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11:09 a.m. • 2-12-12

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WRAL.com Sports blogger David Glenn

David Glenn's ACC Journal

David Glenn, editor of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, dishes out the latest news on top recruiting prospects and shares his insights on ACC basketball and football for WRAL.com.

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ACC's Magical 8-8 Mark Will Be Tested

Some ACC fans can't stand the idea of rooting for one of their conference opponents under any circumstances. But if there's one time of year to make an exception, this is it.

The biggest source of revenue in all of college athletics is the NCAA men's basketball tournament. How the money is divided is a bit complicated, but suffice it to say that in the ACC (where almost all "outside" revenue is divided equally) YOUR favorite school makes more money when more ACC teams get NCAA invitations. YOUR favorite school also adds to its financial haul when ACC teams do well in the NCAA Tournament once they're there, even if YOUR favorite team is on the couch with a box of popcorn during March Madness, like so many others.

With that in mind, consider these facts about how the NCAA selection committee has treated ACC teams of various conference records over the past 21 seasons, or since the NCAA adopted the 64-team (now 65-team) format in 1985.

ACC Records -- Bids/Teams -- % NCAA Bids
16-0, 14-0 -- 2/2 -- 100%
15-1 -- 3/3 -- 100%
14-2, 12-2 -- 4/4 -- 100%
13-3, 12-4, 11-3, 11-5, 10-4, 10-6, 9-5 -- 50/50 -- 100%
8-6, 9-7 -- 21/22 -- 95.5%
8-8, 7-7 -- 14/17 -- 82.4%
7-9, 6-8 -- 12/23 -- 52.2%
6-10, 5-9 -- 1/19 -- 5.3%
5-11, 4-10 or worse -- 44 -- 0%

Obviously, getting to 8-8 in the ACC has been a benchmark. In fact, significantly more .500 teams in the ACC have received NCAA Tournament bids than similarly situated teams in other major conferences, a fact that remains a sore spot with many coaches in other parts of the country.

Virginia Tech (15-13, 8-8 on Selection Sunday in 2005) was left out of the NCAA Tournament last year, but no 15-win team ever has received an at-large bid. When Virginia was left out after posting an 8-8 record in 1992, the Cavaliers proved a point by winning the NIT championship. In 1995, an 8-8 Georgia Tech team declined an NIT bid after being spurned by the NCAA committee.

Moving forward, it's important to remember that the rules of thumb above will be tested -- and likely will change -- in the post-expansion era. The ACC no longer has a round-robin format (where everyone played everyone twice) in the regular season, and that fact itself has a water-down effect on league records. In addition, while the ACC remains one of the top three conferences in America according to all of the power rankings, it's certainly down relative to its history, which is unmatched over the last five, 10 or 25 years.

With 16 days remaining until Selection Sunday, the ACC has four teams (Duke, UNC, NCSU, BC) on safe ground. After that, though, four more teams find themselves in precarious positions.

Florida State (17-7, 7-6), Virginia (14-10, 7-6), Miami (15-12, 7-7) and Maryland (16-10, 6-7) know that a 9-7 ACC record would give them a good chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They also know that 8-8 would leave them crossing their fingers through ACC Tournament weekend. The NCAA selection committee will consider those teams' entire bodies of work, of course, not just the league records. But history, via the numbers above, can be telling.

A fan of one of the Triangle schools may not care one way or the other about those four teams. But remember, more bids for the ACC means more money for YOUR favorite school, too.
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