It's the beginning of the end

At least according to one senior U.S. military officer in Iraq, the end is in sight. This week, we are getting word that the United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on a time line for the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Iraq.

Although the tentative agreement would still require approval from President Bush and the Iraqi Parliament and government, there does seem to be more clarity to an end date than we have seen previously. Clearly, the situation on the ground will always have an impact, but we are now seeing a sense that the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Army will soon be able to provide their own security for much of the country and will rely less and less on the coalition forces.

The tentative agreement as reported by the media would have Iraqis responsible for security in all of the major cities by the summer of 2009. It also calls for the withdrawal of nearly all U.S. forces by the end of 2011. This clearly indicates some significant improvements in the conflict since the so-called “surge” of early 2007. The additional U.S. ground forces allowed for many more U.S. trainers to work with, and mature, the Iraqi Army forces. While there is still a long way to go, and of course, the enemy has a vote – as it always does – the situation in Iraq is incredibly better than 18 months ago.

One goal of the surge was to provide the opportunity for the Iraqi government to coalesce, mature, improve living conditions and the economy and also conduct provincial elections. And while there is improvement in most of these areas, provincial election progress has been stymied. As in any developing nation, there is also some widespread corruption that the government needs to get a handle on.

On the casualty front, July witnessed the lowest monthly number of U.S. casualties – 13 – since the start of the war over five years ago. There has also been a very significant decrease in Iraqi civilian and Iraqi Army casualties over the past several months. Again, while there is cause for optimism, there is also the concern that the recent improvements could see some backsliding downstream.

There is one military support function that will not permit a full and complete pullout of U.S. forces by late 2011, in my mind. The Iraqi Army will depend on U.S. air power well beyond the pull out of the majority of our ground forces. While a fledgling Iraqi Air Force is currently flying some reconnaissance and transport sorties, they do not have, and will not have for several years, the strike capabilities resident in our Army and Air Force that provide the cover and close air support for Iraqi Army units today.

Just as it takes us several years to train combat-ready pilots and crews, so will it take several years for the Iraqis to do so. It will be interesting in the next few years to see just how much the unmanned aerial vehicles become a part of the Iraqi Air Force. This could be a far cheaper and faster road to an Iraqi Air Force strike force.

And so, in Iraq, there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. We could see tens of thousands of our men and women leave Iraq by this time next year. That is the good news. Unfortunately, we may see the need for many more U.S. troops to deploy to Afghanistan.

And then, as we have seen this month, the world is not a safe place and free from other wars. While much of the world was focused on the summer Olympics in Beijing, Russia invaded a sovereign and democratic Georgia on their southern flank. And in spite of international pressure from the European Union and NATO, they have not carried out their withdrawal in accordance with an agreement they signed. This saga does not bode well for the future.