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Early Storm May Be Start to Rough Hurricane Season

Posted May 9, 2007
Updated May 11, 2007

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— It’s only May, but the year’s first named storm is in the Atlantic. Weather experts said North Carolina could be in for a bumpy ride this hurricane season.

When it comes to predicting hurricanes, North Carolina State University professor Lian Xie and his team have a believable track record. Last year, they accurately predicted a quieter than normal season, but this year, they've kicked it up a notch.

“Our forecast points to an activity that is going to be anywhere between 30 to 50 percent above average,” Xie said.

Xie said the warm water conditions that have fueled Subtropical Storm Andrea could feed into an active hurricane season. He said that based on his research, Andrea was an early start to the 12 to 13 named storms his team predicts will form in the Atlantic this year.

“Our coastal waters are very favorable for storm development and that may continue,” Xie said. “You can expect that will continue into the hurricane season.”

Xie said weather predictors should add one to the initial predictions, since Andrea falls outside the traditional June 1 to Nov. 30 period of hurricane season.

WRAL Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel was out front on Andrea, noticing last week that there were indications of a big storm brewing.

“It's not unprecedented, but it's unusual,” Fishel said.

Fishel said it doesn't appear Andrea will turn into a bigger storm. He also said he believes it doesn't necessarily mean North Carolina and its coastline are in for a beating this hurricane season.

“We could have an active year as a whole in terms of the big picture, but the number of storms that come to North Carolina may or may not be that great,” he said.

Fishel and Xie agreed if it were August, the storm would have gotten much stronger before it made landfall.

30 Comments

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  • nc lover May 10, 2007

    There's a Hurricane A Comon! Someday - LOL

  • nc lover May 10, 2007

    Hank5049 - Ok I'll bite. It's Bush's Fault. LOL

  • nc lover May 10, 2007

    Keep your Batteries in the Refrigerator. They last longer then in a cubbord.

  • FonziBeWithYou May 10, 2007

    Well, guess we all better start stocking up on Spam, Beanie Weenies, batteries, and water.

  • Thornedwolf May 10, 2007

    Hey Bigguns, I know you were refearing to some one else but just incase your associating me with others, note that I mentioned that it was reported up until mid season, Not that the NCSU changed the predictions. Just that WRAL and other News stations prefear to give us there take on predictions, what ever scares is news to print.

  • methinks May 10, 2007

    Thank you. Can you tell weather isn't my thing? :}

  • capefearwx May 10, 2007

    methinks...actually, in 1996 (the Fran year), the first storm did not form until June 17th, over 2 weeks into the "official" season. In 2003, Tropical Storm Ana was classified as such on April 20th, over a month before the "official" start to the season. Pre-season storms are unusual, but not unprecedented. And Andrea is not particularly remarkable, either...it's not too well organized and is forecast to weaken (possibly below TS strength) even before it hits land. As for the rest of the season, we will have to wait and see...remember that it's the storms that make landfall that really matter, and predicting how many storms will actually affect land is pretty difficult.

  • Malcontent May 10, 2007

    Tell it like it is, A_Patriot! LOL

  • methinks May 10, 2007

    If memory serves me right, the last time we had a storm form this early was the year Fran hit. Anybody have any data?

  • unc4ever May 10, 2007

    Whether it happens or not, its always good to be prepared. Dont mess around like I did before Fran hit. Lost power for a week, had no perishable foods, no running water,no candles, no batteries, no gas in my car and I could go on.... but my point is it may not happen again for a long time, but it COULD happen again. These items are relatively inexpensive and if you dont need them for hurricane season, you will still have them for the winter months.

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