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NC could catch glimpse of Chinese satellite as it falls to earth

This prediction comes from Aerospace Corporation, a consultant to each of the federal agencies with satellites on orbit including the United States Military, NASA, NOAA and the National Reconnaissance Office.

Posted Updated
Tiangong-1
By
Tony Rice
, WRAL contributor/NASA Ambassador
RALEIGH, N.C. — At 6 p.m. Saturday, Tiangong-1 was predicted to enter the Earth’s atmosphere sometime between Sunday at 3 p.m. and Monday at 2 a.m.

At 1 p.m. on Sunday, Predictions for Tiangong-1's final moments narrowed to sometime between 6:18 p.m. and 10:18 p.m.

The Tiangong-1 space station is expected to deorbit somewhere along these lines. Yellow is the first half of the window, green the latter half.  The red line was the current position around 1 pm EDT. (Source: Aerospace Corp)

Based on those timings and what we know about the orbit, that places the deorbit over the South Pacific, but the window of uncertainty could bring it over the southern tip of South America, Central Africa, the Middle East and much of China.

If this prediction holds out, and they generally do, this will not be visible from North America. Forecasts from the European Space Agency, US Strategic Command, and the Aerospace Corporation closely resemble the path above.

Because we know when it might enter, we also know where it might enter.

As station loses altitude, the window of uncertainty has not only been narrowing, but the center of that window has been moving a little later.

This is likely because of lower than expected solar activity is creating a smoother ride for Tiangong-1 as it flies through the outer reaches of the atmosphere.

Earlier predictions had removed North America completely from areas where the station will overfly, but as the window moves later, those final orbits move west.

Source: Aerospace Corp

This has created a small chance we could see a light show late Sunday night here in North Carolina. Most of the station is expected to burn up in the atmosphere, but some material could make it to the ground.

If you beat the odds, and not only see it burning up in the atmosphere, but come across debris that made it to the ground, don’t touch it. Contact your local authorities. Then go buy a Powerball ticket because those odds are far better than what you experienced.

A more precise estimate of when and where Tiangong-1's final moments will be should come about an hour before it happens.

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