It's that time of year again.
ACC basketball fans are asking: If (insert favorite team here) can get to (insert final ACC record here), will that be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament?
The answers to those questions remain complicated. (All-purpose response: "It depends.") Each situation is unique, obviously, and a team’s overall record, schedule strength, ACC Tournament performance and other characteristics come into play as well. Beyond that, the old "rules of thumb" — e.g., 8-8 ACC teams almost always get NCAA bids — clearly are not as reliable in the post-expansion era as they were previously.
With those enormous limitations in mind, here is a complete look at how ACC teams with various conference records have been treated by the NCAA Tournament selection committee since 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 (now 65) teams.
10-6 Or Better = 100 Percent
The ACC had 68 teams finish four or more games over .500 in regular-season conference play from 1985-2007. This includes the only two undefeated teams of the era, 1987 North Carolina (14-0) and 1999 Duke (16-0), as well as anyone that finished with league records of 15-1, 14-2, 12-2, 13-3, 12-4, 11-3, 11-5, 10-4, 10-6 or 9-5. All 68 of these teams made the NCAA Tournament. NCAA bid rate: 100 percent (68/68).
9-7 Or 8-6 = 91.3 Percent
The ACC had 23 teams finish 8-6 or 9-7 in conference play from 1985-2007. All but two, 2000 Virginia (9-7) and 2006 Florida State (9-7), made the NCAA Tournament. (Note: Both of those teams went 0-1 at the ACC Tournament.) The record of the other 21 is pretty darn impressive. Three of the teams — Georgia Tech (8-6) in 1990, UNC (9-7) in 2000 and Georgia Tech (9-7) again in 2004 — went all the way to the Final Four. Six others made the Sweet 16. Only four of the 23 lost in the first round. Those are pretty amazing numbers for teams that finished barely above .500 in ACC play, and that’s a huge endorsement for the quality of play in the conference over the years. NCAA bid rate: 91.3 percent (21/23).
8-8 Or 7-7 = 80 Percent (And Falling)
The ACC had 20 teams finish 7-7 or 8-8 in conference play from 1985-2007. Sixteen of those teams made the NCAA Tournament. Another, 1992 Virginia (8-8), captured the NIT championship. Georgia Tech (8-8) declined an NIT bid in 1995. The 2005 Virginia Tech (8-8) team had only 15 overall wins on Selection Sunday, and no 15-win team ever has received an at-large NCAA slot. The 2006 Maryland team (8-8), which was 19-12 on Selection Sunday, lost in the first round of the NIT. Overall, only three of the ACC's last five 8-8 teams made it. NCAA bid rate: 80 percent (16/20).
7-9 Or 6-8 = 42.9 Percent (And Falling)
The ACC had 28 teams finish 6-8 or 7-9 in conference play from 1985-2007. Interestingly, six of the eight teams that finished 6-8 received NCAA invitations, but only six of the 20 teams that finished 7-9 were invited. In fact, 13 of the last 15 teams that finished 7-9 were left out. NCAA bid rate: 42.9 percent (12/28).
5-9 Or 6-10 = 5.3 Percent
The ACC had 19 teams finish 5-9 or 6-10 in conference play from 1985-2007. Only one, Florida State (6-10) in 1998, made the NCAA field. (Note: FSU also went 0-1 in the ACC Tournament that year.) NCAA bid rate: 5.3 percent (1/19).
5-11 Or Worse = 0 Percent
The ACC had 50 teams finish with records of 4-10, 5-11 or worse in conference play from 1985-2007. None of those teams made the NCAA field. NCAA bid rate: 0 percent (0/50).







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Duke and UNC both ended up as No. 1 seeds and Maryland a No. 4 seed in 1998, the year FSU made the NCAA Tournament with a 6-10 conference record. (The Devils, Heels and Terps were the only three ACC teams that ended up with winning league records that season.) The Seminoles were a combined 0-6 during the regular season against those three powerful conference opponents, and the selection committee obviously gave that significant weight.
Thanks for reading!
February 20, 2008 8:34 a.m.
February 19, 2008 12:50 p.m.
League play is a "zero sum game". That is, for every winner, there is a loser. To win 8 games against relatively mediocre competition isn't going to guarantee anything.
Don't get me wrong. The ACC is not a "weak" conference. But they are hardly the dominating force of years past, and are to some extent still living off the reputation of teams and players that are long gone.
They will be fortunate to get more than 4 teams in this year's tournament, IMHO.
February 19, 2008 10:20 a.m.