DURHAM _  You hate to admit it because the assertion is almost as predictable and commonplace a feature of recent basketball seasons as snowless days and gripes about rising gasoline prices.

You also hate to say it because the discussion takes on that nattering tone of political commentary in a presidential election year. There’s the same declaiming on who’s up, who’s down, who’s finished, and who is likely to advance; the same whiff of smug authority, of knowing an unknowable future.

Next time you're ready to jump to conclusions, recall how few pundits or pollsters picked Hillary Clinton to defeat Barack Obama in the New Hampshire’s Democratic primary. Just last weekend, how many sports experts had San Diego beating Indianapolis and New York topping Dallas in the NFL playoffs?

And don’t forget the Miami Hurricanes ensconced in the national basketball polls. The ACC intelligentsia picked the Canes to finish last.

College basketball analysts often seem incapable of living in the present. Either their judgments are based on what happened last year (see Miami), or their gaze is fixed firmly on the future. That’s why, two months in advance of postseason, just a game or two into league races, there’s already talk of who will make the NCAA Tournament and how many bids each conference will get.

Old-line coaches long resisted placing heavy emphasis on postseason aspirations, aware enjoyment of the journey is undercut when the basketball world defines success only in terms of final results. But that battle has been lost, and now collegiate seasons are calibrated almost from tipoff based on possible NCAA participation.

A corollary to that discussion includes which leagues are up, and which are down. Unfortunately, based on what we saw this past weekend in visits to Chapel Hill and Durham by teams supposedly in the ACC's upper echelon, the conference most decidedly is down.

Accustomed to top billing in national power ratings, the ACC has slipped to fourth according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings in USA Today, trailing the Pac-10, Big 12, and Big East. The RPI still has the ACC No. 1 – .0006 percent ahead of the Pac-10.

Only five of 12 ACC teams rank among Sagarin’s top 50, with Maryland lowest-rated at 102. The RPI likewise has five in the top 50, a paltry showing by ACC standards, with the Terrapins bringing up the rear at 132.

Last year, when the ACC had a single top-10 team in the polls (UNC) and flamed out in the NCAAs, seven squads finished among the RPI’s top 50.

Of course a lot can change as a season progresses. Remember that mighty Duke started 18-3 in 2007 and rose to fifth in the polls, only to finish 21-11. A 5-2 ACC start yielded an 8-8 league finish and a first round exit in the ACC tournament, the program’s worst showing since 1996.

On the other hand, Maryland started 2-5 in the ACC and finished 10-6. And who thought Virginia would wind up tied with North Carolina for first during the regular season, especially after a 1-3 ACC start?

Watching the Cavaliers in action on Sunday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium, it was difficult to imagine they can repeat last year’s showing, or finish in the top half of the ACC.

Duke, with UNC and perhaps Clemson clearly among the league’s elite, made more than half its shots. That despite launching 31 3-pointers, part of a perimeter-oriented strategy to negate a glaring lack of post strength. Only two Duke squads have derived a greater portion of their points from the bonusphere than this year’s group (32.6 percent).

Yet it was the Blue Devils’ defense that commanded from the start. The Devils held their own on the boards and had a dozen steals as they deflected, disrupted, trapped, and generally harassed a lackluster UVa offense. "I thought we didn't have one guy who didn't play hard and pretty well," said Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. "That's really kind of the first game that that's happened."

The Cavs were unimpressive, other than aggressive guards Calvin Baker and Sean Singletary, a senior who seemed able to get his shot at will against any defender except DeMarcus Nelson. Their miscues repeatedly drew the ire of coach Dave Leitao, wearing a grey pinstripe suite and a frequent scowl.

Virginia’s imprecise and unimposing performance was hardly unique. After witnessing the dismemberment of the Wolfpack at Chapel Hill on Saturday _ a result that still had Triangle basketball fans buzzing days later _ it was virtually impossible to imagine what possessed anyone to pick the Pack to finish third in the conference.

Scoffers in the Smith Center media room and beyond, who only months earlier had talked up N.C. State, couldn’t resist comparing the disarray and possible dissension within Sidney Lowe’s squad to the success enjoyed at Arizona State by Herb Sendek, his much-maligned predecessor. Never mind that many of Lowe’s detractors had openly soured on Sendek before he fled.

Meanwhile Maryland and Georgia Tech, two supposed contenders for first-division ACC status, struggled to break even overall. Both quickly fell to 0-2 in the conference.

So far only three visitors won in the first nine ACC games – Boston College at Maryland, Florida State at Georgia Tech, and North Carolina at Clemson.

Road performance within the conference is a key indicator of a team’s prowess; finishers near the top of the standings tend to at least hold their own on hostile courts. Since 1992, when Florida State joined the league, only about a quarter of upper-echelon teams had losing ACC road records.

UVa proved a notable exception to the rule last season, finishing tied for first despite a 3-5 mark away from home. In fact, no ACC team had a winning road record in 2007, the first time that’s happened at least since 1992.

Now that we are awash in ACC action, the relative strengths of the combatants should become apparent. After North Carolina and Duke, it looks like Clemson and Miami are the class of the league. We’re apt to learn a lot this coming Saturday, as the Tigers visit Durham and the Canes come to Raleigh.

Already it seems clear the perennial speculation about a down year by ACC standards may be amply justified. That shouldn't prevent us from enjoying the journey, however.