Many North Carolina fans were disappointed Thursday night, when star underclassmen Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington bypassed an opportunity to declare their plans for the NBA draft at the team's annual postseason banquet.

But nobody should have been surprised.

Given the players' current projected draft positions (the latter half of the first round for Hansbrough and Lawson, lower for Ellington), the shifting-sands nature (see below) of this year's draft-eligible talent pool, the 10-week span between now and the June 26 draft, and the countless variables associated with the 2009 draft, it's impossible at this point to paint a clear picture of the consequences of their decisions.

"We're not finished with the process," said UNC coach Roy Williams, who is gathering information from his NBA contacts on behalf of the three players. "They need to make the decision by (April 27), and they'll make a decision before that, but we're not finished with the process right now."

The NBA's early entry deadline this year is April 27. Under NCAA rules, early entries who withdraw their names by June 16 (10 days before the draft) can return to college basketball without penalty as long as they (1) haven't previously "tested the waters," and (2) don't sign with an agent or otherwise act as a professional (endorsements, etc.).

1. Draft slots. Williams described this as a "little" factor, not a "huge" one, but almost all underclassmen take it under consideration. N.C. State freshman J.J. Hickson has described it as the main factor in his decision. For most prospects, the question becomes: How high is high enough?

Under the terms of the NBA's 2008-09 rookie salary scale, all first-round picks receive guaranteed two-year contracts, with team options for third and fourth years. This year's No. 1 pick will receive about $8.3 million over two seasons. The No. 5 pick will receive about $5.5 million over two seasons. Here are the approximate two-year values of some other first-round slots: $3.6 million at No. 10, $2.8 million at No. 15, $2.2 million at No. 20, $1.8 million at No. 25 and $1.6 million at No. 30.

Some prospects will come out only for the huge money at the top of the lottery. Others draw the line at the lottery (top 14 picks) itself. Still others see the most important line as the one that falls between the first round and the second. Second-round picks occasionally negotiate for guaranteed money, but it is not automatic. Even the "disaster scenario" for a first-round pick (e.g., a major injury, or being waived after one day) is worth at least $1.6 million. The disaster scenario for a second-round pick is no NBA paycheck, plus the loss of his college eligibility.

2. Shifting sands. Even if you have a direct line to each of the NBA's 30 teams, and all 30 are being completely forthright with their responses, how can you get truly accurate feedback when even the NBA folks themselves aren't sure who is going to be eligible for the draft this year?

Already, 28 college underclassmen and a handful of prominent international prospects have announced their early entries. Many of the college freshmen who put their names into the mix over the last month are expected to be high first-round picks, including Kansas State forward Michael Beasley, Memphis guard Derrick Rose, Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless, Southern California guard O.J. Mayo, Indiana guard Eric Gordon, UCLA forward Kevin Love, LSU forward Anthony Randolph, Texas A&M center DeAndre Jordan and Syracuse forward Donte Green. Each of these names likely bumps those of Hansbrough, Lawson, Hickson and Ellington down the list and closer to the second round.

Moving forward, undecided underclassmen such as Memphis forward Chris Douglas-Roberts, Texas point guard D.J. Augustin, Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet and UCLA point guard Darren Collison also could impact the ACC players' draft projections. On the other hand, any projected first-rounder who later withdraws his name would impact the ACC players in the other direction.

3. Pre-draft camp. The most important draft-related happening between the April 27 early entry deadline and the June 16 withdrawal deadline is the May 27-29 pre-draft camp in Orlando.

That invitation-only event, which includes interviews, physical measurements and on-court competition, offers NBA talent evaluators an up-close look at the top prospects on and off the court. Many players also schedule personal workouts with individual teams. The results of these events also play into each prospect's ultimate draft position, sometimes necessitating another round of information-gathering before the withdrawal deadline.

4. The 2009 draft. Those who are particularly sensitive to their draft position ask themselves this question: If I return to college and improve my game, and next year's draft isn't expected to have as much quality talent available, could waiting another year mean an improvement of 15-20 draft slots and the huge financial payoff that would come with it?

Louisville forward Earl Clark, who was projected as a borderline first-round pick this year, is projected as a lottery pick in many 2009 mock drafts. (Yes, there are such things.) Clark, a rising junior, recently reversed his decision to leave the Cardinals this year. One factor he likely considered: Unlike this year's college freshman class, which is expected to dominate the first round in June, next year's college freshman class (current high school seniors) is expected to produce only a handful of first-rounders in 2009.

Like everything else in this early NBA entry mix, of course, that factor is subject to change.