Snow in March...is it rare?

For the last week or so, we've all been watching a projected low pressure system that at one time held some potential for producing measurable snowfall across north central and northeastern parts of our state.

The track gradually shifted north a ways as the system moved into and across the U.S., and new observations became available with which to make further forecasts.

Of course, it now appears there will be a major snowstorm for central and northern Virginia, with 10 to 20 inches possible in some places there (where the red and pink colors are shown in the model-projected snow cover map above) and some decent snow for parts of the NC mountains.

Locally, we should see just some periods of light rain, a few pockets of light snow, and some drizzle, with most precipitation shifting north and northeast of the Triangle by midday, and little if any snow accumulation, with brighter skies and eventually warming temperatures on tap for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

When we look at our snow potential for March overall, though, it is a transition period, being the month that begins "meteorological spring" on the first of the month, and of course the more traditional "astronomical spring" with the passage of the vernal equinox on March 20.

Our chance of snow overall drops off rapidly going into March, but it remains a month in which an occasional storm is quite capable of producing significant snow here.

For some quick history, I took a scan through the Southeastern Regional Climate Center's database of historical observations for the Raleigh-Durham airport and found that out of 67 years in the record, at least one day in March yielded an inch or more of snowfall in 12 different years.

Most of the 12 brought just one day with that threshold reached, but in 1962, there were 3 days that brought 1 inch or more of snow, and there were two such days in 1960 and 1980.

The top three March periods for total snowfall at RDU were 1960 (14.0 inches), 1980 (11.1 inches - I remember getting 19 inches from that storm where I grew up in Rocky Mount!), and 9.3 inches in March of 1969.

Of course, snow and ice can be highly variable over a short distance, so this represents a pretty limited snapshot of March snow for the area as a whole.

If you're interested in seeing a more broadly-based overview of past wintry events in March, or any other selected time frame, there is a {[a href="external_link-1"}}nice tool{{/a}} for doing that on the web site of the State Climate Center of NC, and I've included a link here to their interactive "Winter Storm Database."