Maybe Madness Hits Chapel Hill

Most men’s basketball seasons at the University of North Carolina begin with Midnight Madness and end with March Madness. But, for the second time in four years, there’s a further, mad capper to the season in Chapel Hill. Call it Maybe Madness.

We don’t know yet whether Maybe Madness is chronic or episodic. But there is no denying its prominence this spring, much like the interlude following the Tar Heels’ capture of the 2005 national championship.

Virtually from the moment the final buzzer sounded in UNC’s Final Four loss to Kansas, questions and speculation surrounded the team’s premier players. Much gnashing of teeth and consulting with experts has percolated through the intervening weeks, perhaps to be resolved as early as Thursday night’s team banquet.

Quite simply, will junior Tyler Hansbrough and sophomores Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson remain in college, content with their role as quasi-professional student-athletes, or will they take the plunge and declare their intention to join the National Basketball Association?

If they stay, North Carolina will be favored to capture the 2009 NCAA title, committing one and all to a season in which that theme, and progress toward it, will dominate conversation.

If only Ellington leaves, the prospects won’t change significantly for UNC, even though Danny Green would be the sole proven outside shooter. If Lawson goes, the Heels might still be favored, but they will be questionable at the point with only recovering Bobby Frasor and freshman Larry Drew Jr.

If Hanbrough departs, or all three move on, the Heels are reduced to the still-impressive status of a strong, deep team in the mix for national honors.

The three Tar Heels, along with other collegiate basketball players, have until April 27 to declare for the June 26th NBA draft. Then they have until June 16 to change their minds.

“They give college kids too much leeway,” said an NBA scout with college coaching experience. “You don’t know who’s in and who’s out.” He described the span during which players can keep one foot in school and one in the pros as “a two-month limbo period.”

As long as players don’t sign with an agent, or miss class while trying out for an NBA team, they retain their eligibility. That means they can leave their options open until the last minute, trying to attract the interest of a pro franchise, then return to school without suffering an overt penalty.

Most players who throw their headbands into the ring eventually snatch them back prior to the deadline.

That was the case with Virginia’s Sean Singletary and Clemson’s James Mays. Each tested the pro waters following his junior season, only to withdrew his name from draft consideration. Each returned in 2007-08, and apparently did not improve his draft status as a senior.

Marty Blake, director of scouting services for the NBA, estimates there are about 9,000 men playing at all levels of college basketball. “About 8,000 think they can play in the NBA,” he said dismissively.

Singetary and Mays paid their own way to try out. This year, a new NCAA rule allows each player one expenses-paid, 48-hour trip to work out for an NBA team.

Additionally, about 64 draft-eligible players, seniors and international prospects included, are invited by the NBA to take a free, late-May trip to Orlando. Assuming they don't have agents advising them to sit out, the players are then evaluated by an array of NBA scouts, coaches, and executives.

Mid-spring is generally too late for a college coach to replace a draft-eligible player, certainly not with someone of comparable caliber in this era of early commitments. Programs susceptible to early defections – meaning programs that sign top prep prospects – therefore tend toward redundant recruiting.

Further undermining stability and planning, freshmen are leaving for pro ball with increasing frequency, a trend exacerbated by an arrangement between the NCAA and NBA that essentially mandates a year in college before a player can be drafted.

ESPN’s web site projects half of the 14 lottery picks in 2008 will be freshmen, including five of the top six.

The relatively recent rule change that requires a player to be at least 19 in the calendar year he’s drafted did end jumps directly from high school to the NBA. But forcing a youngster to attend college does not exactly uphold the interests of higher education, especially when attending a single semester of school assures the retention of eligibility through freshman season.

Not surprisingly, there is renewed talk of instituting a two-year college commitment before players can join the pros. Georgia Tech coach Paul Hewitt said players should be free to skip college entirely, or else be required to attend school through their sophomore year. College baseball requires a three-year commitment. “I think it would serve everyone – the kids, the NCAA, the NBA, the schools,” Hewitt said.

The coach speaks from experience. Since 2003, six first-year players have left the ACC for the pros. Half of the quick-to-quit were freshmen at Georgia Tech, more than anywhere else in the league. (The others were UNC’s Marvin Williams in 2005 and Brandan Wright in 2007, and Duke’s Luol Deng in 2004.)

Hewitt lost Chris Bosh in 2003, yet directed the Yellow Jackets to the 2004 national championship game. Last season he was not so fortunate. Freshmen playmaker Javaris Crittenton and forward Thaddeus Young both left in 2007 and were first-round picks. Hewitt recruited sufficient replacements to cope, but his ’08 team was slow to jell, especially at point guard.

"I don’t know how you overcome it in recruiting,” Hewitt said. “More than the recruiting, it is vital to work with the guys in your program to improve.”

The ACC’s most likely freshman defector this year, as many expected from the day he signed, is J.J. Hickson of N.C. State. Hickson quickly offered his name for draft consideration, and made no mention of education or team in articulating the perameters of his decision. But he did leave open a return to college by not signing with an agent.

Hickson “is a real talent,” an NBA scout said. A second scout agreed, but said a team “would have to draft him for a two-year apprenticeship. He’s not ready to help a team yet.”

Chris Monter of Monter Draft News is enthusiastic about Hickson’s prospects. “I think he has the upside and potential that would intrigue NBA people,” said the longtime draft analyst. “I think potentially he’s a first round pick. It depends on who comes out.”

That shifting landscape makes it complicated to project draft position, not only for Hickson but for UNC’s Ellington, Hansbrough, and Lawson, the playmaker considered the most likely Heel to get gone even before a high-ankle sprain underscored the tenuousness of his distinctive mobility.

When Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Sean May, and Rashad McCants left UNC after winning the 2005 NCAA title, all but McCants were lottery picks. By contrast, none of the ACC’s early birds in 2008, including Hansbrough, the consensus national player of the year, figure to be chosen that high.

That leaves them competing for the other 16 first round draft spots, and the affections of the teams that hold those picks.

Players with eligibility remaining must gauge the overall strength of the current year’s draft before making a decision to participate, Monter said. He considers this a relatively deep draft, particularly at guard. Meanwhile the incoming college freshman class is not considered strong.

Monter thinks first-round selection is possible for Ellington, saying the UNC shooting guard “is a very skilled player” who “can do a lot of things.” Yet he wonders if Ellington’s draft value will be higher in 2009.

Of course Monter also sees little downside in a sophomore exploring his options for a few months, trying to find a team that is a good fit. After all, the only ones who suffer during Maybe Madness are teammates, coaches, and fans.