High School Sports

Here's why you shouldn't judge the RPI ratings system right now

When the N.C. High School Athletic Association released the first round of RPI ratings for football, volleyball, and boys soccer on Tuesday, I knew what was coming.

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By
Nick Stevens
, HighSchoolOT managing editor
When the N.C. High School Athletic Association released the first round of RPI ratings for football, volleyball, and boys soccer on Tuesday, I knew what was coming.

It was predictable because we've seen it before with the MaxPreps rankings. When the first version comes out, people automatically compare the rankings/ratings to their opinions of how teams will stand at the end of the season. Comparisons are fine, but there's a logic problem with that practice — we are not anywhere close to the end of the season and the RPI formula is not predicting outcomes of future games.

If you're upset because Team A would be in the playoffs if seeding was done today based on RPI ratings through five weeks of the season, well, take a deep breath.

For this fall, it's also important to point out the effects of COVID-19 on the RPI ratings. Many teams have missing games, which means the RPI ratings — which were designed to be released after teams hit the halfway point of the season — are still somewhat premature. There are still some football teams that have not played a game yet this season!

As more information is loaded into the RPI formula, as more games are played, as conference play gets underway, the picture will become clearer. More than likely, things will fall into place close to what you would expect.

By and large, that's what happened with the MaxPreps rankings (yes, there are some exceptions, don't blast me with them on Twitter). Playoff brackets were well done for the most part under MaxPreps. So am I sold on RPI too? I'm not sold yet, but I'm optimistic and open-minded.

The MaxPreps rankings were more complex and took more factors into account than RPI. Yes, I know you don't know the full MaxPreps formula, but we do know the factors that went into it. We know the entire RPI formula, and it's not nearly as complex. So my hesitation is not about using a computer formula, it's about whether or not enough data goes into the RPI formula to be as accurate as the MaxPreps rankings were.

But even with my reservations, it is too early for me (or you) to declare the RPI rating system flawed. There are a lot of games left to play. There is a lot of data left to enter into the formula.

One other thing: When judging this playoff system (or any other) it's important to take the 30,000-foot view. What happens every time we talk about a playoff format or a realignment process is people judge it from the perspective of a specific team, at a specific school, during a specific year. That's the wrong way to look at it. Whatever playoff system you prefer, someone is going to get a bad draw. There will always be a first team out, a last team in. It's about finding the best process for the largest majority possible.

Don't judge the RPI formula now, judge it when the final brackets come out later this fall. Trying to make declarations about the process at the midway point of the season will cloud your view of the format come playoff time. And you may end up liking it.

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