Holliday: NC State Wolfpack running out of time to bolster NCAA Tournament resume

NC State's men's basketball team started the season with a 5-1 ACC record, but has since struggled to maintain its momentum.

Posted 10:26 p.m. Feb 12 — Updated 2:45 p.m. Feb 16

Bob Holliday

, WRAL Sports contributor

RALEIGH, N.C. — Less than a month ago, NC State was enjoying its best conference start as a program since the days of Jim Valvano in the late 80s. The Wolfpack started 5-1 in ACC play, with its only loss to nationally ranked North Carolina.

The five wins included a signature take down of Virginia 76-60 and a hard fought win at PNC Arena over Big Four rival Wake Forest.

Now, NC State in mid-January was no NET juggernaut. Lacking a Quad I win, NC State struggled to crack the top 60. Still, because the Pack was winning 83% of its ACC games it seemed only a matter of time until State would start piling up some Quad I victories.

Then came the loss to Virginia Tech.

In contrast to the Pack, the Hokies were something of a NET darling, largely due to their win over Iowa State. The Hokies could be found in the NET 50s, even 40s, most any week.

But here’s the thing. When Virginia Tech came to Raleigh, the Hokies were just 2-4 in conference play. And yet, NC State, which in the Kevin Keatts era has normally defended the three-point shot very well, allowed Virginia Tech to bury 9 of 19 shots from beyond the arc. It didn’t help that the Wolfpack also committed 18 turnovers that day. The Pack has been struggling to get traction ever since.

State played well enough in the next game, a rematch with Virginia, which now has the ACC’s longest winning streak. The Wolfpack rallied from nine down to force overtime. But the Pack came up empty in the in the first four possessions of overtime and lost 59-53.

A few days later, Keatts’ team suffered through its poorest performance of the season losing on the road at Syracuse by double digits.

Keatts was able to rally the team for back to back home wins against Miami and Georgia Tech. But I would note, Miami is not great defensively and Georgia Tech strangely only beats the top teams — Duke, Clemson, and UNC. The Yellow Jackets have lost to everyone else.

Still, at 7-4 State was in position to make a push for the ACC’s top four and a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

But all that was undone by one more loss in a “can’t lose it game,” 67-64 to Pitt. The Panthers do own a Quad I win at Duke and they rank No. 59 in the latest NET. At the same time, Pitt was two notches below NC State in the ACC standings. At home, this was a game State had to win. The Wolfpack though, made just 6-15 free throws, while Pitt hit 18-20. That’s a 12-point differential right there in a three-point game. Also, Pitt dominated the glass 37-28. That loss made Saturday’s trip to Wake Forest all the more important.

Wake Forest of course, has its own NCAA Tournament work to do. With the NET emphasis on scoring margin, Wake rose swiftly in the NET following Deacon wins over Syracuse and Georgia Tech, both by a whopping 29 points. The Deacs skyrocketed to No. 33 from the 50s in a very short time.

Still, the Deacons were just 7-4 in the ACC and were not listed in Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament bracket. In sum, Wake was going to be very motivated and a very tough out for NC State at the Joel, especially coming just a couple of weeks after the technical foul ridden battle the teams had waged in Raleigh.

NC State made its free throws against Wake. The problem was the Pack did not get enough of them. State made 8-11 while the Deacons got 21 chances at the line and cashed in 17 times. NC State out fouled the home team 21-11!

For me, that was the game. That and some players seemed to run out of gas in the late stages. D.J. Burns for instance. Burns, who averages 25 minutes per game played 30 minutes. He scored 14 points but all in the first 16 minutes of the second half. Over the final 4:21 Burns’ worksheet included a missed free throw, a foul, a turnover and a missed jumper with 38 seconds left and the score tied.

Meanwhile, Hunter Sallis took over the game against the Wolfpack’s tiring defenders, scoring 6 of his 33 points in the final couple of minutes.

State actually played better in losing at Wake than in some home ACC wins. The score in Winston was 79-79 with 26 seconds left. And in fact Horne had a jumper to force overtime with three seconds left. Yet in the final analysis this was a missed opportunity for a Quad I win for the Wolfpack. State could have also moved into the ACC’s top four.

Keatts joked after the loss about how this win for Wake might push the Deacons into the NET’s top 30, thereby giving the Pack a Quad I win for the game at PNC. Alas, it didn’t work that way. The NET actually dropped Wake from 33 to 36 after this narrow win. NC State, meanwhile did not drop, remaining at 80. At least there is that.

How NC State can the 2024 NCAA Tournament

The Wolfpack could theoretically win the ACC Tournament, although that drought also extends to the Valvano days: The Pack last won the ACC Tournament in 1987. I do think State has a path to the postseason in the ACC’s regular season, but it is narrow with little margin for error.

State faces a daunting schedule starting Saturday at Clemson. The good news in the schedule is that there are plenty of opportunities for much-needed Quad I wins.

However, this team faces a very tough start. Clemson has been a problem for NC State. The Pack lost three times to the Tigers last year, even though State and not Clemson was rewarded with an NCAA bid. That was a sore point with Brad Brownell’s bunch.

The big story is that State has not beaten Clemson since before the pandemic in 2020. Moreover, the Pack’s last win at Clemson came in 2015 when Mark Gottfried was coach. No Kevin Keatts team has ever won at Littlejohn Coliseum.

It’s back to Raleigh the following week. State must take care of business against Boston College and Syracuse. This team cannot afford a bad home loss.

Feb. 27 finds a potentially pivotal game at Florida State. The Seminoles actually rank below the Wolfpack in the NET, checking in at No. 96. But the Seminoles have great size and they lead the league in steals. When FSU shots are falling this team is very difficult to beat at home. The Noles almost beat Virginia Saturday.

State then finishes with three straight Quad I games: at UNC, home to Duke, and finishing in Pittsburgh. As long as Pitt remains in the top 75 of the NET, a win at the Peterson Events Center counts as Quad I. Also, if Virginia, currently No. 32 makes it into the top 30 then State’s January victory over the Cavaliers becomes a Quad I win.

To make the NCAA, State will have to climb 40-45 places; that means winning the remaining Quad I games—at least three, probably all four—and not suffering any bad losses.

What has to change?

Work the glass: NC State is a pretty decent rebounding team on the offensive end, but the Wolfpack ranks last in the ACC in defensive rebounding. That liability has cost the Pack some games this winter. Part of the issue is that the Kevin Keatts system typically uses four guards and one big man. The idea is to force turnovers and get into transition. Keatts went with a bigger lineup at Wake. D.J. Burns logged 30 minutes. Improving Mo Diarra played 33 minutes en route to a double double, and Ben Middlebrooks got 10 minutes of court time. With two bigs on the floor, State limited Wake Forest to just 5 offensive rebounds. Improvement!
Fouls and free throws: Over the course of the season, State has committed 405 fouls—almost two per game more than its opponents. Fouls were a huge factor in the Wake Forest loss. As to free throws, State ranks fourth in conference play at 77%. Yet the team was just 6-15 against Pitt, which again was a huge factor in a loss. This team needs consistency.
Another 3-point shooter: D.J. Horne shoots 43% from beyond the arc. No one else is close. Should say Duke, or UNC, give Horne special treatment defensively, the Wolfpack would be hard pressed to hit 30% of its threes. Jayden Taylor is a great defender but is streaky from three. He was 1-8 at Wake. Casey Morsell may be State’s most versatile player; but though he does a bit of everything pretty well, he shoots 27% from three. Reserve Dennis Parker shoots 31% from three. For a system predicated on shooting and making more threes than the opposition, those numbers are not good enough.
Get better shots inside: NC State is making just 46% of its two point attempts in conference games. That percentage should be higher. The Wolfpack often takes difficult shots inside. That’s part of the problem. Taylor, for example is shooting only 45% inside the arc, because he often attempts contested drives. The two point percentage will go up if the big men get more shots. Keatts understandably wants to limit Burns’ playing time so that he’s better rested at the end of games. But Diarra and Middlebrooks can also score. Michael O’Connell is State’s best passer. Look for him to try to get the ball to the bigs more often. I mean State ranks 13th in three point shooting. Most teams can’t win that way. Need better scoring from inside the arc.

The ACC is a strong league with 11 Quad I wins over non-conference opponents and a 9-3 advantage over the Big Twelve, generally considered America’s toughest league this season. That said NC State’s route to the top is fraught with great competition. The Wolfpack is not likely to make the NCAA field, let’s be clear. But at this point, there is still a chance.

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