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10:59 a.m. • 2-10-12

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WRAL.com Sports blogger David Glenn

David Glenn's ACC Journal

David Glenn, editor of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, dishes out the latest news on top recruiting prospects and shares his insights on ACC basketball and football for WRAL.com.

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Operation Basketball: Dino Gaudio

Why Basketball Recruiting Matters

Wake Forest pulled an ACC rarity Wednesday, on the first day of the NCAA's fall national signing period for basketball.

The Demon Deacons, led by new coach Dino Gaudio, held a press conference.

That happens at every ACC school every year for football on the first Wednesday in February, which marks the beginning of that sport's annual signing period. In basketball, though, most schools simply issue a press release, and some do nothing at all.

Part of the excitement at Wake reflected the fact that the Demon Deacons signed a three-man basketball class that most recruiting analysts ranked among the top five in the nation. Georgia forward Al-Farouq Aminu likely will be a McDonald's All-American when that team is announced this spring. In-state center Ty Walker might be, too. Georgia center Tony Woods is considered one of the top 75 high school seniors in America.

Adding to the intrigue was the fact that the three players originally had committed to Wake Forest earlier this year, when Skip Prosser was the head coach. After Prosser's tragic death this summer, a smooth transition to Gaudio, Prosser's long-time assistant and close friend, enabled the Demon Deacons to keep the class intact.

"Those three guys, coupled with the players we have in the program now, give us the opportunity to win an ACC championship, to go to the NCAA Tournament, to progress far in the tournament, and hopefully — as was Skip's dream — take this program to the Final Four," Gaudio said.

Perhaps the most logical reason for Wake's celebration — months before the signees will arrive on campus — is the inherent accuracy of basketball recruiting rankings. Yes, there always will be prep All-Americans who become college busts, and there always will be high school "sleepers" who become college stars. Overall, though, basketball recruiting rankings have proven to be impressively accurate.

According to research done by Scout.com and PrepStars.com, two unaffiliated recruiting websites, almost 90 percent of prospects who end their senior seasons ranked in the top 10 of their class nationally ultimately reach the NBA. The success rate is 60 percent for top-25 prospects, and the percentages decrease with each step down the rankings ladder. Similar trends result when the measuring stick in college is All-America status and all-conference status.

Below are the last 10 ACC players of the year, plus the preseason nominee for 2007-08, along with their recruiting status coming out of high school.

2008 preseason — Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina — prep All-American

2007 — Jared Dudley, Boston College — sleeper (outside top 200)

2006 — J.J. Redick, Duke — prep All-American

2005 — J.J. Redick, Duke — prep All-American

2004 — Julius Hodge, N.C. State — prep All-American

2003 — Josh Howard, Wake Forest — top 50 nationally

2002 — Juan Dixon, Maryland — top 125 nationally

2001 (tie) — Shane Battier, Duke — prep All-American

2001 (tie) — Joseph Forte, North Carolina — prep All-American

2000 — Chris Carrawell, Duke — top 50 nationally

1999 — Elton Brand, Duke — prep All-American

1998 — Antawn Jamison, North Carolina — prep All-American

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Mr. Glenn, since I am the only one commenting on this post... I wonder if I might ask again about the fluid Butch Davis situation. I see this as being somewhat of a nuisance with regard to recruiting. I wonder why Davis does not give a definitive "I'm staying"? If Jimmy Sexton is his new agent, at the very least he's going to try to extend his UNC contract. That may be the one thing that fixes up Butch with UNC for the foreseeable future. At worst, Sexton gets Davis a new contract with Arkansas. What are the chances, as I sure you have some past experience in this area, that UNC folks say Davis signed a contract, and they're in no mood to modify until results on the field improve? I'm no big wig, but I do go to the games. I think Davis has instilled a new energy in the program. I hope the generous folks at UNC do not let this one slip away. What do you think/know about this? Thanks A-LOT!!!

Roy Williams and staff did a good job this year. I know they missed on 1 or 2, but they did recruit 3 very good high school players. The 7'00" Zeller must gain weight, but will be very good. Go Heels!!

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