Carolina still title favorite

Decision Day 2008, the day Carolina Tar Heel lovers and haters have been eagerly anticipating, has finally come and gone.

The result?

One more year of Tyler Hansbrough’s hustle, rebounding, last-second shots, free throw shooting and Greg Paulus-esque flopping, and a possible end to the careers of Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson.

For the record, Ellington and Lawson will not hire agents, leaving open the possibility that they will return to Chapel Hill for their junior campaigns.

If we assume for the sake of this blog that the two sophomores forgo the remainder of their college eligibility and take their game to the NBA, or NBDL…or Europe, as the case may be, then there will be a changing of the guard, so to speak, at the Smith Center.

With Lawson gone and Quentin Thomas graduating (who would have thought we’d be talking about that as a real loss for the Heels a year ago?) the point guard duties fall to Bobby Frasor and prep standout Larry Drew.

No Wayne Ellington likely means a starting spot for do-everything wingman Danny Green, as Carolina doesn’t really have another player on the roster that fills the prototypical shooting guard profile.

So how does this affect the boys in Carolina blue?

Frasor has been far from durable in his days at Chapel Hill, missing most of this past season with an ACL tear and 10 games during his sophomore campaign with a bad right foot. Can his body hold up and allow him to shoulder the bulk of the minutes for an entire year? His medical history says “No.”

Drew is a solid pass-first point guard with decent quickness and a reliable outside shot, but he’s not the dominant impact freshman that we’ve seen so often lately in the form of Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant and Greg Oden.

There is no doubt the Heels will miss number 22’s 17 points per game and 40 percent shooting from beyond the arc, and Lawson’s ability to lead the break at the speed of sound – Frasor and Drew are solid but not spectacular.

Fortunately for Carolina fans, they don’t have to be for this team to win the national title.

Even without Lawson and Ellington, Carolina will be the preseason favorite to win the national championship, and deservedly so.

If Carolina doesn’t have the best frontcourt in the nation, then I’d love to see who does. They return two players in Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson that showed glimpses, during Carolina’s ACC and NCAA Tournament runs, of being the dominant players they have the potential to become.

Thompson has a solid, if not always aggressive, offensive game, and Stepheson has the body to be an intimidating interior defender – just ask the Washington State band member that took his blocked shot to the face in the Sweet 16.

This coming year, the Heels add two phenomenal front court recruits in Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller, both of whom fall under the category of  “skilled big men that can run.” They both played in the McDonald’s All-American game (Zeller started for the East squad) and combined for 17 points and eight rebounds in 25 minutes.

Oh, and then there’s that other Tyler.

You know, the one that swept the six player of the year awards and will likely shatter every important Carolina and conference record on his way to becoming the first four-time first-team All-America in the history of the sport.

While Heels fans will lament the possible loss of two of their starters, they should take solace in the fact that it could have been much worse - compared to the other teams that made it to San Antonio this past year, North Carolina got off easy.

Kansas lost Darnell Jackson, Russell Robinson and Sasha Kaun to graduation and Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur to early entry.

UCLA waved goodbye to super freshman Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and are hanging on the edge of their seats to see what Darren Collison will do.

Memphis could be nearly unrecognizable next year, with Joey Dorsey and Andre Allen graduating and the rest of the starting lineup, including Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, making themselves available for the Draft.

There is still time for Ellington and Lawson to head back to Chapel Hill, but even if they pack their bags for the pros, the rest of the Heels can still count on packing theirs for a trip to Detroit.