It's March now, so get Mad. One of the most common symptoms of "March
Madness" is a compelling need to guess JUST WHERE your favorite team will be
seeded in the NCAA Tournament.

With that in mind, I felt like taking a look at the various tournament
projections available online. In no time flat, I found 15 different websites
with NCAA bracket prognostications. And since more data is better in making
predictions (and also since I was having trouble sleeping at the time), I
decided to break down their predictions -- and hopefully draw a few
conclusions.

So let's get started: Of the 15 sites, 10 broke the brackets into regionals
and opening round locations. The other five didn't bother to guess where the
first two rounds would be played, but they did seed the teams by region.
I've broken things down by team -- the numbers in parentheses indicate how
many sites project the preceding scenario. Here goes...

DUKE (not exactly a shock here)
SEEDING/REGION
#1-ATLANTA (14/15)
#1-DC (1/15)
--
1ST/2ND ROUND LOCATION
DUKE OPENING IN GREENSBORO (10/10)

Duke is almost universally accepted as the #1 seed in the Atlanta region,
starting their run in Greensboro. The only deviation to this? One site has
them in the DC region instead of Atlanta. Bottom line? You'll have no drama
during the selection show if you're a Duke fan.

NORTH CAROLINA (a bit more gray area here)
SEEDING
#3 (8/15)
#4 (7/15)
--
REGION
OAKLAND (3/15)
DC (9/15)
MINNEAPOLIS (3/15)
--
1ST/2ND ROUND LOCATION
UNC OPENING IN JACKSONVILLE (5/10)
UNC OPENING IN GREENSBORO (4/10)
UNC OPENING IN SALT LAKE CITY (1/10)

State and Carolina pose much more challenging questions. Note the near 50-50
split between 3-seed and 4-seed projections for UNC. I take that to mean
that - as of now - Carolina would be the lowest of the #3 seeds. They can
either play their way up - or down - but they're not a solid three as of
yet.

I also find it interesting that not a single site has the Heels in the
Atlanta region. Frankly, I think Duke's presence there simply eliminates UNC
from consideration in most minds. No one wants to draw up a bracket that has
Duke and Carolina meeting anywhere OTHER than the Final Four.

Now for the opening round sites... As a 3-4 seed, Carolina should be a
"protected" seed given the most desirable location available for its fan
base. But, here's where the opinions are divided. Greensboro would be that
location -- hands down -- but Duke will already have one of the pods locked
up, and the other could go to Tennessee. Yes, Tennessee... The Volunteers
project as a higher seed than Carolina in most every bracket, and Greensboro
is the regional site closest to Knoxville. The next logical location would
be Jacksonville, hence the five brackets placing UNC there. I don't know
what the folks at Foxsports.com were thinking when they picked Salt Lake
City. Nice town. Great view of the mountains. But it makes no sense.


NC STATE (The Pack's trending downward)
SEEDING
#5 (5/15)
#6 (9/15)
#7 (1/15)
--
REGION
ATLANTA (4/15)
OAKLAND (8/15)
DC (2/15)
MINNEAPOLIS (1/15)
--
1ST/2ND ROUND LOCATION
NCSU OPENING IN AUBURN HILLS (3/10)
NCSU OPENING IN JACKSONVILLE (2/10)
NCSU OPENING IN SAN DIEGO (3/10)
NCSU OPENING IN DAYTON (2/10)

Now for the most puzzling question of all: Where does NC State fit in to
this equation? Clearly, nobody has a handle on this. A couple of weeks ago,
I'd have thought State opening up in Greensboro (as no lower than a 4 seed)
was a lock. Now, it's pretty doggone unlocked.

We'll drop the lone 7-seed projection, and assume that State's on the
dividing line between a 6-seed and 5-seed. The scales seem to be tilting
toward six right now. That's what the Pack's recent skid has cost them, a
chance to get a "protected" seeding. As a 5-or-6 seed, State will be at the
mercy of the 3-or-4 seed in their bracket. THAT team will get the
preferential treatment when the regional sites are doled out, and the
opinions are all over the place.

It may be due to the perception of a downward trend, but a majority of sites
place State in the Oakland region. I see this as a perception of weakness --
sort of like selling a stock that's dropping.

Three sites even have the Pack OPENING out west (probably against UCLA), two
have them going south to Jacksonville (probably their best case scenario
right now), and the others have State either in Dayton or Auburn Hills (Pitt
and Illinois are the teams grouped with State in these brackets).

To average things out, it looks like Duke's the #1 in Atlanta with an
opening weekend at the Greensboro Coliseum. Carolina looks like a 3/4 seed
in DC, probably by way of Florida. And State looks like a 6 seed in need of
a travel agent.

Of course, all of these projections mean diddly right now, and they could
swing wildly in the next week-and-a-half. That's why these are merely
"projections."

-- Ken Medlin