Cota to Georgia Tech’s Kenny Anderson to Duke’s Bobby Hurley led recent ACC teams to a Final Four.

Lawson’s extended absence this season due to a high-ankle sprain had to be a sobering reminder of the tenuous nature of athletic prowess. A point guard reliant upon speed and quickness, as is Lawson, certainly cannot afford repeated leg woes. According to Georgia Tech coach Paul Hewitt, an ankle sprain incurred in the 2005 ACC Tournament helped to propel playmaker Jarrett Jack to leave early for the NBA.

Ellington’s draft prospects are a bit murkier than Lawson’s. From the time he hit the winning 3-pointer at Clemson to secure an overtime victory in early January, Ellington emerged as a reliable, often clutch shooter. His ballhandling, decision-making, and defense improved too. But shooting guards are relatively common NBA commodities.

The wealth of guards already declared for the ’08 draft also limits the chances that Ellington or Lawson will be picked high in the first round. Most prominent in the group of pending early departees are Derrick Rose of Memphis, Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless, Southern Cal’s O.J. Mayo, Indiana’s Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin of Texas, Darren Collison of UCLA, and Chris Douglas- Roberts of Memphis. None are shorter than the 5-11 Lawson. Rose, Mayo, and Douglas-Roberts are at least as big as the 6-4 Ellington, and are more highly regarded.

Workouts over the next two months can change a player’s standing with the pros. Draft position may be of secondary importance to a team that finds a youngster who fits its needs. That’s why it makes sense for Ellington and Lawson, like so many others, to do a little exploring free of charge or entanglement.

Today’s announcements mean that phase one of the guessing game is over. Hansbrough stays, the starting UNC backcourt remains in limbo. Just like John Edwards.

 

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My friend Grant

Duke is a good place to work. If you have any kind of health problem you go right to the head of the line. At a place where doctors have to get results, or their contracts aren't renewed!

I guess this means there's no chance Lawson or Ellington plan on getting their degrees.

If you have been around anyone who worked at Duke, you'd hate Duke too corcy.

I like your columns Barry, but NOBODY cares who John Edwards endorses in the primary.

He proved what an incompetent politician he was with his idiotic comments about how he "hates" Duke. 39,000 of his former constituents work at Duke.

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