Holliday: What will tournament time bring for NC State, Duke and UNC?

With the ACC Tournament tipping off and Selection Sunday around the corner, let's take a look at where we've been and where we can expect our Triangle teams to end up.

Despite a historic start, NC State heads to Washington D.C. in a tailspin. The Wolfpack started ACC play 5-1, its best beginning in conference play for 35 years. But a second half defensive letdown at home against Virginia Tech changed the direction of this season.

Since that 84-78 loss, State has beaten only Miami, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Clemson; the latter being the Pack’s only Quad I win in 2024. Kevin Keatts’ team has now dropped four straight contests, most recently 81-73 Saturday night at Pittsburgh.

To make matters worse, State star D.J. Horne suffered a leg injury, and left the game in the first half. His status for the ACC Tournament is not known.

Also NC State has gotten a late season lift from Mo Diarra, who can also make a three, but mostly adds interior scoring and rebounding when Keatts uses a bigger lineup.

Wolfpack look to start ACC Tournament on the right foot

Back in January the Wolfpack was forcing 13 turnovers a game. Now it’s just 11. Pitt, Saturday, turned it over just 5 times.

NC State ranks 9th in ACC play in both field goal percentage defense and three point percentage defense. Defending the three point line has always been a staple of the Keatts system. The Pack is now allowing 75 points per game.

Rebounding is a mixed bag. State is among the top four offensive rebounding teams in ACC play, but at the other end of the floor this team cleans the glass just 70% of the time. State ranks 13th in defensive rebounding percentage which means the Wolfpack often has to play an extra 20 seconds on defense. Sometimes more.

If Horne can’t play to his usual level of effectiveness, it’s hard to see State winning more than one game. And indeed the Wolfpack is no lock to beat #15 seed Louisville.

Maybe if streaky Jayden Taylor pours in 28 points again as he did at Pitt (5-10 from 3) or if ice cold Casey Morsell catches fire suddenly, the Pack would have a chance to win more than one game. Looking at Morsell, he is State’s most versatile player. He does everything on the court except shoot. Morsell’s slump has reduced his three point field goal percentage to 28%. Morsell shoots 41% overall. Morsell and his teammates need to do a better job defending the three point line.

Potential second round opponent Syracuse defeated the Pack twice, shooting 39% from beyond the arc in one game and 52% from 3 in the other.

There is a small chance State could win two games but then the Thursday opponent is Duke. The Blue Devils outscored this NC State team 49-31 in the second half at PNC Arena last week.

NC State must win the ACC Tournament to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack last won the ACC Tournament in 1987.

Duke lost its first conference game at Georgia Tech when sophomore stalwart Tyrese Proctor was only able to play one minute.

In January, Duke suffered a rare home loss to Pitt. The Blue Devils had clobbered the Panthers in the previous meeting by 22 points. But neither Jeremy Roach nor Mark Mitchell played in the rematch at Cameron. Blake Hinson led Pitt to an upset, 80-76 and afterward celebrated by climbing on a table and pointing at the crowd. Duke Coach Jon Scheyer made no allowance for injuries. “This,” he said, “must never happen again.”

Duke was at full strength for the first game at UNC but lost 93-84. Scheyer was quite outspoken about his feelings that the Blue Devils did not play with enough effort. Duke later lost a close game at Wake Forest and then dropped the rematch with UNC 84-79.

Still, over the course of the season the Blue Devils have piled up 5 Quad I wins. Now though, Duke has another injury. Guard Caleb Foster’s foot has kept him out of four games. The Blue Devils’ postseason backcourt depth would get a much needed boost if Foster can return, but that may not happen during the ACC Tournament.

Duke played better during the second half of the conference schedule due to improvement defensively. Headed into the tournament, Duke ranks second in the league in three point percentage (32%). Teams shoot just 44% against Duke overall, which ranks fifth in the league. Those numbers look much better than they did in January.

The Blue Devils are among the favorites in the 2024 ACC Tournament, but some things have to fall in place.

The Blue Devils will most likely face Syracuse, a team Duke defeated 86-66 in early January. But note, since February 7, the much improved Orange has gone 6-3 with a victory over UNC. 'Cuse, led offensively by Chris Bell, is streaky good from three point land. I mean Bell shoots 42%. Maliq Brown and Judah MIntz rank 1 & 3 in steals during conference play. Syracuse forces a whopping 14 turnovers per game. So Duke must take care of the basketball or it could face an early exit from the tournament.

Looking beyond that, the Blue Devils need to follow their good defensive possessions with a clean defensive rebound. Duke got only 6 fast break points Saturday in the loss to UNC. Not getting defensive rebounds was a major reason. Individually, Duke needs consistent play from Filipowski. The 6’11 front line star has the occasional poor shooting night and is definitely foul prone. Currently he’s dealing with fallout from a non-call, when video shows he may have tripped UNC’s Harrison Ingram.

Coach Scheyer has gone to bigger lineups of late, playing Mitchell, Ryan Young, Sean Stewart and T.J. Power. Those guys aren’t always big scorers. They hit a collective 10 points vs. UNC Saturday in 49 minutes of play. So Duke’s guards need to shoot well. Jeremy Roach (44%), Jared McCain (41%), and Tyrese Proctor (37%) all average in double figures. Duke must hit free throws, especially late in the game.

And the Blue Devils must keep their poise. Four turnovers in the final 1:30 in the frenzied atmosphere of the Joel Coliseum probably cost Duke that game at Wake Forest. Maybe a neutral floor will help with care of the basketball. And if by chance Caleb Foster can play sometime this week that gives Duke an extra push. Still, Duke has enough things going its way as it is to leave Washington with a #2 NCAA seed in its pocket.

With a strong ACC Tournament, Duke should be a #2 seed. Depending on what happens in other conference tournaments, Duke could slip to a #3 if the Blue Devils lose Thursday but that’s unlikely.

North Carolina defeated nemesis Pitt on the road in early January, and that helped propel the Tar Heels to a 9-0 start in ACC play. But four days before Duke’s visit to Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels suffered a stunning loss at Georgia Tech. Damon Stoudamire’s giant killers also beat Duke, Clemson, and Syracuse but lost to pretty much everybody else. Tech shot 45% from three in that 74-73 win.

The Tar Heels of course bounced back to beat the Blue Devils 93-84, holding the ACC’s premiere 3 point shooting team to a mere 26% from beyond the arc. Then two nights later UNC lost at home to Clemson. The Tigers shot 36% from 3, well above UNC’s average percentage of three pointers allowed – 31%. Carolina lost just once more – at Syracuse – because of, you guessed it, 3-point shooting. The Orange hit a monstrous 47% in that 86-79 win, after the Heels had clobbered Syracuse at home a month earlier.

North Carolina through the years has been torched by the 3 point shot. But this team is different. Hubert Davis’ bunch is pretty good on offense, too, and dominant on the boards. So, Carolina heads to D.C. riding a 6-game winning streak.

Also, UNC played two really tight games against Florida State. In early December at the Smith Center, UNC needed to employ a full court press in the second half to overcome a double digit Seminoles lead. Then in Tallahassee, the Heels had to overcome another FSU lead. In Elliott Cadeau’s breakout game (16 points/6 assists) UNC rallied to win 85-78 despite committing 17 turnovers which resulted in the ‘Noles scoring 26 points off those turnovers.

Nothing is guaranteed against either of those foes Thursday, especially with a noon start against a team that already has a game under its belt. Looking beyond Thursday Pitt and Wake Forest are also in the bracket, along with tournament desperados #12 Notre Dame and #13 Georgia Tech.

UNC’s offensive numbers are more pedestrian, just 9th in the league in both field goal percentage and 3 point shooting in ACC play. But the Tar Heels still lead the league in scoring with 79 points per game. How do they do it? First they rebound more than 33% of their missed shots. This means more scoring opportunities for the ACC’s leading scorer R. J. Davis, who averages 21 points in conference play. Second, because of defensive rebounding, the Heels regularly get into transition and Cadeau really pushes the basketball. Third, the Tar Heels get a lot of paint points, not only because Armando Bacot is the league’s most experienced post presence, but also because Davis, Cadeau, Ingram, Cormack Ryan, and Seth Trimble all have the ability to attack the basket.

Here’s another weakness: turnover margin. UNC gives up 10 plus turnovers a game but forces just 9. At home, the Heels have shown the ability to press and get more takeaways with the crowd roaring behind them. But can they do that on a neutral court if they need to? Big question.

Assuming UNC survives Thursday, the Tar Heel bench could play a big part during this ACC Tournament. Davis is using more players this season, usually nine. But minutes are sometimes limited, depending on the flow of the game. Yet, with games on two or three consecutive nights, the likes of Trimble, Jae’lyn Withers, Jalen Washington and Paxson Wojcik may get more court time. The better those guys play, the more Davis can rest his starters, which could be a huge help for the squad Friday/Saturday and beyond.

I expect North Carolina to play for yet one more D.C. conference championship Saturday night – if the Tar Heels manage end-game situations. And they could very well see Duke advancing to the finals from the other side of the bracket.

Ryan's career night leads UNC to sweep of Duke, regular-season ACC title

In this first week of legalized betting in North Carolina, this is what so many fans want.

Note this: Dean Smith used to say it’s extremely difficult to beat a really good team three straight times. On the other hand, no ACC team has claimed an ACC Tournament title on the court after winning the regular season, since Virginia in 2018. This UNC team wants to create its own history.

UNC is squarely positioned for a #2 seed, with a chance to earn a #1 seed if the Tar Heels win the ACC Tournament and one or two current top seeds suffer a bad loss in their conference tournaments.