The question is less what happened to Duke than what happens now for Duke.

No one who watched the Blue Devils this season, particularly recently, was surprised by their NCAA elimination at the hands of Virginia Commonwealth. The Devils displayed the strengths and especially the weaknesses that caused their season to devolve from an 18-3 start to a 21-11 finish: fumbled and hurried passes, lack of quickness in the backcourt, repeated occasions when opposing wing shooters were left untended while defenders clotted the lane, key missed free throws, the lack of a defined leader or reliable playmaker.

Thus Duke ended 2007 with four straight losses, and was eliminated in the first round of the NCAAs for the first time since 1996. That was the year coach Mike Krzyzewski fashioned what he called his “bridge” team, featuring current Duke assistants Chris Collins and Steve Wojciechowski, and escaped the last-place debacle of 1995.

Between 1986 and 1994 Duke had gone to seven Final Fours, an unmatched run in the modern game, and won consecutive NCAA titles in 1991 and 1992. Then Krzyzewski was sidelined by injury in January 1995, the team plummeted to last place, and rebuilding began. What followed was an era in which Duke went to a mere  three Final Fours and won a single NCAA title, but dominated the ACC regular season and ACC Tournament in unprecedented fashion and ran off nine consecutive appearances in the NCAA’s Sweet 16.

That era appears to be over too, punctuated by four defeats, the worst concluding losing streak at Duke since 1977, predating Krzyzewski’s arrival in Durham.

Ironically, the TV color commentator during the VCU loss was Bob Wenzel, an assistant to Duke head coach Bill Foster in ’77, which the last-place Blue Devils ended with five losses in a row. The next year Duke shocked most everyone by advancing to the national championship game, fueled by guard Jim Spanarkel and center Mike Gminski (two more announcers on this year’s NCAA broadcasts) and a pair of freshman, Gene Banks and Kenny Dennard.

No one could have predicted the success of 1978, particularly given the reliance on new players. Nor can anyone predict the level of success in 2008, although many will try.

Holdover players will improve, evolve, digress. There will be new players on the Duke roster. Even a squad lacking seniors might see player attrition, either leaps to the NBA or losses to transfer. Leaving Duke for the pros or for greener and perhaps more tranquil pastures is rather common during Krzyzewski’s tenure. Imagine how the Devils might have benefited this season from the post presence of athletic, 6-10 Eric Boateng, who transferred in 2006 following his freshman year to play for Herb Sendek at Arizona State.

Certainly Krzyzewski has proven he can conjure success. But, there are several factors at work now that will make his task more difficult than it was in the mid-nineties.

For one thing, through 1998 Duke never lost a player early to the NBA. Meanwhile neighboring North Carolina endured early departures from stars Bob McAdoo (1972), James Worthy (1982), Michael Jordan (1984), J.R. Reid (1989), Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace (1995), and Jeff McInnis (1996).

Then, too, Duke essentially shared top billing with the Tar Heels well into the 1990s. Upon Krzyzewski’s return from exhaustion the Devils became dominators in the much-celebrated rivalry. Now that dominance has waned, and Duke confronts a North Carolina program reaching, if not surpassing, peaks it last scaled in the late 1990s – an ACC Tournament title, two ACC first place finishes and two No. 1 NCAA seeds in a three-year span.

This reawakened ascendancy at Chapel Hill presents a different dynamic than Krzyzewski faced in 1997, the last year of Dean Smith’s career.

Finally, there was the message implicit in the press room cheer at Winston-Salem’s Joel Coliseum when Duke lost to VCU.

The reaction was natural after watching an exciting game yield an improbable result. However, coming as it did from many of the same people who cover sports on a regular basis in central North Carolina, the numerous expressions of pleasure bespoke more, so much more a long-time Carolina adherent wondered if the Heels were so disliked when they were on top.

In recent years, Duke insiders either complained about or shrugged off a sense of being hated, even as outsiders thought Duke got all the breaks, particularly from officials. Just last year ESPN devoted plenty of air time to officiating calls, or the lack of calls, that seemed to benefit Duke.

Clearly, the Blue Devils and Krzyzewski were depicted more favorably the last time the program rebounded from significant adversity. Current burdens and expectations are far different, and less forgiving.

Duke’s disappointment in 2007 could lead to intensified hunger and humility, and with them a quick return to prominence. But the transformation promises to be more difficult this time around.