Hurricanes

NCSU researchers predict active hurricane season

Posted April 15, 2013

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— Researchers at North Carolina State University said Monday that they expect an above-average hurricane season for 2013.

A team led by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and statistics professor Montserrat Fuentes forecasts 13 to 17 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. That is higher than the average of 10.8 named storms, dating to 1950.

Of the named storms in 2013, seven to 10 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and three to six may become Category 3 or stronger hurricanes, the researchers said.

In the Gulf alone, they predict three to five named storms forming, of which one to two will become hurricanes.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form and where they might make landfall.

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  • Good Bye WRAL Apr 16, 2013

    If by active they mean there'll be at least a hurricane (one), then their predictions are accurate. hmmm.....

  • Rocknhorse Apr 16, 2013

    With all due respect, don't they "predict an active hurricane season" EVERY year. I know, I know. If they say it every year, one year, they'll be right.

  • delilahk2000 Apr 16, 2013

    THAT IS ALL IT IS IS JUST A PREDITION,,,,,,,THEY DI THIS A FEW YEARS BACK AND WHAT HAPPENED NOTHING...AS USUAL....MAYBE THIS WILL GET POSTED.....

  • birkie74693 Apr 16, 2013

    It's just AMAZING that there are still a few people so blinded by hate and right-wing poison that they pretend this isn't a VERY serious issue we MUST deal with. Keep laughing and quoting tea party radio hosts when tropical diseases are endemic and corn and wheat won't grow in the American midwest.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/climate-change-seen-leaving-arctic-ice-free-by-2050.html

    The Arctic has experienced rapid loss of thick, multi-year sea ice in the past 12 years, and the amount was less than half the average of 1979-2000 last September, according to the researchers.
    The study is one of a series in recent months pointing to immediate impacts of warming temperatures on the Earth. Last year was one of the world’s 10 warmest on record going back to 1880, the 36th consecutive year to exceed the 20th-century average of 57 degrees Fahrenheit, according to a separate NOAA report in January. Last year was the warmest in the U.S. since records began in 1895.

  • Good Bye WRAL Apr 16, 2013

    "Didn't they say the same thing last year and it was below normal activity?"

    Yep, and the year before. I don't know why this 'information' gets published each year, other than it's likely funded by grants and it must be published so they can get more tax money to announce what they still don't know next year, and the next and the next. Using astrology to predict hurricane frequency would likely produce the same or better accuracy.

    It would be better to figure out the methodology for the predictions (with grants) but not start publishing until they can demonstrate a good degree of accuracy. They are Not there yet.

  • Capt Mercury Apr 16, 2013

    It is a bit scary how much ignorance is displayed when articles like this show up. China, India, and other nations who are just now discovering the benefits of science will certainly end up eating our lunch when all of these anti-science commerce junkies are running the USA. And with our current money-driven election system, they certainly will be running things eventually. Oh well, it's been a nice 50 year run for the USA since WWII.

  • jgilchr Apr 16, 2013

    LOL go on and keep living in your science denial dreamworlds manufactured by the far right.

  • jgilchr Apr 16, 2013

    Kermit no there were 19 storms last season, 10 hurricanes, 2 were category 3 or higher. 19 storms is above the average of 12.1 per season and 10 hurricanes is well above the average of around 5.9 per season. Just because they don't hit land doesn't mean they don't exist. These forecasts do not suggest how many will make landfall.

  • kermit60 Apr 16, 2013

    Didn't they say the same thing last year and it was below normal activity?

  • BuglessDuster Apr 16, 2013

    Every year we get the same predictions and no one calls forecasters out on how wrong they were at the end of hurricane season.

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