Holliday: Pack, Heels headed for showdown of undefeateds

UNC and NC State have identical records, 3-0 in the ACC and 11-3 overall. But the Tar Heels have moved up to #10 in the NET.

Posted 11:06 p.m. Jan 9 — Updated 9:47 p.m. Jan 10

Bob Holliday

, WRAL Sports contributor

Last Wednesday, D.J. Burns hit the two baskets that spared NC State a defeat at Notre Dame, listed at #181 in the latest NET rankings. On Saturday Burns played passer in a surprisingly easy win over Virginia.

Tony Bennett’s bunch of course double teams every entry to the post. Burns passed out of the Cavalier traps four times, leading to three shots from beyond the arc and a backdoor layup. Burns only scored six conventional points but he accounted for 11 more.

Burns’ unselfishness spread to his teammates, producing some of the best ball movement by any Kevin Keatts team against Virginia’s pack line defense. Result: State stuck 35% of its three pointers, and the Pack shot 62% (18-29) from inside the arc. Five different Wolfpack players hit threes, led by Dennis Parker, Jayden Taylor and D.J. Horne.

Their success opened the middle for those higher percentage shots inside. And though in past seasons the Cavs’ suffocating pressure often led to desperation heaves at the end of the shot clock or even shot clock violations, we saw none of that Saturday.

State’s offensive performance marked a dramatic turn-around from the narrow escape at South Bend, when the Wolfpack shot 3-17 from beyond the arc and a paltry 28% overall. These numbers resulted from lack of movement and not nearly enough passing. And good defense obviously by Notre Dame.

State recorded just five assists against the Irish; about one-third the total Saturday against UVA.

The Keatts formula calls for shooting more threes than the opponent and winning the turnover battle. NC State put up 28 trifectas to just 15 for Virginia. Though both teams shot about the same percentage, State’s “extra threes” were the difference in a 76-60 game. And the Wolfpack forced Virginia into 8 turnovers while coughing up the basketball just six times. This is the first time all season Virginia committed more turnovers than its opponent.

Parker, Taylor score 15 each, NC State rolls past Virginia 76-60

The Virginia win is State’s best of the season as Bennett’s team is ranked #55 in the NET. NC State, currently #65, needs more wins like this one Saturday to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume.

Tar Heels on the move

UNC and NC State have identical records, 3-0 in the ACC and 11-3 overall. But the Tar Heels have moved up to #10 in the NET. UNC has played a difficult schedule losing only to Villanova in overtime (NET #34), Kentucky (NET #17), and UConn (NET #7). The Tar Heels have wins over Arkansas, which was Quad I at the time, along with Tennessee (NET #5) and Oklahoma (NET #22). Last week the Heels picked up their third Quad I win at Pitt (#53 NET). On Saturday Carolina picked up another big victory beating Clemson at Clemson. The Tigers are #23 in the NET and own the ACC’s best victory as a conference, having beaten #6 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Davis, Bacot lead No. 8 North Carolina to 65-55 victory over 16th-ranked Clemson

Defense paved the way for UNC at Littlejohn – that is apart from Ian Schiefflin who poured in 16 points, grabbed 11 boards, blocked four shots and made five steals. But the Tar Heels neutralized two of Clemson’s biggest threats, P.J. Hall and Joe Girardi. Armando Bacot limited Hall to 5-13 from the floor and just 5 rebounds. It was a Tar Heel team effort that shut down Girardi; the former Syracuse star made just one basket in ten tries.

Carolina was especially effective defensively beyond the arc as Clemson made just one three pointer in 18 attempts.

UNC as a team has not allowed more than 69 points in a game since mid-December. And the last three opponents have scored 60, 57, and 55 points.

The Tar Heels needed a great defensive effort at Clemson because the offense came up short in several key areas. UNC did not score a single fast break point Saturday, and turned the ball over 10 times. The Tar Heels committed more fouls than Clemson and spotted the Tigers 5 extra points at the free throw line. UNC, one of the nation’s best at getting to the charity stripe, shot just 12 free throws at Clemson and made only 7.

What’s more, most of UNC’s key scorers did not shoot well from the floor. Only Bacot, (6-11) and Cormac Ryan (4-8) shot 50%. The other starters and key reserve Seth Trimble hit a combined 10-30.

But the Tar Heels did rebound 40% of their missed shots and actually dominated the glass both ways. Bacot alone snared 16 rebounds.

Also this team made clutch three pointers when needed. During a span of five minutes in the second half, Harrison Ingram, R.J. Davis, Paxson Wojcik, and Trimble all drained big shots from beyond the arc. UNC trailed by two before this flurry but moved ahead by four at the eight minute mark. The Heels built their final margin of victory from there.

Still, UNC will have to play better offense Wednesday night at PNC Arena.

UNC vs NC State: Things to watch for

Fouls and free throws: North Carolina leads the ACC in free throws attempted by a wide margin and the Tar Heels make 77% of those shots. Can NC State, which commits 15 fouls per game, keep the Heels off the line as Clemson did? Also, NC State ranks 11th in the ACC shooting free throws. Can the Wolfpack have a good night at the line, maybe 75%?

Turnovers: NC State, leads the ACC in turnover margin. Can the Wolfpack get steals from Jayden Taylor, D.J. Horne and the rest of the crew? UNC commits 10 turnovers per game. Live ball turnovers can produce fast break points for the Wolfpack; much needed since the Pack would not have to set up on those possessions against UNC’s improving half court defense.

3 point battle: NC State ranks among the league leaders in three point shot attempts. It’s the Keatts philosophy. The Wolfpack makes a respectable 34% of these, but UNC limits opponents to just 30% from beyond the arc. Going the other way, UNC shoots less but makes more. Led by Davis, the Tar Heels make 36% from three. Also NC State ranks 12th in 3 point defense as teams hit 33% against the Pack.

Post: Can D.J. Burns get to his spots inside? Bacot Saturday did a great job of keeping P.J. Hall away from his comfort zones. UNC does not double team the post so Burns won’t have as many passing options as he did against UVA. Can he beat Bacot 1 on 1? Corollary: Can Burns defend Bacot without fouling?

Glass: UNC was badly out-rebounded in December by UConn, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. The Tar Heels lost two of those three games. But they dominated the glass against Pitt and Clemson and seem to have their glass groove back. Can NC State, which is somewhere in the middle of the ACC in rebounding stats, hold its own on the boards, especially against Bacot who leads the league with 11 boards per game?

Bench: NC State scored 21 bench points in the win over Virginia, including 8 from Ben Middlebrooks who could play a key role going against Bacot. Also, Michael O’Connell is seeing more minutes to great effect. O’Connell earned 5 of State’s 14 assists Saturday in 27 minutes of playing time. The Pack’s half court offense just moves better when O’Connell is on the court. As to UNC, 10 Tar Heels scored at Clemson now that Coach Hubert Davis is using his bench more. Trimble is UNC’s most versatile sub, a 6’3 athlete who can defend, rebound, attack the basket, and help run the offense. Elliott Cadeau starts but the young freshman can be foul prone. Cadeau played 19 minutes Saturday while Trimble logged 21. Inside, UNC gets bench help from both Jalen Washington and Jae’lyn Withers. Bench play could very well determine who wins Wednesday night.

Home court: Bacot led UNC to an 84-74 win at PNC Arena in 2022. Each team won on its home court last year. The big news is that NC State is now really on a roll at PNC Arena. State has won 22 of its last 24 at home and is unbeaten this season.

I personally cannot wait for the Wednesday night tipoff.

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