Holliday: UNC and Duke are back atop the ACC ahead of Saturday showdown

Damon Stoudamire’s Georgia Tech team is arguably the most mercurial club in recent ACC history. I mean the Yellow Jackets have a record of 3-7 in the ACC and 10-11 overall. And yet GT has beaten nationally ranked Mississippi State, Penn State, Duke, nearly Duke again, Clemson at Clemson, and now UNC. If Stoudamire could get his young guys to play against Boston College and Notre Dame as well as they do against ranked teams he would be coach of the year.

So UNC’s long winning streak comes to an end. Still, this GT upset should not remove any of the luster of Saturday’s meeting between UNC and Duke.

Result: Duke has been in and out of second place, scrapping for position in the league standings with the likes of NC State, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest.

Paxson Wojcik scored just two points at Florida State Saturday, but his tip in late in the first half might have been one of the game’s most important baskets, stopping the bleeding after a hemorrhage of UNC turnovers. And maybe Wojcik’s put back was symbolic. His father Doug was an assistant coach for the Tar Heels in 2001, the last time UNC started 9-0 in ACC play. One could even argue that without Paxson’s big play underneath, UNC would have left Tallahassee 8-1.

Carolina started well at FSU but Florida State completely took over the game in the last 6 ½ minutes of the first half after emerging freshman point guard Elliott Cadeau went to the bench with his second foul. By the time Wojcik collected his all important rebound basket, FSU had blitzed the Heels 14-5. The Seminoles’ run was fueled heavily by turnovers, which were committed largely because Cadeau was no longer on the floor. Florida State scored 19 first half points off UNC turnovers in the first half. The Noles could easily have led by 8 or 10 at the break, but thanks to Wojcik and the only field goal the Heels scored in the last four minutes, UNC trailed just 5.

Cadeau returned in the second half, and the Tar Heels retook the lead. Sparked by Cadeau’s 9 points and multiple assists, UNC outscored FSU 24-11 to start the second stanza. The Seminoles simply could not stay in front of the lightning quick freshman from New Jersey. Finally in desperation, Coach Leonard Hamilton put 6’11 Baba Miller on Cadeau. Miller stopped Cadeau’s layups, but his man got to the free throw line time after time. Cadeau made 8 of 9 at the charity stripe, showing increasing confidence as the game rolled along.

Here’s the other thing about Cadeau. He relieves R.J. Davis of his ball handling responsibilities, allowing RJD to concentrate on scoring. Davis knocked in 24 points at FSU. Write this down-21 of those points came when Cadeau was on the floor. Amy questions?

Davis did not have a great day beyond the arc, making just 2-8. But with threes not falling, Davis attacked the paint. He scored in transition twice. When the Noles got back on defense, he showed his full arsenal, stopping and popping from 10 feet, hitting a step through down the stretch, and then hitting the second half’s biggest shot, putting up a softer jumper, a floater that rolled in after FSU had cut the UNC lead to two. Davis then made three free throws to put the game away.

As much as Cadeau and Davis meant to UNC’s success, the Tar Heels would not have won without the all around performance of forward Harrison Ingram. The 6’9 transfer hit 3 of 4 from beyond the arc, finishing with 13 points and 17 rebounds. Ingram also made the game’s biggest defensive play, erasing a Jamir Watkins jump shot in the closing seconds, to put an exclamation point on UNC’s hard earned 75-68 win.

Rick Barnes was coach at Clemson the last time the Tigers won at Cameron. And that early January game in 1995 was significant; it marked the end of the season for Mike Krzyzewski. The legendary coach spent the rest of the campaign on medical leave.

Clemson nearly ended the 29 year drought Saturday. P.J. Hall made two free throws to put the Tigers on top 71-70 with just 7 seconds left.

Tyrese Proctor's late free throws help No. 12 Duke hold off Clemson 72-71

Duke sent star guard Tyrese Proctor toward the Clemson basket. Officials called a foul on Josh Beadle, drawing visibly angry reactions from Coach Brad Brownell and guard Joe Girard. Proctor though, coolly made the free throws for Duke’s sixth ACC win of the season.

Few Duke fans expected a photo finish the way the game played out in the first half. Thanks to 46% shooting from three by Proctor and company, Duke built a 12 point lead at 32-20.

However the Tigers clawed their way back in the second half. Clemson didn’t shoot well, just 38%, but dominated the glass even with Mark Mitchell, Duke’s most consistent rebounder now back from injury. Hall and the indefatigable Ian Schieffelin helped the Tigers rebound 25% of their missed shots while limiting Duke to less than 10%.

Lost in the controversy over Clemson’ last second foul is that fact that the Tigers owned a four point lead with just over two minutes to go. But Duke made four steals on four consecutive Clemson possessions. The Blue Devils had some trouble capitalizing but leading scorer Jared McCain (21 points) took one of those steals 94 feet four two. And Kyle Filipowski, plagued by foul trouble and poor free throw shooting, made a nifty spin move for a bucket and drew the foul. Filipowski, who made just 5-11 at the line against Clemson, knocked in the free shot after his field goal. That put Duke back on top 70-69.

There was a great deal of drama in the closing moments’ exchange of free throws by Hall and Proctor. But ultimately Duke owned a one point margin at the final buzzer.

The other big news was that team leader Jeremy Roach was able to play 25 minutes on his injured ankle against Clemson. Roach went just 1-8 from the floor but steadied the team in the game’s late stages. But Roach appeared much healthier at Virginia Tech, playing 29 minutes and more or less dominating the game.

Before the injuries to Roach and Mitchell, Duke routed Pitt at Pitt 75-53, shooting 52%. Several weeks followed where Duke was so-so, almost losing a second time to Georgia Tech and then losing to Pitt. Even the Clemson win did not evoke memories of early January. But then Monday in Blacksburg, the Blue Devils looked like their old dominating selves. Man did they dominate!

Although Duke committed 14 turnovers at Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils generally take good care of the basketball. We have played enough conference games now that to me the ACC-only stats are the most meaningful as to how a team is playing these days. Duke turns the ball over just 9.13 times in ACC games. Only Virginia (9.0) is better. North Carolina commits almost 12 turnovers per game and of course turned it over 17 times at Florida State.

Again give Duke the edge. The Blue Devils connect on 44.6% of their shots overall to 43.9% for the Tar Heels. Three point marksmanship is even more in Duke’s favor. The Blue Devils connect 39% of the time (53% at VT). UNC has really struggled beyond the arc in ACC games; just 32.6% and that’s 3 points below their seasonal norm. In the loss at Georgia Tech, the Heels made just 8-28, about 28%. So three point shooting is once again becoming a big problem for the Heels late in the season. Sound familiar? UNC does have the edge at the free throw line 76-72%. Duke hit just 60% in Blacksburg.

This is a UNC strong point. Led by Harrison Ingram and Armando Bacot, UNC is far and away the ACC’s best rebounding team, out boarding opponents by 12 per game. The Heels grab 35% of their missed shots while allowing opponents an offensive rebound just 21% of the time. Both of those marks lead the league. Meanwhile Duke’s rebound margin is just +1, although the Devils overwhelmed VT 38-20 on the glass at the Cassell. On the other hand Duke, which ranks in the middle of the league in terms of offensive and defense rebounding percentages, was crushed on the boards at home last Saturday against Clemson.

The Blue Devils force 12 turnovers a game, and that’s one of the league’s best numbers. Indeed, Duke guards, against Clemson, stole the ball four times in the final two minutes. That was a huge factor in the Blue Devils overcoming Clemson’s 69-65 lead. UNC on the other hand gets fewer than 10 takeaways per game. I would note however, the Tar Heels have pressed effectively at times, including in the last two minutes in Atlanta though Carolina came up one turnover short of victory.

This season UNC is first and foremost a defensive team. The Tar Heels are holding opponents to 36.9% from the floor and 24.9% from beyond the arc. In 50 years of covering Carolina basketball these are numbers I’ve never seen. Duke is well behind those ACC leading numbers, allowing 44% overall and 35% from three. Also UNC also has an edge near the basket. Armando Bacot leads the ACC in blocked shots and is a huge factor generally in UNC’s success at the defensive end.

Cadeau benefits a good deal from Bacot’s screens. How will Duke respond to those screens? Cadeau sometimes puts up the short jumper, but more often attacks the basket. Does Duke try to stop the ball, or allow Cadeau to dish to Bacot or Ingram underneath-or allow the kickout to R.J. Davis? Pretty hard to stop all of those options once Cadeau gets into the lane. On the other hand Georgia Tech simply attacked Cadeau defensively and that worked pretty well. The kid fouled out with 5:49 left in the game.

Duke lost at home to Pitt when Roach did not play and barely defeated Clemson when Roach barely played. But Roach looked to be full throttle in Blacksburg where he scored 16 points on 4-5 from three, and handed out four assists. Of course Roach is a 90% free throw shooter and made his two shots from the stripe. Take that away and Duke makes just 50% of its free throws vs VT which won’t be enough Saturday. One has to think Roach will continue to improve physically, and the importance of his presence cannot be overstated. Roach has played more games in the rivalry with UNC than any of his teammates. His savvy will be invaluable as Duke tries to break down the stingy UNC defense. Roach’s return along with Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor, and Caleb Foster gives the Devils a deeper backcourt than UNC, which could be a factor late in the game when fatigue and foul trouble come into play. And did I mention? Roach is a 90% foul shooter?

Jon Scheyer loves the three point shot in transition. He calls that “a Duke shot.” And so it is, dating all the way back to 2001 when the Blue Devils set an ACC record for most three point shots in a single season. UNC holds opponents to 24.9% from beyond the arc in the half court. But can the Tar Heels get back on defense quickly enough to stop the Duke transition three? This was a problem in Atlanta as Georgia Tech hit 9 of 20, 45% from beyond the arc. Transition threes hurt UNC in that defeat.

Both Bacot and Filipowski have been foul prone. If either of them gets two quick ones and misses significant playing time in the first half, that could tilt the table in the opponents’ favor. Bacot has done a better job of staying out of foul trouble in recent games but has a history of missing game time and also playing with two, three, or four fouls. Filipowski picked up four fouls at Virginia Tech and fouled out completely against Clemson. Duke’s guards don’t seem particularly foul prone but Cadeau is still learning how to play without fouling. When he picks up a second foul in the first half, Hubert Davis always sits him. UNC’s offense is not nearly the same without him. Again, as we saw at Georgia Tech, Cadeau can pick up fouls in a hurry, and that almost incapacitates his team.

Mark Mitchell is a critical force inside and on the boards for Duke. Filipowski is much more effective scoring and rebounding when Mitchell is in the game. Mitchell, like Roach, did not play in Duke’s most recent loss at home against Pitt. Mitchell is one of the ACC’s top 15 rebounders.

On the other hand, Ingram is #1 in conference play. Ingram possesses comparable skills to Mitchell around the basket. But Ingram is a better three-point shooter. Ingram runs hot and cold from beyond the arc, but if he can pull Mitchell away from the basket to defend the three, that opens more possibilities for the Heels inside.

Ingram was 3-14 against GT and just 2-7 from three. If he shoots like that Saturday, Mark Mitchell is going to have a big day defensively and on the glass.

Duke is largely seven deep right now, though Sean Stewart picked up a few minutes in both the Clemson and Virginia Tech games. Those seven are all big factors in the game. At VT, Roach came off the bench and played 29 great minutes. Caleb Foster started but then sat for awhile as Roach played. Foster was on the court for 15 minutes and scored 8 points. Pretty productive. And Ryan Young played 15 minutes due to Filipowski’s foul trouble. Young hit double figures with 10 points and 5 rebounds. Also productive.

UNC typically goes 9 or 10 deep, as Hubert Davis continues to make much better use of his bench this season. Be sure that Saturday, Jae’lyn Withers and Jalen Washington will both see floor time providing rest for Bacot and Ingram. Paxson Wojcik and especially Seth Trimble may also be factors in the game. I would especially think that Trimble will get major minutes against Duke’s ultra deep back court.

Coach Davis sometimes uses another reserve or two but it’s hard to know now who that may be. Washington played 11 strong minutes at Tech after seeing his playing time reduced. Late in the first half he was UNC’s best player on the floor. We’ll see if he gets that kind of playing time against Duke.

UNC is undefeated at home this season, and the Tar Heels play much better at home in ACC games than on the road. On the road, UNC’s margin of victory is just 10 points per game. But at home the Heels are winning by 20. Overall UNC’s margin of victory in conference play is 15 points per game, tops in the league by a wide margin. But Duke will present the season’s biggest challenge at the Smith Center.