NCSU researchers predict relatively quiet hurricane season

Posted April 16, 2014

— Researchers at North Carolina State University said Wednesday that they expect the 2014 hurricane season to be relatively quiet when compared to the last 20 years.

A team led by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and statistics professor Montserrat Fuentes forecasts eight to 11 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

That number is slightly lower than the 63-year (1950-2013) average of 10.8 named storms.

N.C. State's researchers said four to six storms may become hurricanes, and one to three may become major hurricanes.

In the Gulf of Mexico specifically, they predict three to four named storms with one to two becoming hurricanes. In the Caribbean, forecasters expect three to five tropical storms would form, with one to two becoming hurricanes.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.


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  • Allen Reeves Apr 16, 2014
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    In other words, prep for a season full of hurricanes.

  • Ty Shrake Apr 16, 2014
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    View quoted thread

    My background is in Physics. I understand the scientific method. I was trained in it and I've used it many times.

    I'm not the only person trained in science that thinks that Man Made GW is questionable. That doesn't make me a 'flat earther'. My first question to anyone making that accusation is this:

    Why didn't any of the current climate models used by those supported by the IPCC predict the fact that average global temperatures would NOT increase for the last 17 years?

    I'm not a 'denier'... these models have some utility, as most models do. But they did NOT predict this leveling off period and presumably they should have been able to do that.

    The name calling by the 'believers' on this issue cheapens this issue and is meant to stifle reasonable dissent. It's not science. It's politics.

  • same ole story Apr 16, 2014

    Since they had no clue about the last 5 seasons why not try something new. Like actual research....

  • Olenc Native Apr 16, 2014
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    If you went to 100 doctors, and 98 said you had cancer, 2 said they didn't know, and one said he didn't think so, what would you do?

    Form Image

  • Olenc Native Apr 16, 2014
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    Science deniers = flat earthers

  • Bill Brasky Apr 16, 2014

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    Wood Chipper...Whats your scientific background in? Sorry, but I'll believe the majority of scientists far before I believe a WRAL commenter.

  • Maurice Pentico Jr. Apr 16, 2014
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    A quiet hurricane season... due no doubt to all this global warming stuff. Because we all know, no matter WHAT the weather does... it is due to global warming... err, climate change.

  • Olenc Native Apr 16, 2014
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    You know very few spots have been cooler. You just live in one of them. And your arrogant enough to assume if it's cold here, it must be cold everywhere!

  • Bill Brasky Apr 16, 2014

    Some on here should explain their points to actual scientists, I'm sure doing their lifetime of studying climate change they never took into account any of your

    Those who actually read what scientists have to say would already know that the Earth is going through a normal warming cycle that is accelerated by man.

  • mike275132 Apr 16, 2014

    My Magic Eight Ball says there will be 1234567890 Storms with 987654321 becoming Hurricanes.

    Last year was supposed to a Higher than normal year for tropical activity......

    Oh and I'm sure It's all caused by "Global Cooling"