NCSU researchers predict relatively quiet hurricane season
Posted April 16, 2014
Raleigh, N.C. — Researchers at North Carolina State University said Wednesday that they expect the 2014 hurricane season to be relatively quiet when compared to the last 20 years.
A team led by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and statistics professor Montserrat Fuentes forecasts eight to 11 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
That number is slightly lower than the 63-year (1950-2013) average of 10.8 named storms.
N.C. State's researchers said four to six storms may become hurricanes, and one to three may become major hurricanes.
In the Gulf of Mexico specifically, they predict three to four named storms with one to two becoming hurricanes. In the Caribbean, forecasters expect three to five tropical storms would form, with one to two becoming hurricanes.
Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.