Could it happen again?

Could it happen again? A brief review of history and the origins of World War I, as well as the Soviet incursions into East European countries in the 1950s and '60s, contains some ominous signs in the 21st century. As I write this column, Russia is “offensively” –with a couple of meanings here – engaged in an attack, looting, destruction and occupation of the small, neighboring, democratic country of Georgia.

For the past five years, Georgia has been a growing democratic nation fully aligned with the West and seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. As one of the former 15 republics which made up the Soviet Union, Georgia lies geographically adjacent to the large Russian Bear to the west and north. One of Georgia’s provinces, South Ossetia, is more inclined to Russian than Georgian rule. South Ossetia has a large Russian ethnic population and has been basically self-governing for the past decade and has refused to accept Georgia’s sovereignty over them.

Earlier this month, local rebels from South Ossetia and another pro-Russian province, Abkhazia, have engaged in armed conflict with Georgia’s military, which initiated warnings to the Georgian government from the U.S. and others not to provide Russia with any provocation or excuse to exercise their overwhelming military might. A solid rationale or not, Russia did invade a small sovereign nation and has consequently earned the wrath of our country and much of the Western world.

President Bush, speaking from the Rose Garden, demanded that Russia cease fire and withdraw their forces. Although a ceasefire had been agreed to, the Russians were apparently not abiding by their agreement and were continuing to advance toward the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Bush has directed Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to travel to Paris to consult with the rotating head of the European Union, Nicolas Sarkozy, en route to Tbilisi to try to secure a peaceful settlement to this increasingly dangerous situation.

President Bush has also directed our military to transport humanitarian aid, including medical supplies, to Georgia. As he spoke there was already C-17 airlift aircraft en route to this troubled nation. Earlier this week, 16 USAF C-17 aircraft had returned the 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq, where they were fighting alongside U.S. and coalition forces.

Why, other than for humanitarian reasons, should we really care what happens in a small foreign country like Georgia? For one, Georgia is an independent, democratic and sovereign government. They are no match for the large Russian army and air force.
Georgia has aligned itself with the U.S. and Europe and has been seeking membership in NATO as I mentioned above.

Interestingly, had they been a NATO member, Russian’s aggression would have sparked an immediate military response from the NATO countries, as Article 5 of the treaty calls for “an attack against one is an attack against all” member countries. This article has been exercised only one time in the 60 years of NATO – Sept. 12, 2001, following the horrific attacks of 9/11.

Need I mention that another major concern is that Russia is a major supplier of oil to the world, and importantly, their pipeline to Europe runs through Georgia?

This far-off conflict in another remote region of the world has immense impact on the world scene. One indicator of the seriousness is that our House of Representatives leadership, in a rare sign of unity and nonpartisanship, has condemned Russia’s actions.

And now back to the opening question: Could it happen again? It was seemingly an isolated skirmish and an assassination of a national leader that most believe was the trigger mechanism for World War I. More recently, many of us can remember the Soviet incursions into Hungary and the former Czechoslovakia a few decades ago. Russia’s attack on Georgia is eerily familiar. This situation must be resolved peacefully and soon.