The Wright Decision: NBA Rookie Salary Scale

North Carolina freshman Brandan Wright faces a decision most basketball players can only dream about. He can (1) stay in school, enjoy another year of college life, and play next season with a top contender for the NCAA championship, or (2) turn pro, realize his dream of playing in the NBA, and be assured of more money than most people make in their entire lifetimes.

A 6-9 forward with great hands, an extraordinary wingspan and a wonderful shooting touch near the basket, Wright is a lock to be among the first 10 picks in the first round of the NBA draft if he comes out this year, according to more than a dozen NBA sources.

Under the terms of the NBA's rookie salary scale, the 10th pick in this year's draft will be guaranteed about $3.5 million over two seasons, and he could make as much as $11.3 million over five seasons. The numbers go up from there significantly (see below) for picks in the upper reaches of the first round, but it's difficult to know for sure where in the top 10 Wright will be selected if he declares by the April 29 early entry deadline, in part because some other prominent underclassmen haven't made their intentions known yet.

All first-round picks receive guaranteed money for their first two seasons under the NBA's current rookie salary scale. (Previously, the first three years were guaranteed.) The numbers below apply only to 2007 draft picks, and they gradually increase (in future drafts) year by year through the expiration of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement in 2012.

First Pick: In the best-case scenario, you’ll get paid about $25.5 million over five seasons, with the last three being options exercised by the team that picked you, then you can become a free agent. In the worst-case scenario, you’ll make about $8 million in guaranteed money over two seasons.

Fifth Pick: In the best-case scenario, you’ll get paid about $16.9 million over five seasons, then become a free agent. In the worst-case scenario, you’ll make about $5.3 million in guaranteed money over two seasons.

10th Pick: In the best-case scenario, you’ll get paid about $11.3 million over five seasons, then become a free agent. In the worst-case scenario, you’ll make about $3.5 million in guaranteed money over two seasons.

Notice how quickly the money starts falling here, before it evens out toward the bottom of the first round. This is why some (reputable) advisors tell players it’s worth staying in school if they’re projected at No. 15-30 now but reasonably believe they could be No. 5-10 after another year of college ball. According to some analysts, UNC's Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson — who recently announced their decisions to remain with the Tar Heels for at least one more season —  fit that description this year.

20th Pick: In the best-case scenario, you’ll get paid about $7.8 million over five seasons, then become a free agent. In the worst-case scenario, you’ll make about $2.1 million in guaranteed money over two seasons.

30th Pick: In the best-case scenario, you’ll get paid about $6.5 million over five seasons, then become a free agent. In the worst-case scenario, you’ll make about $1.6 million in guaranteed money over two seasons.

Second Round: Rookie salaries are not automatically guaranteed for second-round picks, although some second-rounders in the past have negotiated for guaranteed money.

2007-08 NBA Rookie Scale

Pick — 1st Year — 2nd Year — 3rd Year* — 4th Year* — 5th Year*

1    3,885.0    4,176.4    4,467.7    26.1%    30.0%
2    3,476.0    3,736.7    3,997.4    26.2%    30.5%
3    3,121.5    3,355.6    3,589.7    26.4%    31.2%
4    2,814.3    3,025.4    3,236.5    26.5%    31.9%
5    2,548.5    2,739.7    2,930.8    26.7%    32.6%
6    2,314.8    2,488.4    2,662.0    26.8%    33.4%
7    2,113.1    2,271.6    2,430.1    27.0%    34.1%
8    1,935.9    2,081.1    2,226.2    27.2%    34.8%
9    1,779.5    1,912.9    2,046.4    27.4%    35.5%
10    1,690.5    1,817.3    1,944.0    27.5%    36.2%
11    1,605.9    1,726.4    1,846.8    32.7%    36.9%
12    1,525.6    1,640.1    1,754.5    37.8%    37.6%
13    1,449.3    1,558.0    1,666.7    42.9%    38.3%
14    1,376.9    1,480.2    1,583.5    48.1%    39.1%
15    1,308.0    1,406.1    1,504.2    53.3%    39.8%
16    1,242.7    1,335.8    1,429.0    53.4%    40.5%
17    1,180.5    1,269.1    1,357.6    53.6%    41.2%
18    1,121.5    1,205.6    1,289.7    53.8%    41.9%
19    1,071.0    1,151.3    1,231.6    54.0%    42.6%
20    1,028.2    1,105.3    1,182.4    54.2%    43.3%
21    987.0    1,061.0    1,135.1    59.3%    44.1%
22    947.5    1,018.6    1,089.7    64.5%    44.8%
23    909.7    977.9    1,046.2    69.7%    45.5%
24    873.2    938.7    1,004.2    74.9%    46.2%
25    838.3    901.2    964.1    80.1%    46.9%
26    810.6    871.3    932.1    80.3%    47.6%
27    787.1    846.2    905.2    80.4%    48.3%
28    782.3    841.0    899.7    80.5%    49.0%
29    776.6    834.9    893.1    80.5%    50.0%
30    771.0    828.8    886.6    80.5%    50.0%

* — Third, fourth and fifth years are team options. Fourth- and fifth-year numbers are set at specified percentages over the previous year's salary.

NOTE: Multiply numbers shown in first three columns by 1,000 for actual salaries.