Note: UNC senior Gregg Found covers the Tar Heels for WRAL.com. This is his take on why Carolina will win Saturday.


This game features two competing theories. One is the Overdog Theory, which says that the undefeated team playing at home, ranked No. 1 in the country, with a Hall of Fame coach, a national player of the year candidate, a history of winning between the two schools and plenty of motivation to be a team that beat them once last year will emerge as the victor.

The other is the Rivalry Game Theory, which says that in a rivalry, records, rankings, momentum and any previous happenings can be disregarded because all that really matters is what happens, for one time, on the floor.

We’ll watch the game to find out which of the two theories will prevail. But here are a couple of reasons why the Tar Heels should take down the Wolfpack.

1.) Because they have the three best players on the floor

If the All-ACC first team were announced today, Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson would all find themselves in a Tar Heel-dominated top five. Simply put, they’re leading the Tar Heels, devastating their opponents and playing their way into plenty of accolades and honors.

Sure, the Tar Heels rely first on their fast break, then their secondary fast break, and then their offensive sets. But their true formula for scoring has been this: Lawson drives, Ellington shoots and Hansbrough bangs inside. More often than not, one of those three options yields points.

Why is it so hard to stop? In addition to just the pure talent of each player, it’s that those three parts work in unison, not antagonistically as in some teams. Lawson drives, and if he gets stopped, he dishes to Ellington for a shot or Hansbrough for a layup. Ellington shoots, and if he misses, Hansbrough fights for the rebound and puts it in. Hansbrough gets the ball inside, and if he’s double-teamed, he kicks it out to Lawson who swings it to Ellington.

Granted, that’s oversimplifying the offense and leaving out plenty of key components. But it’s the heart of what the Tar Heels do to score.

What happens when one of those three has an off-night? The slack gets picked up elsewhere.

In UNC’s Las Vegas Invitational win against Brigham Young, Lawson went out of the game after two minutes and didn’t return. So Hansbrough and Ellington posted their typical scoring numbers, Marcus Ginyard added nine and Danny Green poured in 14 points.

Against Davidson, Lawson went 2-for-7 and finished with only eight points. So Ellington shot 62 percent and scored 20.

When Ellington shot 2-for-10 and finished with a season-low five points against Valparaiso, Hansbrough dropped in 23 and Green added 20.

The Tar Heels will be in trouble if two of those three players go cold for a night. The closest instance of that this season is the aforementioned Valparaiso game, when Lawson had six points and Lawson just five. But Green’s 20 points and a surprise 14 points from Will Graves filled the gap. The Tar Heels still won by 32.

2.) Because they found some grit – and a clutch shooter

Five true road tests (at Ohio State, at Kentucky, at Penn, at Rutgers and at Clemson) have hardened the Tar Heels into a unit comfortable playing in any venue. All five road games featured blood-thirsty crowds imploring their teams to topple the No. 1 Tar Heels, and UNC wasn’t able to take command of the game early in any of the five games.

That might be a blessing in disguise. While a truly dominant team can waltz into an opposing arena and mute the crowd within the first 10 minutes, a team that has to battle the crowd throughout the game, still finding a way to win, develops a layer of grit that they can carry into the next road contest.

Nowhere was that more on display than in Sunday’s Tar Heel victory at Clemson. A Tigers team and fan base starving to knock off UNC put on a great performance, but the resolute Tar Heels refused to succumb.

Wins like that lead to gray hair, but more importantly, they build character.

And against Clemson, the win shone the spotlight on Ellington’s emergence. Career-high 36 points aside, it was the two shots he took – one at the end of regulation and one at the end of overtime – that revealed that he might be ready to hit the big-time shot.

His shot at the end of regulation was a forced three-pointer, reminiscent of one he may have taken last season.

His shot at the end of overtime was a set-shot in rhythm that glided through the net, and gave clutch status, at least temporarily, from outside.

Could he miss the next game-ending shot that he takes? Absolutely. But now that he has the taste of a game-winner in his mouth, he’ll more easily be able to find it again.

3. Because Danny Green refuses to cool off

Green, UNC’s new sixth man extraordinaire, must have had quite an offseason. Used mostly as a backup to Reyshawn Terry last year, Green averaged 14 minutes and five points per game. This year, he’s jumped to 21 minutes and 13 points per game – fourth-highest on the team – and been an invaluable scoring boost off the bench.

Most Tar Heel fans keep wondering if Green’s emergence is too good to be true or will be a season-long story, but so far he’s forced his way onto the floor with his scoring knack. There’s a reason UNC’s crunch-time lineup through the end of regulation and most of overtime featured the non-starter Green on the floor.

He hasn’t gotten his points just by chucking up a bunch of shots, either. He’s making 54 percent of his shots, and has the second-highest three-point percentage on the team behind Will Graves. He has also been UNC’s best free-throw shooter, hitting 90 percent of his foul shots.

Those stats might be destined to come down over the haul of the ACC season and as he endures some ice-cold nights. But Green has had a hot hand for two months now, and he won’t want it to stop against N.C. State.