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3:15 a.m. • 2-10-12

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WRAL.com Sports blogger David Glenn

David Glenn's ACC Journal

David Glenn, editor of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, dishes out the latest news on top recruiting prospects and shares his insights on ACC basketball and football for WRAL.com.

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Extended Interview: Greg Paulus

Duke-UNC: Three Keys

In most years, Duke and North Carolina win a lot of their games mainly because they have substantially more talent than their opponents, or because they out-coach the other side.

Over the last 25 seasons or so, however, the head-to-head matchups between the two college basketball heavyweights typically have come down to other factors — including effort, emotion, execution or even a small dose of good, old-fashioned luck.

The game plans, of course, change from year to year, depending on the teams' personnel. Here are three areas that are likely to play significant roles in the 2008 chapter of the storied rivalry, including Wednesday night in Chapel Hill.

1. Turnovers.

Nine of Duke's last 11 opponents have committed 18 or more turnovers, and the Blue Devils have turned many of those miscues into easy baskets. It's a high-risk, high-reward approach for coach Mike Krzyzewski — over the last five games, Clemson, Maryland and N.C. State all shot better than 50 percent from the field against the Devils — but the positives have outweighed the negatives against most opponents.

UNC has not been a high-turnover team overall this season, which is amazing given coach Roy Williams' up-tempo approach. But in the two ACC games where the Tar Heels did cough it up frequently — at Clemson (19) and at Florida State (21) — they needed overtime to win.

Star point guard Ty Lawson (ankle) played only four minutes for Carolina at FSU, which helps explain that ugly turnover number, but nobody is sure what to expect from Lawson against Duke. Backup Quentin Thomas, a senior, has played well against the Blue Devils in the past, but he also has melted down at times under pressure from ACC opponents.

2. Tyler Hansbrough.

Much of the pre-game discussion has been about the ugly incident between these two teams last season, when Duke's Gerald Henderson broke Hansbrough's nose with a reckless foul that led to Henderson's ejection and suspension. All parties involved seem intent on leaving that controversy behind them, but UNC's All-America big man clearly remains the center of attention in this matchup — at both ends of the floor.

When the Tar Heels have the ball, the Blue Devils will have a problem. This Duke team lacks a traditional post player in its regular rotation. That hasn't cost the Devils against most foes in this era of few big-time post producers, but if Maryland journeyman Bambale Osby (20 points, 15 rebounds) can dominate the Devils in the paint, what might Hansbrough do? Undersized forwards Lance Thomas and Kyle Singler will be key parts of a defensive plan for Hansbrough that will include lots of double-teams, and the style of officiating in the post will come under tremendous scrutiny.

When the Blue Devils have the ball, the Tar Heels will have a problem. Hansbrough and power forward Deon Thompson are post players who don't like to stray far from the basket, offensively or defensively. In some of its lineups, Duke has five players who can hit 3-pointers or drive to the basket, and neither Hansbrough nor Thompson appears comfortable defending on the perimeter. Who will handle Singler, who is 6-9 but handles the ball well and can hit 3-pointers?

3. 3-Pointers.

This area represents another significant contrast in the philosophies of these two great programs. In ACC competition, only Virginia has attempted more 3-pointers than Duke this season. Nobody has attempted fewer than the Tar Heels, whose half-court offense takes more of an inside-out approach.

Both teams have solid accuracy (34-35 percent) from long range in ACC play this season, and both are doing a good job of defending the 3-pointer. The Blue Devils are allowing their league opponents to hit only 28.6 percent from beyond the arc, the Tar Heels only 30.1 percent.

In close games, made 3-pointers often provide huge momentum swings. Both teams have circled opposing players in their scouting reports as particularly dangerous from long range, and Duke has more options in that regard. The Blue Devils' top perimeter shooters are Taylor King (42.7), Greg Paulus (42.3), Jon Scheyer (41.8), DeMarcus Nelson (39.7) and Singler (34.7). UNC's are Wayne Ellington (40.0), Danny Green (38.0) and Lawson (36.4).

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You got that right, Billygoat.

Like I said, Dook's fanbase just quadrupled in size for this game. Truth and the rest of the Pack are currently on the Devilwagon.

And to think, I almost believed you TBKR when you said you didn't care since you didn't have a dog in this fight. I wouldn't worry about the "Carolina refs". We only give them the nod during those imagined moments of gross injustice against the wronged Wolfpack.

There's a 4th factor: The Carolina refs.

Heh heh! LET'S GO DE-VILS!!! CLAP, CLAP, CLAP-CLAP-CLAP!!!

I think the interior players for UNC will be the difference in te game. With Lawson or without, if UNC can get it over half court...they'll get it inside for a close shot. On defense I think the pace of the game will help dictate the percentage of shots that are 3 point attempts. I know UNC's defense has been much maligned most of the year. They often come out and play well against Duke. I expect good defensive intensity this game. That's especially if Lawson can't play. The others will HAVE to give much extra to make up the difference. I think Thompson might have a very nice ballgame for UNC. If he and Hansbrough do well, UNC might very well win.

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