New model could improve hurricane forecasting

Posted October 31, 2012
Updated November 1, 2012

— Researchers at North Carolina State University said they have developed a more accurate way to predict seasonal hurricane activity.

Right now, forecasters use historical data to predict how many hurricanes may form in a year. But N.C. State professors Nagiza Samatova and Fredrick Semazzi said their new model uses more variables and is 15 percent more accurate than current techniques.

The new model, which is described in a paper published last month in an academic journal, could help emergency managers make better decisions each year, the professors said.

“This approach should give policymakers more reliable information than current state-of-the-art techniques,” Samatova said. “This will hopefully give them more confidence in planning for the hurricane season.”

Researchers from several universities worked on the project, which was funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy.


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  • Shadow666 Nov 1, 2012

    Will it actually stop the hurricanes? If not, kinda pointless...

    Here's my forecast model for next season...sometime between June and December, there will be a hurricane.

  • jcthai Nov 1, 2012

    Jeeez, who's wearing the Tin Hat? The people who pay attention to science or the head-in-the-sand deniers?

  • MzLadySmiling Oct 31, 2012

    glad to see progress is being made...
    15% more accuracy is better in my book...
    and I am thankful for the men and women
    who work to make this possible....
    Great Job !

  • whatelseisnew Oct 31, 2012

    15 percent more accurate means it still is more or less a SWAG. I have heard that the Warmers at back at it. Blaming Sandy on warming. Nothing can be done with the tin foil hat people, just let em rant. In the meantime the earth will continue on its way.