Hurricanes

NCSU researchers predict relatively quiet hurricane season

Posted April 16, 2014

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— Researchers at North Carolina State University said Wednesday that they expect the 2014 hurricane season to be relatively quiet when compared to the last 20 years.

A team led by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and statistics professor Montserrat Fuentes forecasts eight to 11 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

That number is slightly lower than the 63-year (1950-2013) average of 10.8 named storms.

N.C. State's researchers said four to six storms may become hurricanes, and one to three may become major hurricanes.

In the Gulf of Mexico specifically, they predict three to four named storms with one to two becoming hurricanes. In the Caribbean, forecasters expect three to five tropical storms would form, with one to two becoming hurricanes.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

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  • Mannin Black Apr 16, 2014

    Last couple of years they predicted more than usual and didn't have any major impacts. Winter was supposed to be warmer and drier. The lesson of this is, expect the opposite of what they are predicting.

  • dbop90 Apr 16, 2014

    Watch out everyone.....this will mean that we will actually have a rough hurricane season....bunker down folks!

  • TarHeelBrit Apr 16, 2014

    One thing I've learned from Mother Nature is that we can predict a certain amount but she does like to throw a curve ball our way just to remind us who's boss. I for one won't be complacent I'm going to check my supplies and plans anyway, just in case.

  • zwamus Apr 16, 2014

    The same guys also predict global warming, global cooling, what the ground hog will see and how far is up. Fire these guys and get a chicken to play Old MacDonald on a kids piano, if the last note ends on........ then there will be
    fewer hurricanes. Wild guesses are the stock and trade of weather guru's predictions and a PhD title makes it true.

  • Joseph Smith Apr 16, 2014

    Fewer hurricanes fewer tornadoes and cooler weather. I knew global warming was just another scam.

  • wmcmahon1 Apr 16, 2014

    And how much do these experts get paid to get forecasts grossly wrong every year?
    Why do this forecasting every year?

  • Dana McCall Apr 16, 2014

    Uh oh.

  • sweetlyght Apr 16, 2014

    Lets all book a cruise!

  • rduwxboy Apr 16, 2014

    "Why do this forecasting every year?" -WMCMAHON1

    Can you imagine the amount of money and lives that could be saved with accurate and reliable forecast models? Mind you, weather is not an exact science, everything is variable, and the research into is relatively new. Weather satellites were only up in the 1960's - can you fathom if we wouldn't know if a hurricane was about to hit our coast now? Studies are just learning about the correlation between even how temperatures in the Pacific affect the Atlantic, etc... This is very important research for many reasons. Of course, most people only think of the weather as looking out the window to bring an umbrella- versus the larger scope.

  • paradiselost Apr 16, 2014

    It only takes one for all of us to have a bad day.

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