Political News

How AP rates the presidential race and the Road to 270

Posted September 12

Data-driven map shows the latest AP election analysis in the 2016 candidate race for the White House; 3c x 6 inches; 146 mm x 152 mm;

— The presidential race may be tightening nationally, but Hillary Clinton still has the edge in the states she'll need to win in November — including one previously rated as a toss-up by The Associated Press.

A survey released Thursday by the University of New Hampshire and WMUR found Clinton holding a nine-point lead there, confirming other polls giving her an advantage in the state.

The AP this week moves that race to leaning Democratic. Clinton now has an advantage in states with enough electoral votes to put her over the top in November.

That's according to an AP analysis of the map as it stands today. The analysis considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.

The race, of course, could change in the roughly two months remaining Election Day. Republican Donald Trump has pulled closer in both national and some state polls in the past week.

In Pennsylvania, for example, polls have consistently shown a large advantage for Clinton. But a survey released Thursday by Quinnipiac University suggests her advantage may be slightly narrower; that poll found her ahead by 5 percentage points.

A look at where the race stands, state by state:

SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maine 2nd District, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.

TOSS-UP: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio.

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Nebraska 2nd District, Utah.

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

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Follow AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/El_Swan

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Want to chart your own path along the Road to 270? Figure out how Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can get the Electoral College votes they'll need to win the White House with AP's interactive map: http://interactives.ap.org/2016/road-to-270

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